INDIVIDUAL WELFARE WHEN CONSUMERS CAN SHOP FOR HEALTH INSURANCE

The statewide system of health insurance exchanges established by the Affordable Care Act (ACA) of 2010 will allow millions of U.S. citizens to change their health care policies more easily than they can switch automobile or homeowner insurance coverages, because deniability based on prior claim history is illegal. Focusing on this consumer endogeneity of health insurance policy choice, we examine the individual moral hazard welfare implications of a reduction in the price of medical care, which is a potential consequence of the ACA. We show that endogenous policy choice plays a key role in determining the welfare outcome. While moral hazard welfare improvement is not precluded, a distinctly possible outcome is that the consumer revises his/her choice of insurance policy so as to retain some portion of the reduction in expenditure risk caused by the medical care price decrease. In this event, moral hazard welfare loss is higher than it was before the price decrease, although the increased loss is tempered by the endogenous contract choice effect. This result resuscitates an old conventional wisdom. (JEL I11, I13, I30)     

Online ghettoes,perils or supernannies? Australian young people with chronic illness and disability challenge some moral panics about young people online

Current literature focusing on young people’s digital technology use often reflects concerns that they may live virtual lives and withdraw from locally geographically situated spaces. It assumes the existence of a split between offline and online ‘worlds’ corresponding to ‘real ‘and ‘non-real’ respectively. This article reports research findings on how young people locate new social media technologies in their daily lives with particular focus on the relationship between their online and offline experiences. The voices of the young people guided the research, which found that their social media use contradicts conventional narratives of moral panic about the alleged unreality and fearful dangers of online spaces for young people.     

Predicting online gambling self-exclusion: an analysis of the performance of supervised machine learning models

As gambling operators become increasingly sophisticated in their analysis of individual gambling behaviour, this study evaluates the potential for using machine learning techniques to identify individuals who used self-exclusion tools out of a sample of 845 online gamblers, based on analysing trends in their gambling behaviour. Being able to identify other gamblers whose behaviour is similar to those who decided to use self-exclusion tools could, for instance, be used to share responsible gaming messages or other information that aids self-aware gambling and reduces the risk of adverse outcomes. However, operators need to understand how accurate models can be and which techniques work well. The purpose of the article is to identify the most accurate technique out of four highly diverse techniques and to discuss how to deal analytically and practically with a rare event like self-exclusion, which was used by fewer than 1% of gamblers in our data-set. We conclude that balanced training data-sets are necessary for creating effective models and that, on our data-set, the most effective method is the random forest technique which achieves an accuracy improvement of 35 percentage points versus baseline estimates.     

Deleuze and the grandeur of Palestine: Song of Earth and Resistance

The article re-examines the Deleuzian concept of cartography and opens on the question of that race a fortiori minor called to philosophy and the constitution of an earth. Who are these people? Who are these people who, according to Deleuze, are missing? What is their name and what is their territory? The problem of minorities, “of the missing people”, analysed by Deleuze through Kafka finds a resonance and a quite particular affinity – and in this way a designation and a name – through the struggle of the Palestinian people; deterritorialized, “inferior, dominated, always becoming”. Deleuze’s pro-Palestinian engagement in no way manifests a rupture between philosophy and politics, but establishes itself as the essential correlate of a philosophically dynamic, creative and resistant reflection whose tenor has been constantly written into the realm of politics. After nearly 30 years, Deleuze’s pro-Palestinian positions are today the object of severe criticism, if not a cabal, launched by Eric Marty and Roger-Pol Droit, who aim at exhuming Deleuze’s philosophical corpus in order to extract from it a so-called “anti-Semitic complacency”.     

Has the HIV Epidemic Peaked?

This study reviews the highly diverse regional and country patterns of HIV epidemics and discusses possible causes of the geographic variation in epidemic sizes. Past trends and projections of the epidemics are presented and the peak years of epidemics are estimated. The potential future impact of new prevention technologies is briefly assessed. A final section summarizes the future impact of the epidemic on key demographic variables. The main finding of this analysis is that the HIV epidemic reached a major turning point over the past decade. The peak years of HIV incidence rates are past for all regions, and the peaks of prevalence rates are mostly in the past except in Eastern Europe, where they are expected to peak in 2008. But owing in part to the life‐prolonging effect of antiretroviral therapy and to sustained population growth, the absolute number of infected individuals is expected to keep growing slowly in sub‐Saharan Africa and to remain near current levels worldwide, thus posing a continuing challenge to public health programs. No country is expected to see a decline in its population size between 2005 and 2050 that is attributable to high mortality related to AIDS.     

Unfinished business: ongoing ethical exceptionalism in the oversight of human pluripotent stem cell research in Canada

In this article, we critically examine the arguments for and against the exceptional status given human pluripotent stem cell research in Canada (through the latest [December 2010] revision of the Tri-Council Policy Statement: Ethical Conduct for Research Involving Humans), and conclude that this exceptionalism is unwarranted and ethically unsound. In our view, the three federal research granting agencies should honor their longstanding commitment that researchers, research sponsors, and Research Ethics Boards in Canada have access to "a single reference document for all research involving humans conducted under the auspices of institutions eligible for Agency funding." As well, responsibility for the development, interpretation, and implementation of Canada's research ethics guidelines should be under the authority of a single oversight body that is independent of the federal research granting Agencies.     

Parameter estimation of the flexible Weibull distribution for type I censored samples

Often in practice one is interested in the situation where the lifetime data are censored. Censorship is a common phenomenon frequently encountered when analyzing lifetime data due to time constraints. In this paper, the flexible Weibull distribution proposed in Bebbington et al. [A flexible Weibull extension, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Safety 92 (2007), pp. 719–726] is studied using maximum likelihood technics based on three different algorithms: Newton Raphson, Levenberg Marquardt and Trust Region reflective. The proposed parameter estimation method is introduced and proved to work from theoretical and practical point of view. On one hand, we apply a maximum likelihood estimation method using complete simulated and real data. On the other hand, we study for the first time the model using simulated and real data for type I censored samples. The estimation results are approved by a statistical test.     

Estimation of Change Point in Generalized Variance Control Chart

In this study, using maximum likelihood estimation, a considerably effective change point model is proposed for the generalized variance control chart in which the required statistics are calculated with its distributional properties. The procedure, when used with generalized variance control charts, would be helpful for practitioners both controlling the multivariate process dispersion and detecting the time of the change in variance-covariance matrix of a process. The procedure starts after the chart issues a signal. Several structural changes for the variance-covariance matrix are considered and the precision and the accuracy of the proposed method is discussed.