Analytical expressions for the average adjustment interval and mean squared deviation for bounded adjustment schemes

This paper presents analytical expressions for the average adjustment interval and the mean squared deviation from target of the “bounded adjustment” schemes of Box and Luceno (1997a) under the assumption that the disturbances are generated from a double-exponential distribution. The solutions obtained are very close to those computed numerically for normally distributed innovations. This not only demonstrates the robustness of the schemes to the distributional assumptions, but also provides new useful expressions for the average adjustment interval and mean squared deviation from target. Expressions for the characteristic and probability mass functions of the adjustment interval are also given.     

Underreporting of purchases of port wine

In this paper, we develop a new approach for modelling underreported Poisson counts. The parameters of the model are estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. An application to a real data set from a Portuguese marketing survey illustrates the fruitfulness of the approach. We find that purchases of bottles of port wine increase significantly with income class and the size of the household.