Linking Migration Intentions with Flows: Evidence and Potential Use

In the absence of reliable, internationally available migration flow data necessary for statistical forecasting, policymakers increasingly turn to survey data on emigration intentions to evaluate future migration trends. The important assumption – i.e. that there is a measurable and systematic relationship between the intention to migrate and actual migration – has not been firmly established at the international level. We examine the association between estimated population averages of emigration intentions and official migration flow data based on data for more than 160 countries. The results show a strong association between emigration intentions and recorded bilateral flows to industrialized countries, as well as between intentions and aggregated out‐migration. The results provide policymakers with a reliability assessment of survey data on emigration intentions and encourage future attempts to incorporate survey data in formal statistical migration forecasting models.     

M&A and diversification strategies: what effect on quality of inventive activity?

Journal of Management and Governance - The aim of this paper is to examine how an acquirer’s diversification strategy shapes the multiple dimensions of inventive activity. Differing from...     

Invariant co-ordinate selection

Summary.  A general method for exploring multivariate data by comparing different estimates of multivariate scatter is presented. The method is based on the eigenvalue–eigenvector decomposition of one scatter matrix relative to another. In particular, it is shown that the eigenvectors can be used to generate an affine invariant co-ordinate system for the multivariate data. Consequently, we view this method as a method for invariant co-ordinate selection . By plotting the data with respect to this new invariant co-ordinate system, various data structures can be revealed. For example, under certain independent components models, it is shown that the invariant co- ordinates correspond to the independent components. Another example pertains to mixtures of elliptical distributions. In this case, it is shown that a subset of the invariant co-ordinates corresponds to Fisher's linear discriminant subspace, even though the class identifications of the data points are unknown. Some illustrative examples are given.     

Bullying and Victimization Among Young Elementary School Children: The Role of Child Ethnicity and Ethnic School Composition

School-aged children with an ethnic minority background are relatively often involved in bullying and victimization, but the role of ethnic composition of schools in this context remains unclear. This study examined the relation between ethnic minority background, ethnic school composition, and bullying behaviour around primary school entry in the Netherlands. The study was based on a 2008/2009 school survey in Rotterdam, a Dutch city where about 50 % of children have a non-Dutch background. For 8523 children, teacher reports of bullying behaviour at age 5–6 years were available. Children with a non-Dutch background had higher odds of being a victim (adjusted OR 1.41, 95 % CI 1.11, 1.80), bully (OR 1.38, 95 % CI 1.20, 1.58) or bully-victim (OR 1.38, 95 % CI 1.19, 1.62) than children of Dutch national origin. Ethnic diversity in schools increased children’s risk of bullying behaviour (e.g. OR_victim per 0.1 increase in 0–1 diversity range = 1.06, 95 % CI 1.00, 1.13), with children of both Dutch and non-Dutch national origin relatively more often involved in bullying in ethnically diverse schools. The proportion of same-ethnic peers in school reduced the risk of bullying among children of Dutch national origin (e.g. OR_victim per 10 % more same-ethnic children = 0.90, 95 % CI 0.83, 0.98), but not among non-Dutch children. In conclusion, ethnic minority background and ethnic diversity within schools are risk factors for bullying among 5–6 year olds. Plausibly, reductions in absolute numbers of bullying events may be obtained with tailor-made interventions in ethnically diverse schools. Such interventions should preferably be offered early in the school curriculum.     

丹托、历史与人类生存的悲剧

历史哲学是当代哲学的灰姑娘,哲学家们从不认为历史哲学家处理的主题关乎任何重大的理论旨趣和紧迫性。在他们眼里,历史哲学关心的问题无非就是哲学家们在别处取得的成果如何能够或者应该怎样运用到历史写作领域中,而且当代历史哲学家在改变其同事所给予的较低评价方面也少有作为。本文将论证丹托在持此种观点的历史哲学家中是一个例外,因为他关于表现的哲学可以帮助我们理解文本是如何与其对象相联系的。(20世纪)语言哲学的主要缺点无疑就是,它从不费心去探究文本的哲学奥秘。历史写作是一座哲学金矿,在这点上我们必须感谢丹托的提醒。     

Structural Pluralism and Life Expectancy in Less-Developed Countries: The Role of Women's Status

This study replicates a previous finding forthe U.S. counties that showed a strongassociation, net of controls between``structural pluralism' and lower mortality. ``Structural pluralism' refers to a community'scapacity for political competition, and is acore element of ``democracy.' Pluralism hasthis effect because it facilitates theacquisition of appropriate medical facilitiesand because it tends to optimize the biologicalfunctioning of the residents. Working from amajor component of pluralism, minorityparticipation, this hypothesis is tested byshowing that women's status in less developedcountries improves life expectancy net ofcontrols. A path analysis demonstrates thatthe structural dimensions work through healthorganization as an intervening variable, andthe future testing of biological optimizationis outlined. Location in Africa south of theSahara is a partially unexplained controlvariable that has a powerful negative impact. Interpreting women's status as a component ofpluralism explains why it predicts increasedlife expectancy for all citizens, not justwomen. It is a global dimension that affectsall the members of a community.     

An Empirical Examination of Characteristics of Mexican Migrants to Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas of the United States*

Abstract This research examines differences between those Mexican migrants choosing metropolitan destinations and those choosing destinations outside metropolitan areas of the United States. Using general estimating equations, the study presents data indicating that since the 1960s migrants choosing rural destinations are less fluent in English, slightly older, much less educated, far more likely to be unskilled, more likely to be married, and more likely to be undocumented. The picture is more complex when consideration is restricted to those migrants arriving in rural areas since the passage of the North American Free Trade Agreement. These migrants are far more likely to be single, have more education but have less English fluency, have less work experience, and have less family experience with migration to the United States. They are more likely to come from small towns and rural areas of Mexico.     

To be or not to be involved: a questionnaire-experimental view on Harsanyi’s utilitarian ethics

According to standard theory founded on Harsanyi (J Polit Econ 61:434–435, 1953; 63:309–321, 1955) a social welfare function can be appropriately based on the individual’s approach to choice under uncertainty. We investigate how people really do rank distributions in terms of welfare. According to Harsanyi, the evaluation can be done from the standpoint of an uninvolved external judge, a public official, for example, or by a person who knows that she holds one of the positions in society, with an equal chance for any of the available positions. Are these two structures to be viewed differently? We use a questionnaire experiment to focus on the two different interpretations of the Harsanyi approach. There are important, systematic differences that transcend the cultural background of respondents.