Government Sanctioned “Tight” and “Loose” Slot Machines: How Having Multiple Versions of the Same Slot Machine Game May Impact Problem Gambling

In Ontario, Canada, the regulator approves identical looking slot machine games with different payback percentages. We gained access to the design documents (called PAR Sheets) used to program these different versions of the same slots game and ran Gambler’s Ruin simulations of 2,000 first-time players who each arrived with a $100 bankroll and played either the 85 or 98% version of the same game until broke. Simulations revealed that the typical (median) player’s experience did not differ significantly between versions. However the payback percentage affected the experience of players in the upper tails of the distributions with those in the 98% version having dramatically more total spins, winning spins, entries into the “bonus mode”, and “hand pays” (a win of $100 bankroll and played either the 85 or 98% version of the same game until broke. Simulations revealed that the typical (median) player’s experience did not differ significantly between versions. However the payback percentage affected the experience of players in the upper tails of the distributions with those in the 98% version having dramatically more total spins, winning spins, entries into the “bonus mode”, and “hand pays” (a win of 125 or more on a given spin). Most importantly, the number of simulated players who had a maximum peak balance in excess of $1,000 rose tenfold—from 5 in the 85% version to 54 in the 98% version. The results are discussed in terms of the Pathways Model of Problem and Pathological Gambling especially in terms of behavioural conditioning, cognitive beliefs, and early big wins. It may well be that those machines that are on the surface the “fairest” to the gambler, actually pose the most risk for ensuing gambling problems.     

Quo vadis, Hausgemeinschaft? Zum Wandel nachbarschaftlicher Beziehungen in den östlichen Bundesländern

Before the reunification of Germany, the contact to neighbours is now often said with romantically transformed undertones, to have enjoyed a high level of stability, solidarity, human warmth, and community-mindedness. The structure of neighbourly relations in a socialistic housing block community collective is discussed in this paper, in retrospect. Furthermore, the meaning of these informal contacts is dealt with in terms of being a socialistic collective personal niche or important resource compensating the East-German economy of deficiency. A qualitative empirical study deals with the changing processes within neighbour contacts after the fall of the ?Wall“ between East and West and subsequent end of the GDR. The results indicate a number of relationships changing in housing blocks and between neigbours in the community. However, assumptions cannot be confirmed which state neighbourly relationships or contacts have been broken off with only negative results. Reasons for a change in East German neighbourhoods do not seem to be alone a result of the political turn-around. The reason for that is the particular neighbourhood structure of the so-called really existing socialism (real existierender Sozialismus) in the past times of the GDR.     

Netzwerkintervention und soziale Unterstützungsförderung — konzeptioneller Stand und Anforderungen an die Praxis

A short reconstruction of the social network and social support research history is a starting point for a critical reflection of the state of the art of network and support intervention. Target levels of social network intervention are systematically discussed. The urgent need for an evaluation of more network and support intervention programs is expressed. Important conditions of effective interventions are drawn from network and support theory, research and practical experiences.     

Research on the Nature and Determinants of Marital Satisfaction: A Decade in Review

Scientific study of marital satisfaction attracted widespread attention in the 1990s from scholars representing diverse orientations and goals. This article highlights key conceptual and empirical advances that have emerged in the past decade, with particular emphasis on (a) interpersonal processes that operate within marriage, including cognition, affect, physiology, behavioral patterning, social support, and violence; (b) the milieus within which marriages operate, including microcontexts (e.g., the presence of children, life stressors and transitions) and macrocontexts (e.g., economic factors, perceived mate availability); and (c) the conceptualization and measurement of marital satisfaction, including 2‐dimensional, trajectory‐based, and social‐cognitive approaches. Notwithstanding the continued need for theoretical progress in understanding the nature and determinants of marital satisfaction, we conclude by calling for more large‐scale longitudinal research that links marital processes with sociocultural contexts, for more disconfirmatory than confirmatory research, and for research that directly guides preventive, clinical, and policy‐level interventions.     

Testing Parameters in GMM Without Assuming that They Are Identified

We propose a generalized method of moments (GMM) Lagrange multiplier statistic, i.e., the K statistic, that uses a Jacobian estimator based on the continuous updating estimator that is asymptotically uncorrelated with the sample average of the moments. Its asymptotic χ² distribution therefore holds under a wider set of circumstances, like weak instruments, than the standard full rank case for the expected Jacobian under which the asymptotic χ² distributions of the traditional statistics are valid. The behavior of the K statistic can be spurious around inflection points and maxima of the objective function. This inadequacy is overcome by combining the K statistic with a statistic that tests the validity of the moment equations and by an extension of Moreira's (2003) conditional likelihood ratio statistic toward GMM. We conduct a power comparison to test for the risk aversion parameter in a stochastic discount factor model and construct its confidence set for observed consumption growth and asset return series.