Gambling on sport: Policy issues

The most significant public policy issue associated with sports betting is legalization. Supporters of legalization rest the bulk of their case on the economic benefits the state can experience. They also assert that legalization will have a major negative impact on the extent of illegal gambling. Those who are against further legalization, particularly amateur and professional sports leagues, the horse race industry, and legal bookmakers, point out that sports wagering is not very profitable and is very risky for the operator. Furthermore, legal wagering will be unable to compete effectively with the price of illegal operations. It is highly likely that the recently introduced federal legislation, S.474, Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act, prohibiting further legalization of sports betting will be enacted.     

Parametric relative survival regression using generalized linear models with application to Hodgkin's lymphoma

Changes in survival rates during 1940–1992 for patients with Hodgkin's disease are studied by using population-based data. The aim of the analysis is to identify when the breakthrough in clinical trials of chemotherapy treatments started to increase population survival rates, and to find how long it took for the increase to level off, indicating that the full population effect of the breakthrough had been realized. A Weibull relative survival model is used because the model parameters are easily interpretable when assessing the effect of advances in clinical trials. However, the methods apply to any relative survival model that falls within the generalized linear models framework. The model is fitted by using modifications of existing software (SAS, GLIM) and profile likelihood methods. The results are similar to those from a cause-specific analysis of the data by Feuer and co-workers. Survival started to improve around the time that a major chemotherapy breakthrough (nitrogen mustard, Oncovin, prednisone and procarbazine) was publicized in the mid 1960s but did not level off for 11 years. For the analysis of data where the cause of death is obtained from death certificates, the relative survival approach has the advantage of providing the necessary adjustment for expected mortality from causes other than the disease without requiring information on the causes of death.     

A note on ranked-set sampling using a covariate

Ranked-set sampling (RSS) and judgment post-stratification (JPS) use ranking information to obtain more efficient inference than is possible using simple random sampling. Both methods were developed with subjective, judgment-based rankings in mind, but the idea of ranking using a covariate has received a lot of attention. We provide evidence here that when rankings are done using a covariate, the standard RSS and JPS mean estimators no longer make efficient use of the available information. We first show that when rankings are done using a covariate, the standard nonparametric mean estimators in JPS and unbalanced RSS are inadmissible under squared error loss. We then show that when rankings are done using a covariate, nonparametric regression techniques yield mean estimators that tend to be significantly more efficient than the standard RSS and JPS mean estimators. We conclude that the standard estimators are best reserved for settings where only subjective, judgment-based rankings are available.     

Assessment of Interindividual and Geographic Variability in Human Exposure to Fine Particulate Matter in Environmental Tobacco Smoke

Environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) is a major contributor to indoor human exposures to fine particulate matter of 2.5 μm or smaller (PM_2.5). The Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation for Particulate Matter (SHEDS‐PM) Model developed by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency estimates distributions of outdoor and indoor PM_2.5 exposure for a specified population based on ambient concentrations and indoor emissions sources. A critical assessment was conducted of the methodology and data used in SHEDS‐PM for estimation of indoor exposure to ETS. For the residential microenvironment, SHEDS uses a mass‐balance approach, which is comparable to best practices. The default inputs in SHEDS‐PM were reviewed and more recent and extensive data sources were identified. Sensitivity analysis was used to determine which inputs should be prioritized for updating. Data regarding the proportion of smokers and “other smokers” and cigarette emission rate were found to be important. SHEDS‐PM does not currently account for in‐vehicle ETS exposure; however, in‐vehicle ETS‐related PM_2.5 levels can exceed those in residential microenvironments by a factor of 10 or more. Therefore, a mass‐balance‐based methodology for estimating in‐vehicle ETS PM_2.5 concentration is evaluated. Recommendations are made regarding updating of input data and algorithms related to ETS exposure in the SHEDS‐PM model. Interindividual variability for ETS exposure was quantified. Geographic variability in ETS exposure was quantified based on the varying prevalence of smokers in five selected locations in the United States.     

The changing impact of white migration on the population compositions of origin and destination metropolitan areas

Increased migration to the sunbelt and the metropolitan-nonmetropolitan "turnaround" represent departures from long-standing redistribution trends. Although these patterns have been examined from a number of perspectives, their consequences for individual metropolitan areas have not yet been brought to light. In the present study, stream-disaggregated data for the late 1950s and late 1960s are employed to assess the impact of recent migration on the sizes and compositions of white populations in thirty-one large metropolitan areas. Most large northern SMSAs have been experiencing the "new" migration patterns since the late 1950s. They have incurred net out-movements of whites to both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. In their exchanges with nonmetropolitan areas, however, they have managed to retain greater numbers of college graduates and professional workers. Southern and western SMSAs did not sustain losses to nonmetropolitan areas during either period. They did appear to gain both total and high status population as a result of interregional metropolitan redistribution.     

Immigration and internal migration “flight”: A California case study

Recent analyses of 1990 census migration data have pointed up disparities in the way immigration and internal migration contributions affect an area's demographic profile. They show that there is little overlap between states with large population gains from internal migration from other parts of the United States and states with large population gains from immigration from abroad. This emerging pattern, along with the fact that immigration and internal migration select on very different demographic characteristics, could lead toward a demographic balkanization of the nation's population. This paper evaluates immigration-induced out-movement from California, based on an analysis of recently released migration data from the 1990 U.S. census. The results presented here suggest that California's out-migration consists of two different migration systems: first, an immigration-induced flight that exports lower income and less-educated Californians, primarily, to the nearby states of Washington, Oregon, Nevada and Arizona. And second, a more conventional migration exchange with the rest of the United States that involves the redistribution of better educated, higher income migrants. It is the former migration system which appears to be most responsive to the low-skilled immigration flows, while the latter should be responsive to more conventional labor market employment characteristics. This implies that, irrespective of changing economic conditions in the state, the continued immigration of low-skilled migrants will lead to more losses of native-born internal migrants to neighboring states and metropolitan areas. However, these migrant streams will not be made up of the best and brightest residents that characterize most conventional migration streams.A longer version of this report with more extensive background statistics isResearch Report 94–306 (Frey, 1994b) available from Publications, Population Studies Center, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48104.     

Human Well-Being in Chinese Cities

Does human well-being vary substantially across regions within China and, if so, what forces have contributed to this variation? There are four macro-social change theories that shed light on this question: modernization theory, dependency/world-systems theory, state theory, and human ecology theory. No known study has examined all four theories simultaneously or used recent data. We fill this gap by reporting the results of a study examining the effects of industrialization, foreign penetration, state investment, and population growth (as well as several control variables) on the urban variation of three alternative forms of human well-being in China during the late 1980s. Results provide support for both state theory and human ecology theory, but they provide little or no support for modernization theory and dependency/world systems theory. Implications of the results are discussed.