Annual mortality rates and excess deaths of children under five in Iraq, 1991-98

Data from two parallel household surveys conducted in Iraq by UNICEF in 1999 show that under-5 mortality declined steadily from 1974 to 1990, reaching about 63 per 1,000 live births in the period 1986-90. It then rose dramatically to 118 per 1,000 in 1991, the year of the Gulf War. The number of 'excess' under-5 deaths (i.e., the number in excess of the number predicted from past trends) in Iraq between 1991 and 1998 was calculated assuming that, instead of the rates measured by the 1999 survey for this period, either (a) average mortality rates for the period 1986-90 had been maintained, or (b) mortality had continued to decline at the rate observed between 1974 and 1990. According to these calculations, the estimated number of excess deaths resulting from the Gulf War and its aftermath up to 1998 was between 400,000 (assumption a) and 500,000 (assumption b).     

Accounting for Men’s Refusal of Heterosex: A Story-Completion Study With Young Adults

In the present study we bring together theory regarding the construction of heterosexuality and masculinities to understand the shifting and changing terrain of heterosexual sex (heterosex). We use inductive qualitative content analysis of story completion data to discover the different ways that heterosex is constructed by the male and female respondents in scenarios where women initiate sex and men, at first, refuse. The stories represented a spectrum of responses that reify and subvert dominant understandings of heterosex. Five major themes were generated from the current data (1) men should initiate sex, (2) he wants to take it slowly, (3) it is natural for men to want sex, (4) it is men’s job to look after women, and (5) coercion. We discuss in detail the dominant narratives described by women and men and how they may be shifting. The study thus provides a rich, experience-based representation of heterosexual sexual activity and suggests subtle shifts in how masculinity is managed within heterosexual relationships.     

Turning Points to Becoming a Tobacco Smoker: Smoking Initiation and Identity Change among Chinese Youth

In this study, we analyzed identity construction among young smokers in China, with three interconnected objectives: to theorize the turning points and career trajectory of smoking initiation; to account for their characteristics with interactionist processes; and to critically evaluate the applicability of classic typologies of identity change by Becker and Strauss. In-depth interviews with 24 late adolescents (ages 18–19) revealed a smoking initiation career path of four interconnected turning points, each characterized by interactionist processes. Smoker peers played a key role in facilitating overall career progression, and shame avoidance was crucial to their social dynamics. We also conclude that classic studies of turning points in general, and substance use specifically, are sufficiently broad and flexible to elucidate tobacco smoker identity construction in China, and facilitate a comparison of commonality and divergence among different “becoming” identities. The implications of these findings for tobacco control in China are discussed.     

The Phone-FITT: a brief physical activity interview for older adults

The purpose of this study was to develop a brief physical activity interview for older adults (Phone-FITT) and evaluate its test-retest reliability and validity. Summary scores were derived for household, recreational, and total PA. Reliability was evaluated in a convenience sample from a fall-prevention study (N = 43, 79.4 +/- 2.9 years, 51% male), and validity, in a random sample of individuals in older adult exercise programs (N = 48, 77.4 +/- 4.7 years, 25% male). Mean time to complete the Phone-FITT was 10 min for participants sampled from exercise programs. Evaluation of test-retest reliability indicated substantial to almost perfect agreement for all scores, with intraclass correlation coefficients (95% confidence intervals) ranging from .74 (.58-.85) to .88 (.8-.94). For validity, Spearman's rho correlations of Phone-FITT scores with accelerometer counts ranged from .29 (.01-.53) to .57 (.34-.73). Correlations of Phone-FITT recreational scores with age and seconds to complete a self-paced step test ranged from -.29 (-.53 to -.01) to -.45 (-.68 to -.14). This study contributes preliminary evidence of the reliability and validity of the Phone-FITT.     

On convergence of the EM algorithmand the Gibbs sampler

In this article we investigate the relationship between the EM algorithm and the Gibbs sampler. We show that the approximate rate of convergence of the Gibbs sampler by Gaussian approximation is equal to that of the corresponding EM-type algorithm. This helps in implementing either of the algorithms as improvement strategies for one algorithm can be directly transported to the other. In particular, by running the EM algorithm we know approximately how many iterations are needed for convergence of the Gibbs sampler. We also obtain a result that under certain conditions, the EM algorithm used for finding the maximum likelihood estimates can be slower to converge than the corresponding Gibbs sampler for Bayesian inference. We illustrate our results in a number of realistic examples all based on the generalized linear mixed models.     

The ethics-economics-policy paradigm: The foundation for an integrated land trust conservation decision-support model

This paper sets forth a transdisciplinary approach, based upon current trans-Atlantic research carried out in Britain and the U.S., on the complex and interdisciplinary relationship of the ethics-economics-policy paradigm. To provide the proper associations within the land trust framework, the paradigm is viewed from the little explored private lands perspective.The results of interviews carried out with conservation professionals in Britain and the U.S. indicate a strong desire to use a more integrated framework to facilitate the decision-making process. Approximately 96% of the 139 land trusts interviewed felt that their organization's conservation efforts would ultimately be enhanced through the use of a decision-support tool that extended beyond traditional ecological criteria and constraints and incorporated both qualitative social and quantitative economic information. To this end, this paper will both examine the current status of land trust decisions making and frame the fundamentals and dimensions (e.g., land resources, sustainability, community, environment, etc.) of the ethics-economics-policy paradigm.The conceptual integrated land conservation decision-support (ILCDS) model is introduced. Aims of the model, as prescribed by the ethics-economics-policy paradigm, are to integrate concerns of economic efficiency, equity (between and within generations), behavioral models of resource use and ecological integrity, and other patterns of human and economic development within a private land–land trust context.     

Likelihood‐based inference for correlated diffusions

The authors address the problem of likelihood‐based inference for correlated diffusions. Such a task presents two issues; the positive definite constraints of the diffusion matrix and the likelihood intractability. The first issue is handled by using the Cholesky factorization on the diffusion matrix. To deal with the likelihood unavailability, a generalization of the data augmentation framework of Roberts and Stramer [Roberts and Stramer (2001) Biometrika 88(3), 603–621] to d‐dimensional correlated diffusions, including multivariate stochastic volatility models, is given. The methodology is illustrated through simulated and real data sets. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 39: 52–72; 2011 © 2011 Statistical Society of Canada     

Functional linear discriminant analysis for irregularly sampled curves

We introduce a technique for extending the classical method of linear discriminant analysis (LDA) to data sets where the predictor variables are curves or functions. This procedure, which we call functional linear discriminant analysis ( FLDA ), is particularly useful when only fragments of the curves are observed. All the techniques associated with LDA can be extended for use with FLDA. In particular FLDA can be used to produce classifications on new (test) curves, give an estimate of the discriminant function between classes and provide a one- or two-dimensional pictorial representation of a set of curves. We also extend this procedure to provide generalizations of quadratic and regularized discriminant analysis.     

The cosmopolitan contradictions of planetary urbanization

This paper explores the empirical, conceptual and theoretical gains that can be made using cosmopolitan social theory to think through the urban transformations that scholars have in recent years termed planetary urbanization. Recognizing the global spread of urbanization makes the need for a cosmopolitan urban sociology more pressing than ever. Here, it is suggested that critical urban sociology can be invigorated by focusing upon the disconnect that Henri Lefebvre posits between the planetarization of the urban – which he views as economically and technologically driven – and his dis‐alienated notion of a global urban society. The first aim of this paper is to highlight the benefits of using ‘cosmopolitan’ social theory to understand Lefebvre's urban problematic (and to establish why this is also a cosmopolitan problematic); the second is to identify the core cosmopolitan contradictions of planetary urbanization, tensions that are both actually existing and reproduced in scholarly accounts. The article begins by examining the challenges presented to urban sociology by planetary urbanization, before considering how cosmopolitan sociological theory helps provide an analytical ‘grip’ on the deep lying social realities of contemporary urbanization, especially in relation to questions about difference, culture and history. These insights are used to identify three cosmopolitan contradictions that exist within urbanized (and urbanizing) space; tensions that provide a basis for a thoroughgoing cosmopolitan investigation of planetary urbanization.