TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION,TURBULENCE, AND THE DYNAMICS OF UNEMPLOYMENT

Starting in the late 1970s, European unemployment began to increase while US unemployment remained constant. At the same time, capital‐embodied technical change began to accelerate, and the United States adopted the new capital much faster than Europe. I argue that these two facts are related. The main idea is that if there is capital‐embodied technical change, then the unemployment rate depends critically on how obsolete the installed capital stock is compared to the frontier. In particular, European workers initially worked with relatively obsolete capital, and so they lacked the skills required to work with frontier capital. When they lost their jobs they therefore stayed unemployed for longer than their American counterparts. I find that this channel accounts for about 70% of the discrepancy between the behavior of unemployment rates in Europe and the United States.     

Structured Coupling of Probability Loss Distributions: Assessing Joint Flood Risk in Multiple River Basins

Losses due to natural hazard events can be extraordinarily high and difficult to cope with. Therefore, there is considerable interest to estimate the potential impact of current and future extreme events at all scales in as much detail as possible. As hazards typically spread over wider areas, risk assessment must take into account interrelations between regions. Neglecting such interdependencies can lead to a severe underestimation of potential losses, especially for extreme events. This underestimation of extreme risk can lead to the failure of riskmanagement strategies when they are most needed, namely, in times of unprecedented events. In this article, we suggest a methodology to incorporate such interdependencies in risk via the use of copulas. We demonstrate that by coupling losses, dependencies can be incorporated in risk analysis, avoiding the underestimation of risk. Based on maximum discharge data of river basins and stream networks, we present and discuss different ways to couple loss distributions of basins while explicitly incorporating tail dependencies. We distinguish between coupling methods that require river structure data for the analysis and those that do not. For the later approach we propose a minimax algorithm to choose coupled basin pairs so that the underestimation of risk is avoided and the use of river structure data is not needed. The proposed methodology is especially useful for large‐scale analysis and we motivate and apply our method using the case of Romania. The approach can be easily extended to other countries and natural hazards.     

Impact of the EU Structural Funds on Financial Capacities of Non-profit Organizations

To fulfil their role, non-profit organizations (NPOs) need sufficient capacities. These include, first and foremost, financial capacity. EU Cohesion Policy commands financial resources of 351.8 bn. EUR. The EU is also willing to support NPOs from this source. With such considerable funding, the research questions arise: How much money have NPOs received? What are the effects of such assistance on the financial capacities of NPOs? On a sample of 2715 non-profit organizations in the Czech Republic, we have found that EU subsidies have a positive impact on financial capacities, measured as real assets. It is caused by using EU funds for investment. We have not proved an effect on short-term financial capacities measured on revenues. Moreover, the distribution of financial support among PBOs is unequal as 4% of NPOs collected 80% of subsidies due to differences in skills among NPOs’ managers.     

Critical appraisal of jointness concepts in Bayesian model averaging: evidence from life sciences,sociology, and other scientific fields

Jointness is a Bayesian approach to capturing dependence among regressors in multivariate data. It addresses the general issue of whether explanatory factors for a given empirical phenomenon are complements or substitutes. I ask a number of questions about existing jointness concepts: Are the patterns revealed stable across datasets? Are results robust to prior choice and do data characteristics affect results? And importantly: What do the answers imply from a practical vista? The present study takes an applied, interdisciplinary and comparative perspective, validating jointness concepts on datasets across scientific fields with focus on life sciences (Parkinson's disease) and sociology. Simulations complement the study of real-world data. My findings suggest that results depend on which jointness concept is used: Some concepts deliver jointness patterns remarkably uniform across datasets, while all concepts are fairly robust to the choice of prior structure. This can be interpreted as critique of jointness from a practical perspective, given that the patterns revealed are at times very different and no concept emerges as overall advantageous. The composite indicators approach to combining information across jointness concepts is also explored, suggesting an avenue to facilitate the application of the concepts in future research.     

Optimal allocation of Monte Carlo simulations to multiple hypothesis tests

Statistics and Computing - Multiple hypothesis tests are often carried out in practice using p-value estimates obtained with bootstrap or permutation tests since the analytical p-values underlying...     

Risk aversion over finite domains

We investigate risk attitudes when the underlying domain of payoffs is finite and the payoffs are, in general, not numerical. In such cases, the traditional notions of absolute risk attitudes, that are designed for convex domains of numerical payoffs, are not applicable. We introduce comparative notions of weak and strong risk attitudes that remain applicable. We examine how they are characterized within the rank-dependent utility model, thus including expected utility as a special case. In particular, we characterize strong comparative risk aversion under rank-dependent utility. This is our main result. From this and other findings, we draw two novel conclusions. First, under expected utility, weak and strong comparative risk aversion are characterized by the same condition over finite domains. By contrast, such is not the case under non-expected utility. Second, under expected utility, weak (respectively: strong) comparative risk aversion is characterized by the same condition when the utility functions have finite range and when they have convex range (alternatively, when the payoffs are numerical and their domain is finite or convex, respectively). By contrast, such is not the case under non-expected utility. Thus, considering comparative risk aversion over finite domains leads to a better understanding of the divide between expected and non-expected utility, more generally, the structural properties of the main models of decision-making under risk.

     

The irreversibility effect and agency conflicts

This paper studies the influence of agency conflicts on the irreversibility effect. Using a dynamic variant of the static Baron and Myerson (Econometrica 50(4):911–930, 1982) adverse selection model, we characterize under which circumstances the irreversibility effect arises in the presence and absence of an agency conflict. In particular, we find that in the presence of an agency conflict the irreversibility effect arises in more circumstances than in the standard first-best analysis that abstracts from agency problems.     

DOES RELATIONSHIP SPECIFIC INVESTMENT DEPEND ON ASSET OWNERSHIP? EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT IN THE HOUSING MARKET

In this paper, I test the most basic prediction of Grossman and Hart (1986, The Costs and Benefits of Ownership: A Theory of Vertical and Lateral Integration. Journal of Political Economy, 691–719): allocations of asset ownership that expose a party to ex‐post expropriation reduce this party’s ex‐ante relationship‐specific investments. In the empirical context of the German housing market, I find that relationship‐specific investments, such as bathroom renovations, are more frequent if the occupant is protected against expropriation because he owns his home. To avoid the endogeneity of the homeownership allocation, I rely on the natural experiment of the German reunification: under the communist regime, ownership existed but was economically meaningless; yet after reunification, ownership unexpectedly reacquired legal force.     

Repeat and Non-returning Volunteers: The Promise of Episodic Events for Volunteer Recruitment and Retention

VOLUNTAS: International Journal of Voluntary and Nonprofit Organizations - In this article, we are concerned with the recruitment potential of one-off episodic events for attracting and retaining...     

Replik zu den Erwiderungen zu den Anmerkungen zu den Determinanten der Pr��fungshonorare in Deutschland

I maintain my critique of the studies of Bigus and Zimmermann (2009) and of Köhler et al. (2010) without reservation. In light of the legal basis of the scope of audits of financial statements, of auditing standards, of the practice of auditing of international groups of companies, and of international studies of audit fees, the replies of the authors do not provide solid counter arguments and do not seem to take the practice of auditing into account.