Therapy for male couples experiencing relationship problems and sexual problems

This article examines four issues that need to be explored by the therapist as possible causes of stress for a male couple: stereotypic male roles, stereotypic sexual roles, homophobia, which includes the "coming out" process, and sexual dysfunctions. These issues can cause anxiety and stress, which may in turn cause relationship problems for a male couple. The role of the therapist is clarified and suggestions for treatment are given.     

Going to Pieces: Paul Monette and the Fragments of the Tribe

Author of the highly acclaimed Borrowed Time: An AIDS Memoir (1988) and winner of the 1992 National Book Award for his autobiography Becoming a Man: Half a Life Story, Paul Monette died of complications from AIDS in Los Angeles on February 12, 1995. His most recent work, Last Watch of the Night: Essays Too Personal and Otherwise (1994), is his third volume in a trilogy of autobiographical writing on growing up gay, coming-out, and living with AIDS. A graduate of Phillips Academy and Yale University, Monette received a number of awards for his writing and his work as an outspoken voice in the battle against AIDS, including the National Book Award, three Lambda Literary awards, the PEN Center West Freedom to Write Award, and three honorary doctorate degrees, from Wesleyan University, the City University of New York, and the State University of New York at Oswego. A memorial service was held for Monette on Sunday, February 19, 1995, at the Directors Guild of America on Sunset Boulevard in Los Angeles. Paul Monette was 49.     

The VFW — A case study in the “iron law of oligarchy” and goal displacement

The iron law of oligarchy is applied to the VFW. Using participant observation and qualitative interviews, membership of the VFW is dichotomized into a leadership oligarchy and a drinking membership. Opinions of members of the two groups about the purposes of the organization and about each other are documented. An historical analysis traces the change in organizational goals over time from promoting nationalism, fraternalism, and special benefits for members to political advocacy of veterans' rights.     

Fertility differences between the family of orientation and the family or procreation in Barbados

Data from an island-wide probability sample of 4119 Barbadian females aged 16-50 were used to study whether there has been an intergenerational fertility decline between the respondents and their mothers. The fertility of the respondents, all from the low or lower middle class, was significantly lower than that of their mothers. However, the size of the family of procreation was seen to be positively related to the size of the family of orientation; i.e., those from large families tended to have large families and vice versa. There was, however, a regression to the mean. There were no differences between women from small and large families as to fertility norms, age at 1st use of contraceptives, or actual practice of contraception. Women from small families did tend to enter sexual relationships and get pregnant at a later age. The women from small families were better educated, earned higher incomes, and had higher status occupations, all factors which might have influenced their fertility. Women from larger families cited higher numbers for both small and large families than did the women from small families. This indicates a perceptual difference which was, in turn, related to fertility differences.     

METHODS FOR QUANTIFYING SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES AND MULTI-ATTRIBUTE UTILITIES*†

In many situations where normative decision-aiding techniques could be usefully applied, historical data are inadequate for estimating the required outcome probabilities, and economic methodologies are inadequate for estimating the aggregate utility derived from the several outcome attributes. In such cases it is often useful to obtain the required estimates in the form of expert judgments, i.e. to obtain subjective probabilities and multi-attribute utilities. Similarly, in many situations where behavioral decision processes are to be studied, it is necessary to scale the expectations and perceived values of the decision makers. This article describes the methods for eliciting subjective probabilities and multi-attribute utilities whose usefulness has been empirically studied and reported in the research literature. It also contains summary guidelines concerning the elicitation and use of such judgments.     

Information theory and risk in capital markets

The present empirical study applies the methodology of information theory to the problem of assessing and separating capital market risk, which is separated into its systematic and unsystematic components. Monthly return relatives for all securities traded on the New York Stock Exchange are examined for the period 1926 to 1971, which is segmented into six 7-year subperiods. The securities are combined into portfolios of various sizes and ranked. It is concluded that although both systematic and unsystematic risks have increased over the 45-year interval—particularly between the pre-1940 and post-1940 periods—they have maintained their relative share of the total risk over the same period.     

The Assessment of Probability Distributions from Expert Opinions with an Application to Seismic Fragility Curves

A method is developed for estimating a probability distribution using estimates of its percentiles provided by experts. The analyst's judgment concerning the credibility of these expert opinions is quantified in the likelihood function of Bayes'Theorem. The model considers explicitly the random variability of each expert estimate, the dependencies among the estimates of each expert, the dependencies among experts, and potential systematic biases. The relation between the results of the formal methods of this paper and methods used in practice is explored. A series of sensitivity studies provides insights into the significance of the parameters of the model. The methodology is applied to the problem of estimation of seismic fragility curves (i.e., the conditional probability of equipment failure given a seismically induced stress).     

Was there compression of disability for older Americans from 1992 to 2003?

Medical advances and the growth of the elderly population have focused interest on trends in the health of the elderly. Three theories have been advanced to describe these trends: compression of morbidity, expansion of morbidity, and dynamic equilibrium. We applied multistate life table methods to the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey to estimate active and disabled life expectancy from 1992 to 2003, defining disability as having difficulty with instrumental activities of daily living or activities of daily living. We found increases in active life expectancy past age 65 and decreases in life expectancy with severe disability. These trends are consistent with elements of both the theory of compression of morbidity and the theory of dynamic equilibrium.     

Using age and spatial flow structures in the indirect estimation of migration streams

This article outlines a formal model-based approach for inferring interregional age-specific migration streams in settings where such data are incomplete, inadequate, or unavailable. The estimation approach relies heavily on log-linear models, using them to impose some of the regularities exhibited by past age and spatial structures or to combine and borrow information drawn from other sources. The approach is illustrated using data from the 1990 and 2000 U.S. and Mexico censuses.