When Watching A Sunset Can Help A Relationship Dawn Anew: Nature‐Guided Therapy For Couples And Families

Based on the case of a couple in conflict who were available for only two sessions of Therapy, this article explores the application of a brief, integrative ecopsychology, Nature‐Guided Therapy, in relationship work. It discusses what nature‐guided Therapy is, where it fits in the spectrum of Therapypeutic interventions, and how it can be applied. As there is a paucity of literature linking the growing field of ecoTherapy with family and couple Therapy, the relevance of nature‐guided approaches is discussed. Its goal goes beyond problem resolution, aiming at the creation of positive, effective and joyful relationships. Step‐by‐step procedures for applying nature‐guided interventions in family and couple work are presented.     

On convergence of properly weighted samples to the target distribution

We consider importance sampling as well as other properly weighted samples with respect to a target distribution π$\pi$ from a different point of view. By considering the associated weights as sojourn times until the next jump, we define appropriate jump processes. When the original sample sequence forms an ergodic Markov chain, the associated jump process is an ergodic semi-Markov process with stationary distribution π$\pi$. In this respect, properly weighted samples behave very similarly to standard Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) schemes in that they exhibit convergence to the target distribution as well. Indeed, some standard MCMC procedures like the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm are included in this context. Moreover, when the samples are independent and the mean weight is bounded above, we describe a slight modification in order to achieve exact (weighted) samples from the target distribution.     

Social disorganization in a modernizing Dalit community

India has a traditional community justice forum, known as the panchayat, which settles disputes, keeping them from escalating into serious problems. However, this forum is in decline, with serious consequences for Indian communities. Here we analyze how the demise of the panchayat in the Dalit (untouchable) community of Pudur contributed to serious conflicts and crime. Panchayats have been impacted by India’s democratization, economic development, and urbanization. Dalits, especially, want to be independent, equal, and economically prosperous. In Pudur these needs have disrupted collective sentiment to an extent that fulfillment of them has become difficult. That several non-Dalits live in Pudur has made panchayat success even more unattainable. Socially disorganizing forces—modernization, opposing values of equality and caste hierarchy, intergenerational frictions, and Pudur’s unique history and caste composition—have all contributed to the panchayat’s demise and social ills. Modern societies looking for innovative solutions to crime through community justice can learn from Pudur’s negative experiences.     

Dynamic Global Games of Regime Change: Learning,Multiplicity, and the Timing of Attacks

Global games of regime change—coordination games of incomplete information in which a status quo is abandoned once a sufficiently large fraction of agents attack it—have been used to study crises phenomena such as currency attacks, bank runs, debt crises, and political change. We extend the static benchmark examined in the literature by allowing agents to take actions in many periods and to learn about the underlying fundamentals over time. We first provide a simple recursive algorithm for the characterization of monotone equilibria. We then show how the interaction of the knowledge that the regime survived past attacks with the arrival of information over time, or with changes in fundamentals, leads to interesting equilibrium properties. First, multiplicity may obtain under the same conditions on exogenous information that guarantee uniqueness in the static benchmark. Second, fundamentals may predict the eventual fate of the regime but not the timing or the number of attacks. Finally, equilibrium dynamics can alternate between phases of tranquility—where no attack is possible—and phases of distress—where a large attack can occur—even without changes in fundamentals.     

CROSS‐COUNTRY VARIATION IN THE IMPACT OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION: CANADA,MEXICO, AND THE UNITED STATES

Using data drawn from the Canadian, Mexican, and U.S. censuses, we find a numerically comparable and statistically significant inverse relation between immigrant‐induced shifts in labor supply and wages in each of the three countries: A 10% labor supply shift is associated with a 3%–4% opposite‐signed change in wages. Despite the similarity in the wage response, the impact of migration on the wage structure differs significantly across countries. International migration narrowed wage inequality in Canada; increased it in the United States; and reduced the relative wage of workers at the bottom of the skill distribution in Mexico. (JEL: J31, J61)     

Small Group Predictions on an Uncertain Outcome: The Effect of Nondiagnostic Information

Research has established that exposure to a combination of diagnostic (i.e., relevant) and nondiagnostic (i.e., irrelevant) information results in predictions that are more regressive than predictions based on diagnostic information (Hackenbrack, 1992; Hoffman and Patton, 1997). This phenomenon has been labeled the dilution effect (e.g., Tetlock and Boettger, 1989) and has been documented when individuals make predictions. This study tests for the dilution effect when small groups make predictions, and examines the effect of using a procedure designed to reduce the dilution effect. Results indicate that group predictions are influenced by nondiagnostic information in the same manner as are individual predictions, and allowing participants to rate the diagnosticity of information prior to making predictions does not reduce the dilution effect.     

Widowhood,family size,and post-reproductive Mortality: a comparative Analysis of three populations in Nineteenth-Century Europe

Researchers from a number of disciplines have offered competing theories about the effects oJ childbearing on parents 'postreproductive longevity. The "disposable soma theory" argues that investments in somatic maintenance increase longevity but reduce childbearing. "Maternal depletion" models suggest that the rigors of childrearing increase mortality in later years. Other researchers consider continued childbearing a sign of healthy aging and a predictor of future longevity. Empirical studies have produced inconsistent and contradictory results. Our focus is on the experience of widowhood, which has been ignored in previous studies. We hypothesize that the death of a spouse is a stressful event with long-term consequences for health, especially for women with small children. Data are drawn from historical sources in Sweden, Belgium, and the Netherlands from 1766 to 1980. Postreproductive mortality was highest among young widows with larger families in all three samples. Age at last birth had little or no effect. We conclude that raising children under adverse circumstances can have long-lasting, harmful effects on a mother's health.     

Correlation in a Bayesian framework

The authors consider the correlation between two arbitrary functions of the data and a parameter when the parameter is regarded as a random variable with given prior distribution. They show how to compute such a correlation and use closed form expressions to assess the dependence between parameters and various classical or robust estimators thereof, as well as between p‐values and posterior probabilities of the null hypothesis in the one‐sided testing problem. Other applications involve the Dirichlet process and stationary Gaussian processes. Using this approach, the authors also derive a general nonparametric upper bound on Bayes risks.