Evaluating second-order probability judgments with strictly proper scoring rules

Empirical studies have demonstrated that uncertainty about event probabilities, also known as ambiguity or second-order uncertainty, can affect decision makers choice preferences. Despite the importance of second-order uncertainty in decision making, almost no effort has been directed towards the development of methods that evaluate the accuracy of second-order probabilities. In this paper, we describe conditions under which strictly proper scoring rules can be used to assess the accuracy of second-order probability judgments. We investigate the effectiveness of using a particular strictly proper scoring rule the ranked probability score - to discourage biased assessments of second-order uncertainty.     

Max Weber,critical theory,and the administered world

The sociological perspectives of Max Weber and the Frankfurt School have been viewed as polarities in much of the recent literature. The Frankfurt sociologists were advocates of a neo-Marxism that stressed dialectical reasoning and rejected the notion of value-neutrality. Weber adhered to the canons of causal logic and cultivated the ideal of objectivity in social research. Notwithstanding these theoretical and methodological differences, Weber and the advocates of critical theory arrived at surprisingly similar conclusions about the fate of the modern world. Weber saw the advent of a bureaucratic iron cage which would effectively negate the role of the individual, while the Frankfurt sociologists posited the onset of an administered world in which human activity would be smothered in an ever-expanding network of management and control. Given these commonalities, a revision of the standard evaluation of Weber and critical theory is suggested.     

The Interplay of Science, Values, and Experiences Among Scientists Asked to Evaluate the Hazards of Dioxin, Radon, and Environmental Tobacco Smoke

To investigate the extent to which personal values and experiences among scientists might affect their assessment of risks from dioxin, radon, and environmental tobacco smoke (ETS), we conducted an experiment through a telephone survey of 1461 epidemiologists, toxicologists, physicians, and general scientists. Each participant was read a vignette designed to reflect the mainstream scientific thinking on one of the three substances. For half of the participants (group A) the substance was named. For the other half (group B), the substance was not named but was identified only as Substance X, Y, or Z. Knowing the name of the substance had little effect on the scientists' evaluation of dioxin, although those who knew the substance to be dioxin were more likely to rate the substance as a serious environmental health hazard (51% vs. 42%, p = 0.062). For radon, those who knew the substance by name were significantly more likely to consider it an environmental health hazard than were those who knew it as substance Z (91% vs. 78%, p less than 0.001). Participants who knew they were being asked about ETS rather than substance X were significantly more likely to consider the substance an environmental health hazard (88% vs. 66%, p less than 0.001), to consider the substance a serious environmental health hazard (70% vs. 33%, p less than 0.001), to believe that background exposure required public health intervention (85% vs. 41%, p less than 0.001), and to believe that above-background exposure required public health intervention (90% vs. 74%, p less than 0.001). These findings suggest that values and experiences may be influencing health risk assessments for these substances, and indicate the need for more study of this phenomenon.     

Interest Groups and Social Movements: Self- or Public Interested? Insights from the Brazilian Third-Sector Literature

By definition, interest groups are seen as self-interested, that is, organizations established to pursue the self-interest of their members. As such, this plethora of self-interested actors has been seen largely as a negative thing, cluttering the policy process, creating unmanageable demands, and leading to iron triangles of interest group/legislative/bureaucratic networks geared toward funneling benefits to narrow groups. In contrast, social movements, nongovernmental organizations, and the like typically are seen as positive, democratizing players in public policy. This paper seeks to muddy both sides of this neat distinction by bringing the Brazilian third-sector literature and field research on scientific and professional associations in the states of Sergipe and Santa Catarina to bear on the question of the self- versus public-interested stance of third-sector groups. On the one hand, social movements can be just as self-interested as the more traditional interest groups. On the other, interest groups often act wholly in the public interest.     

Citizen Advisory Committees and Environmental Policy: What We Know, What's Left to Discover

Citizen Advisory Committees (CACs) are being used in increasing numbers to provide public input into environmental policy and management decisions. While there is a large body of literature consisting of guidelines for establishing and running CACs, the body of literature of empirical evaluations of CACs is markedly smaller. Fourteen empirical studies of CACs involved in environmental policy decisions (spanning the period from 1976 to 1994) are reviewed here, including case studies, large-scale surveys, and consultant reports. For each study consideration is given to the methods of study, the issues considered by the CACs, the organizations advised, the definitions of success used in the study, and the suggested factors contributing to the success, or lack of success, experienced by the CACs. The review shows that the influence of CACs on policy outcomes have varied from case to case, with some accomplishing little and others having significant policy impacts. The increased use of CACs by government and industry presents an excellent opportunity for academics and practitioners to strengthen their understanding of the internal processes and capabilities of CACs through comparative evaluation research.