Must high commodity prices depress the world economy? An application of a world model system

The impact of higher primary commodity prices on the world economy is central to the North-South dialogue. The less developed countries are seeking a way to obtain a larger share of world income. In the context of current discussions of commodity price stabilization, UNCTAD's “integrated programme” for example, this is likely to mean higher commodity prices. A critical question is then, “Must higher prices for primary commodities depress the industrial economies?”The cyclical swing of 1973–1975 would seem to support the thesis that high primary commodity prices lead to recession in the industrial countries. Yet this experience is not conclusive evidence. Many complex forces, some natural and others policy induced, accounted for the recession. The impact of primary commodity prices must be considered in a full system, recognizing not only the direct costs, but also the resulting demand feedback. Under different circumstances, higher payments to the commodity producing LDCs may well increase demand for manufactures and stimulate exports and industrial activity in the developed countries.This paper uses a version of the LINK world model system to examine the linkages between commodity prices and world economic activity. In the first part we examine the demand feedback in a simple theoretical model of the interrelationships between commodity consumer countries and the commodity producers. In the second part we use an empirical system, COMLINK, the version of the LINK system that incorporates commodity models and commodity price linkages, to simulate various types of commodity price impacts.     

The impact of early-life economic conditionson cause-specific mortality during adulthood

The aim of this study is to assess the effects of economic conditions in early life on cause-specific mortality during adulthood. The analyses are performed on a unique historical sample of 14,520 Dutch individuals born in 1880–1918, who are followed throughout life. The economic conditions in early life are characterized using cyclical variations in annual real per capital gross domestic product during pregnancy and the first year of life. Exposure to recessions in early life appears to significantly increase cancer mortality risks of older males and females. It also significantly increases other mortality risks especially for older females. The residual life expectancies are up to about 8 and 6 % lower for male and female cancer mortality, respectively, and up to about 5 % lower for female cardiovascular mortality. Our analyses show that cardiovascular and cancer mortality risks are related and that not taking this association into account leads to biased inference.     

Job Durations With Worker- and Firm-Specific Effects: MCMC Estimation With Longitudinal Employer–Employee Data

We study job durations using a multivariate hazard model allowing for worker-specific and firm-specific unobserved determinants. The latter are captured by unobserved heterogeneity terms or random effects, one at the firm level and another at the worker level. This enables us to decompose the variation in job durations into the relative contribution of the worker and the firm. We also allow the unobserved terms to be correlated in a model that is primarily relevant for markets with small firms. For the empirical analysis, we use a Portuguese longitudinal matched employer–employee dataset. The model is estimated with a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation method. The results imply that unobserved firm characteristics explain almost 40% of the systematic variation in log job durations. In addition, we find a positive correlation between unobserved worker and firm characteristics.     

The cosmopolitan imagination: critical cosmopolitanism and social theory

Critical cosmopolitanism is an emerging direction in social theory and reflects both an object of study and a distinctive methodological approach to the social world. It differs from normative political and moral accounts of cosmopolitanism as world polity or universalistic culture in its conception of cosmopolitanism as socially situated and as part of the self-constituting nature of the social world itself. It is an approach that shifts the emphasis to internal developmental processes within the social world rather than seeing globalization as the primary mechanism. This signals a post-universalistic kind of cosmopolitanism, which is not merely a condition of diversity but is articulated in cultural models of world openness through which societies undergo transformation. The cosmopolitan imagination is articulated in framing processes and cultural models by which the social world is constituted; it is therefore not reducible to concrete identities, but should be understood as a form of cultural contestation in which the logic of translation plays a central role. The cosmopolitan imagination can arise in any kind of society and at any time but it is integral to modernity, in so far as this is a condition of self-problematization, incompleteness and the awareness that certainty can never be established once and for all. As a methodologically grounded approach, critical cosmopolitan sociology has a very specific task: to discern or make sense of social transformation by identifying new or emergent social realities.     

Effects of resident-oriented care on job characteristics of nursing caregivers

This study evaluates the effects of the implementation of resident-oriented care on the job characteristics (job autonomy, job demands and social support) of nursing caregivers in three Dutch nursing homes. In a quasi-experimental design, experimental and control groups in both general and psychogeriatric wards were followed for up to 22 months, using a pre-test and two post-tests by means of written questionnaires and semi-structured interviews. The results showed that the intervention appeared to be partly successful. Last post-test regression analyses revealed significant increases in a number of design characteristics of resident-oriented care. Significant increases were noticed on resident assignment, the two variables measuring the nursing process and, in the psychogeriatric experimental group, on resident-oriented tasks (p≤.01). The effects on job characteristics were limited. An indicative increase was shown in contextual job autonomy in the experimental group (p≤.05). The qualitative data derived from the interviews showed that there was still a partly task-oriented division of labour. Further, the delegation of co-ordination tasks to nursing caregivers had not yet been properly achieved. The study concludes with some theoretical and methodological reflections in the light of the findings.     

Group testing in graphs

This paper studies the group testing problem in graphs as follows. Given a graph G=(V,E), determine the minimum number t(G) such that t(G) tests are sufficient to identify an unknown edge e with each test specifies a subset X⊆V and answers whether the unknown edge e is in G[X] or not. Damaschke proved that ⌈log ₂ e(G)⌉≤t(G)≤⌈log ₂ e(G)⌉+1 for any graph G, where e(G) is the number of edges of G. While there are infinitely many complete graphs that attain the upper bound, it was conjectured by Chang and Hwang that the lower bound is attained by all bipartite graphs. Later, they proved that the conjecture is true for complete bipartite graphs. Chang and Juan verified the conjecture for bipartite graphs G with e(G)≤2⁴ or for k≥5. This paper proves the conjecture for bipartite graphs G with e(G)≤2⁵ or for k≥6. Dedicated to Professor Frank K. Hwang on the occasion of his 65th birthday. J.S.-t.J. is supported in part by the National Science Council under grant NSC89-2218-E-260-013. G.J.C. is supported in part by the National Science Council under grant NSC93-2213-E002-28. Taida Institute for Mathematical Sciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei 10617, Taiwan. National Center for Theoretical Sciences, Taipei Office.     

Updating the Critical Perspective on Corporate Social Responsibility

This paper argues that Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is a key element of the new neo‐liberalism as it searches for both legitimacy and new sources of innovation. Rather than simply being a fraud or a drain on resources as CSR is often portrayed, we argue that it is one of a suite of practices that corporations are deploying as they seek to shift the nature of social regulation away from collective to more individual solutions. While the criticism that CSR is corporate propaganda has purchase, we explore a deeper development. This development is one wherein as the old ways of capitalist regulation were surpassed in the 1970s and 1980s new social practices such as CSR, Human Resource Management, ethical marketing etc. were deployed as a way of engineering new forms of identity, new expectations of individuals and institutions and new sources of legitimacy and social value. Social criticism needs to take this development more seriously (than the propaganda view) since it frames CSR as a predatory facet of this new neo‐liberalist tendency.     

Stepping stones for the unemployed: the effect of temporary jobs on the duration until (regular) work

Transitions from unemployment into temporary work are often succeeded by a transition from temporary into regular work. This paper investigates whether temporary work increases the transition rate to regular work. We use longitudinal survey data of individuals to estimate a multi-state duration model, applying the ‘timing of events’ approach. The data contain multiple spells in labour market states at the individual level. We analyse results using novel graphical representations, which unambiguously show that temporary jobs shorten the unemployment duration, although they do not increase the fraction of unemployed workers having regular work within a few years after entry into unemployment.     

Adolescents and Music Media: Toward an Involvement‐Mediational Model of Consumption and Self‐Concept

Using social cognitive theory and structural regression modeling, we examined pathways between early adolescents' music media consumption, involvement with music media, and 3 domains of self‐concept (physical appearance, romantic appeal, and global self‐worth; N=124). A mediational model was supported for 2 domains of self‐concept. Music media consumption was positively associated with adolescents' involvement with media focusing on music personae. Higher involvement was associated with perceiving the self as less physically attractive and having lower overall self‐worth. Music media consumption was directly related to adolescents' evaluations of their own romantic appeal. Results suggest that through involvement processes with music media characters, adolescents may use music media as a venue for social comparison against which they evaluate their own physical attractiveness and self‐worth. Music media consumption may also provide social modeling for normative expectations about romantic relationships regardless of the level of involvement. Gender differences were nonsignificant in the mediational model.