A note on the Hodges–Lehmann estimator

The Hodges‐Lehmann estimator was originally developed as a non‐parametric estimator of a shift parameter. As it is widely used in statistical applications, the question is investigated what it is estimating if the shift model does not hold. It is shown that for data whose distributions are symmetric about their median the Hodges–Lehmann estimator based on the Wilcoxon Rank Sum test estimates the difference between the medians of the distributions. This result does generally not hold if the symmetry assumption is violated. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wandlungen des Sterbens im Krankenhaus und die Konflikte zwischen Krankenrolle und Sterberolle

Dying in hospital has long been considered as inevitable but talking about it should be avoided, if possible. For some time now, new ideals of dying demand higher social expectations and requirements for the care of dying people (e.g. psycho-social and spiritual care). This trend can also be found in hospitals. On the basis of a running micro-sociological observational study carried out so far in four hospitals and two hospices the social organisation of dying in the hospital is being investigated and results are presented with an example of a case study. Observed dying trajectories show that the staff refers to two competing metaphors as an interpretative frame for performing its work that we call the ideal of the “short and good” dying and the ideal of the “long and laborious” dying. These idealisation correspond with the practice of “discrete” dying (that have been found in hospitals until the 1970s and that are still dominant in the medical world) and with the practice of “intimating” dying (which are drawn from the demands of the hospice-movement). Within this interpretative frame the staff is able to cope with uncertainties of the dying process. The idealisa-tions help to reformulate cumulative mess trajectories as successful and good work and thus tensions between the sick role and the dying role are minimised.     

Microeconometric models and anonymized micro data

Summary The paper first provides a short review of the most common microeconometric models including logit, probit, discrete choice, duration models, models for count data and Tobit-type models. In the second part we consider the situation that the micro data have undergone some anonymization procedure which has become an important issue since otherwise confidentiality would not be guaranteed. We shortly describe the most important approaches for data protection which also can be seen as creating errors of measurement by purpose. We also consider the possibility of correcting the estimation procedure while taking into account the anonymization procedure. We illustrate this for the case of binary data which are anonymized by ‘post-randomization’ and which are used in a probit model. We show the effect of ‘naive’ estimation, i. e. when disregarding the anonymization procedure. We also show that a ‘corrected’ estimate is available which is satisfactory in statistical terms. This is also true if parameters of the anonymization procedure have to be estimated, too. Research in this paper is related to the project “Faktische Anonymisierung wirtschaftsstatistischer Einzeldaten” financed by German Ministry of Research and Technology.     

Estimation of linear models with anonymised panel data

The paper analyses the biasing effect of anonymising micro data by multiplicative stochastic noise on the within estimation of a linear panel model. In short panels, additional bias results from serially correlated regressors. Results in this paper are related to the project “Firms’ Panel Data and Factual Anonymisation,” which is financed by Federal Ministry of Education and Research. We would like to thank the anonymous referees for helpful comments.     

“A 30% Chance of Rain Tomorrow”: How Does the Public Understand Probabilistic Weather Forecasts?

The weather forecast says that there is a "30% chance of rain," and we think we understand what it means. This quantitative statement is assumed to be unambiguous and to convey more information than does a qualitative statement like "It might rain tomorrow." Because the forecast is expressed as a single-event probability, however, it does not specify the class of events it refers to. Therefore, even numerical probabilities can be interpreted by members of the public in multiple, mutually contradictory ways. To find out whether the same statement about rain probability evokes various interpretations, we randomly surveyed pedestrians in five metropolises located in countries that have had different degrees of exposure to probabilistic forecasts--Amsterdam, Athens, Berlin, Milan, and New York. They were asked what a "30% chance of rain tomorrow" means both in a multiple-choice and a free-response format. Only in New York did a majority of them supply the standard meteorological interpretation, namely, that when the weather conditions are like today, in 3 out of 10 cases there will be (at least a trace of) rain the next day. In each of the European cities, this alternative was judged as the least appropriate. The preferred interpretation in Europe was that it will rain tomorrow "30% of the time," followed by "in 30% of the area." To improve risk communication with the public, experts need to specify the reference class, that is, the class of events to which a single-event probability refers.     

Statistical Inference for Curved Fibrous Objects in 3D – Based on Multiple Short Observations of Multivariate Autoregressive Processes

This paper deals with statistical inference on the parameters of a stochastic model, describing curved fibrous objects in three dimensions, that is based on multivariate autoregressive processes. The model is fitted to experimental data consisting of a large number of short independently sampled trajectories of multivariate autoregressive processes. We discuss relevant statistical properties (e.g. asymptotic behaviour as the number of trajectories tends to infinity) of the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators for such processes. Numerical studies are also performed to analyse some of the more intractable properties of the ML estimators. Finally the whole methodology, i.e., the fibre model and its statistical inference, is applied to appropriately describe the tracking of fibres in real materials.