Region-specific versus country-specific poverty lines in analysis of poverty

An analysis of poverty based on a country-specific income poverty line suffers from disregarding regional differences in prices and needs within a country and may, therefore, produce results that give a misleading picture of the extent of poverty as well as the geographic and demographic composition of the poor. To account for differences in prices and needs, this paper introduces an alternative method for identifying the poor based on a set of region-specific poverty lines. Applying Norwegian household register data for 2001 we find that the national level of poverty is only slightly affected by the change in definition of poverty line. However, the geographic as well as the demographic poverty profiles are shown to depend heavily on whether the method for identifying the poor relies on region- or country-specific thresholds. As expected, the results demonstrate that an analysis of poverty based on a country-specific threshold produces downward biased poverty rates in urban areas and upward biased poverty rates in rural areas. Moreover, when region-specific poverty thresholds form the basis of the poverty analysis, we find that the poverty rates among young singles and non-western immigrants are significantly higher than what is suggested by previous empirical evidence based on a joint country-specific poverty line.     

Changing American home life: trends in domestic leisure and storage among middle-class families

This study of middle-class American families draws on ethnography and urban economic history, focusing on patterns of leisure time and household consumption and clutter. We trace how residential life evolved historically from cramped urban quarters into contemporary middle-class residences and examine how busy working families use house spaces. Our ethnographic sample consists of 24 Los Angeles families in which both parents work full time, have young children, and own their homes. Formal datasets include systematically timed family uses of home spaces, a large digital archive of photographs, and family-narrated video home tours. This analysis highlights a salient home-storage crisis, a marked shift in the uses of yards and garages, and the dissolution of outdoor leisure for busy working parents. The UCLA Center on Everyday Lives of Families (CELF) is generously supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation program on the Workplace, Workforce, and Working Families. Anthony Graesch assisted with the tables. Additional information about CELF can be found at www.celf.ucla.edu.     

Assessing goodness-of-fit for evaluation of dose-proportionality

For the clinical development of a new drug, the determination of dose-proportionality is an essential part of the pharmacokinetic evaluations, which may provide early indications of non-linear pharmacokinetics and may help to identify sub-populations with divergent clearances. Prior to making any conclusions regarding dose-proportionality, the goodness-of-fit of the model must be assessed to evaluate the model performance. We propose the use of simulation-based visual predictive checks to improve the validity of dose-proportionality conclusions for complex designs. We provide an illustrative example and include a table to facilitate review by regulatory authorities.     

深基坑变形影响因子分析及预测方法研究

影响基坑变形的因子有很多，有主要因子和次要因子。根据实际工程经验以及相关资料，在较为全面地总结所有影响基坑变形因子的基础上，结合层次分析法，筛选出主要影响因子，建立一定的量化标准。将影响因子作为输入层，构建基于主要影响因子的BP神经网络。结合天津市中国铁建国际城1D地块深基坑工程，选出围护结构发生明显变形的各时间段，建立17×106的训练数据，采用黄金分割法对隐含层的节点数进行筛选，以4 m，8 m，12 m，16 m处的变形数据为目标层进行训练和仿真。最后，对其它测斜点的变形进行预测，精度满足要求，验证了这种影响因子选择和样本选择方法的有效性，对基坑变形预测有一定的应用指导意义。     

低生育水平下中国人口规模与年龄结构的变化

本文借助一些机构对21世纪中叶中国人口变化的预测 ,就未来50年低生育水平对中国人口规模和年龄结构的影响进行了初步的分析     

A chain game for distributed trading and negotiation

This position paper introduces a simulation gaming environment for enacting a production network. The environment aims to be an integrative laboratory for investigating supply networks, as well as being a versatile training tool. The primary focus is on food production networks. The environment enables a number of teams of participants, each representing one actor in a food chain, to conduct business together. The teams can have the role of auction, co-operation, wholesaler, factory, retail chain, and retail outlet. Producers and consumers are either enacted or simulated. The game leaders freely determine the products and production methods in each run of the game. The gaming environment takes performance, process and institutional aspects of chains into account. It is particularly suited for investigating issues of sustainability and trust. Currently the gaming environment is under development. The paper presents version 1B. This version can be found at http://www.chaingame.org. It runs on the Web, enabling to model distributed chains.     

Figuration und Emergenz

The paper reconstructs the methodology of Norbert Elias against the background of his ontology. Thereby Robert van Kriekens thesis will be defended that Elias is a proponent of a “third sociology”. His ontology shows that figurations are integrated wholes. Human beings form the parts of this wholes and necessarily build up social relations based upon their “relational properties”. This model of social wholes builds the finishing part of a mereological ontology of layers of the natural and social world. Physical-chemical wholes can reductively explained, biological and sociological wholes are ontologically and epistemologically irreducible because of phenomena of emergence. This ontology of Elias serves as a background for his methodology which does not favour individualist but moderat holist or relationalist explanations. With a new definition of social emergence it can be shown that relations are central factors of sociological explanations which can be found in Elias’ historical-sociological studies.?Keywords:Norbert Elias ? Ontology ? Methodology ? Third sociology ? Part-whole ? Methodological individualism ? Methodological relationalism ? Relational sociology ? Emergence ? Figuration ? Micro-macro     

Efficiency of lattice conditional independence models for multinormal samples with non-monotone missing data

For multivariate normal data with non-monotone (i.e. arbitrary) missing data patterns, lattice conditional independence (LCI) models determined by the observed data patterns can be used to obtain closed-form MLEs (Andersson and Perlman, 1991, 1993). In this paper, three procedures — LCI models, the EM algorithm, and the complete-data method — are compared by means of a Monte Carlo experiment. When the LCI model is accepted by the LR test, the LCI estimate is more efficient than those based on the EM algorithm and the complete-data method. When the LCI model is not accepted, the LCI estimate may lose efficiency but still may be more efficient than the EM estimate if the observed data is sparse. When the LCI model appears too restrictive, it may be possible to obtain a less restrictive LCI model by.discarding only a small portion of the incomplete observations. LCI models appear to be especially useful when the observed data is sparse, even in cases where the suitability of the LCI model is uncertain.     

Runtime and memory consumption analyses for machine learning R programs

R is a multi-paradigm language with a dynamic type system, different object systems and functional characteristics. These characteristics support the development of statistical algorithms at a high level of abstraction. Although R is commonly used in the statistics domain a big disadvantage are its runtime problems when handling computation-intensive algorithms. Especially in the domain of machine learning the execution of pure R programs is often unacceptably slow. Our long-term goal is to resolve these issues and in this contribution we used the traceR tool to analyse the bottlenecks arising in this domain. Here we measured the runtime and overall memory consumption on a well-defined set of classical machine learning applications and gained detailed insights into the performance issues of these programs.