The Role of Historical Knowledge in Perception of Race-Based Conspiracies

We test the hypothesis that knowledge of historically documented, anti-black conspiracies affects perceived plausibility of new, anti-black conspiracies. In Experiment 1 (N = 78), African Americans and European Americans read about a current conspiracy aimed at undermining either African American or European American–elected officials. African Americans perceived the anti-black conspiracy as more plausible and the conspiracy informant as more credible than did European Americans. The difference in perception of informant credibility was mediated by recognition of historically documented, anti-black conspiracies. In Experiment 2, we manipulated European Americans’ (N = 105) exposure to information about historically documented, anti-black conspiracies. European Americans who learned about actual, past anti-black conspiracies perceived new anti-black conspiracies as more plausible than did European Americans who learned about race-silent conspiracies or who did not learn about conspiracies. To the extent that European Americans lack awareness of incidents of racism in US history, they are likely to underestimate the possibility that racism impacts contemporary events.     

URban Biotopes of Aotearoa New Zealand (URBANZ) (I): composition and diversity of temperate urban lawns in Christchurch

Christchurch urban lawns are dominated by non-native grasses and forbs. However, we document considerable plant diversity; the total number of species encountered in our 327 sampled lawns was 127, although 80 species occurred in <2% of lawns. Seven distinct lawn communities were identified by Two-Way INdicator SPecies ANalysis using occurrence of 47 species that occurred in > 2% of lawns. Our ability to explain variation in species composition was surprisingly good and indicates intensity of lawn maintenance such as frequency of mowing, irrigation, fertiliser, and herbicide use and whether clippings are removed or not plays the major role. Species richness significantly declines with an increase in total area of contiguous lawn, leaf litter cover, the presence of grass clippings, and on loamy soil. Hence, park lawns with coarser management had lower species richness than residential lawns. Native species were more prevalent in well tended residential lawns, where more frequent mowing and removal of clippings or litter build-up diminishes shoot competition or shading. There is tremendous potential for more native species in New Zealand lawns which would contribute substantially to the conservation of endangered lowland herbaceous flora.     

Social Capital, Social Funds and Poor Communities: An Exploratory Analysis

Social capital has captured the attention of social policy-makers and development administrators, with its emphasis on social relationships, civic participation, collaborative action and norms of reciprocity. Social funds support small-scale community-based development projects aimed primarily at reducing poverty. This article synthesizes the relevant literature and explores the nexus between social capital and social funds in relation to poor communities. Drawing upon primary research in Jamaica, the article reports the outcomes of eight social fund sub-projects that involved local organizations in community-driven development processes. It analyses the role of social networks and the influence of community power structures in social capital creation. Social policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

Improving Revenue Management Decision Making for Airlines by Evaluating Analyst‐Adjusted Passenger Demand Forecasts*

To maximize revenue, airline revenue management analysts (RMAs) attempt to protect the right number of seats for late‐booking, high‐revenue‐generating passengers from low‐valued leisure passengers. Simulation results in the past showed that a major airline can generate approximately $500 million per year through efficient RM operations. Accurate passenger demand forecasts are required, because reduced forecast error significantly improves revenue. RMAs often adjust the system forecasts to improve revenue opportunity. Analysis of system forecast performance and analyst adjustment is complex, because one must account for all unseen demands throughout the life of a flight. This article proposes a method to account for unseen demand and evaluate forecast performance (adjusted or unadjusted) through a forecast monitoring system. Initial results from one major airline's origin‐destination market data justify the value of RMA forecasting adjustments.     

Search,Obfuscation, and Price Elasticities on the Internet

We examine the competition between a group of Internet retailers who operate in an environment where a price search engine plays a dominant role. We show that for some products in this environment, the easy price search makes demand tremendously price‐sensitive. Retailers, though, engage in obfuscation—practices that frustrate consumer search or make it less damaging to firms—resulting in much less price sensitivity on some other products. We discuss several models of obfuscation and examine its effects on demand and markups empirically.     

PM effect size estimation for mediation analysis: a cautionary note,alternate strategy,and real data illustration

As research on mediation has grown, so too has interest in identifying ways to assess the size of indirect effects in a mediation analysis. One such estimate – the ratio of the indirect effect to the total effect (P_M) – was tested in a sample of 21,297 children from the Early Childhood Developmental Study. Results showed that the two independent variables – low self-control and externalizing behavior – correlated equally well with a common mediator (mathematical thinking). Moreover, the two pathways shared the same mediator and dependent variable (subsequent externalizing behavior). Despite this, P_M was three times larger in the self-control-initiated pathway than in the externalizing-initiated pathway, based on a stronger correlation between prior and subsequent externalizing behavior than between low self-control and externalizing behavior. The comparison pathways approach, where pathways mediated by mathematical reasoning are contrasted with pathways mediated by a control variable (general knowledge), is offered as an alternative to effect size measurement in mediation research.