A macro-micro approach to analyzing the determinants of price changes

This paper suggests an approach to analyzing the determinants of changes in industrial prices which provides a bridge between the broad macro perspectives of the Walrasian approach and the narrowly focussed micro approach of traditional demand and supply analysis. The analytical usefulness of the proposed approach is then explored through applications to several industrial price series. Finally, efforts are made to account for some of the interactions between product-specific short-term price adjustments and wider as well as longer-term price movements.     

Can child fatalities,end product of child abuse,be prevented?

Study of a sample of child abuse/neglect families where a child fatality has occurred suggests several indicators for identifying potential child fatalities. In contrast to families where child abuse is not followed by a child fatality, child abuse cases where a fatality does occur are characterized by abuse of more than one child in the family, a more chaotic family constellation, the mother as perpetrator of the abuse, and high levels of both human and milieu stress. The study also identifies gaps in services to sample families and suggests changes.     

From backcasting towards forecasting

A comprehensive study of expected and actual industry growth patterns has suggested that a number of shortcomings in statistical forecasting derive from the role of “backcasting” in widely used methods of estimating probable future adjustment paths. After examining attendant problems and the conceptual bases for ameliorating them, attention in the paper centers on describing a technique for effecting some of these improvements and on analyzing the findings obtained by applying it to 28 series over periods of 60–80 years. Resulting implications for strengthening business and economic forecasting efforts are then discussed.     

Practical statistical considerations for investigating anti-tumor treatments in mice

Anti-tumor treatment outcomes in mouse experiments can be challenging to interpret and communicate accurately. In reporting these experiments, rigorous statistical considerations are commonly absent, although statistical applications have been proposed. We investigated the practicality and utility of different statistical strategies for the analysis of anti-tumor responses in a longitudinal mouse case study. Each analysis that we performed had different endpoints, investigated different questions, and was based on different assumptions. We found rudimentary visual and risk analysis insufficient without additional considerations, and upon further investigation we found improvements in key anti-tumor parameter estimates associated with a drug combination in our case study. We offer practical statistical considerations for investigating anti-cancer treatments in mice, applying a multi-tier statistical approach.     

Relation of transition probabilities in the Leslie model to those from experimental cumulative distributions

Summary We explore the relationship between transition probabilities in the Leslie model and those derived from experimental cumulative distributions. The nature of the two kinds of probabilities are discussed, and a formula derived for converting from one to the other. A numerical example is given to illustrate the differences.     

The rising influence of evangelicalism in American political behavior, 1980–2004

Connections between evangelicalism and political behavior are explored using National Election Study (NES) data from 1980 to 2004. Our findings suggest that although white evangelical support for Republican presidential candidates has increased, the independent effect of evangelicalism on voting has weakened. We argue that this reflects an increasing convergence between evangelicalism and Republican Party identification. Beginning in the 1990s, as more and more evangelicals identified as Republicans, the independent effect of their religious commitment on voting weakened. We also find strengthening correlations between evangelicalism and policy preferences, especially on non-social issues, and enhanced Republican mobilization of evangelical voters in recent campaigns. We conclude with the suggestion that changes in evangelical political behavior over a 24-year period support the notion of an electoral realignment in American politics.     

On the adoption of technological innovations in industry: Superficial models and complex decision processes

Attention is directed first to the external as well as the internal contexts within which prospective innovations are evaluated. Turning to the actual decision-making processes, a review of the evaluational bases for decision is followed by consideration of how these lead to actual decisions and often to subsequent revisions of the original decisions. The final section is concerned with some common shortcomings of prevailing approaches to evaluating the post-installation effects of technological innovations in industry. It also offers some suggestions for improving such efforts and for using such improvements to enhance the effective appraisal of future innovations.