Dissolution of first unions in Colombia,Panama, and Peru

An analysis of marital histories from World Fertility Survey data in Colombia, Panama, and Peru indicates a high level of union dissolution: the probabilities of a first union ending by separation within twenty years of the onset of union equal .27, .40, and .18 in the three countries respectively. Dissolution probabilities are especially high among women with young ages at first union and among women residing in urban areas. For all subgroups studied, consensual unions are characterized by several times the risk of separation of legal marriages. Consensual unions are especially frequent among women in rural areas, women with little education and women who enter unions at young ages. The different prevalence of consensual unions among the different subgroups affects the associations between union stability and various correlates so that it becomes essential to investigate the factors affecting union stability for both consensual unions and legal marriages. In spite of high dissolution rates, remarriage rates in all three countries are also high, as are the percentages of time spent in a union. Hence, the potential effects of voluntary disruption of unions on fertility appear to be modest.     

The Consequences of Migration to the United States for Short-Term Changes in the Health of Mexican Immigrants

Although many studies have attempted to examine the consequences of Mexico-U.S. migration for Mexican immigrants’ health, few have had adequate data to generate the appropriate comparisons. In this article, we use data from two waves of the Mexican Family Life Survey (MxFLS) to compare the health of current migrants from Mexico with those of earlier migrants and nonmigrants. Because the longitudinal data permit us to examine short-term changes in health status subsequent to the baseline survey for current migrants and for Mexican residents, as well as to control for the potential health selectivity of migrants, the results provide a clearer picture of the consequences of immigration for Mexican migrant health than have previous studies. Our findings demonstrate that current migrants are more likely to experience recent changes in health status—both improvements and declines—than either earlier migrants or nonmigrants. The net effect, however, is a decline in health for current migrants: compared with never migrants, the health of current migrants is much more likely to have declined in the year or two since migration and not significantly more likely to have improved. Thus, it appears that the migration process itself and/or the experiences of the immediate post-migration period detrimentally affect Mexican immigrants’ health.     

Preservice Teachers’ Sources of Information on Mandatory Reporting of Child Sexual Abuse

Teachers in many countries are mandated by law, professional codes, or education authorities to report child abuse and neglect, including child sexual abuse. However, teachers may not receive adequate preparation for such sensitive interventions, as preservice teacher education degrees provide very few or no compulsory courses on child protection and crucially related, lifelong health and well-being issues. So, where do preservice teachers source their information regarding the mandatory reporting of such abuse? This research examines preservice teachers’ professional university education for their sources of information about mandatory reporting and child sexual abuse. A sample cohort of 56 final 4th-year university bachelor of education (primary school) student teachers in Australia identified the sources they used regarding 10 important aspects of child protection. The results suggest that most did not learn about mandatory reporting or child sexual abuse, and others cited sparse and sporadic public media as their primary information source. These findings, building on previous evidence about inadequate or nonexistent preservice mandatory intervention courses in primary teacher education, may guide the design of appropriate training responses enhancing educational professionals’ knowledge, competencies, skills, and efficacies as mandatory reporters of child sexual abuse.     

The potential impact of comparative effectiveness research on U.S. Health Care expenditures

Comparative effectiveness research (CER) has the potential to slow health care spending growth by focusing resources on health interventions that provide the most value. In this article, we discuss issues surrounding CER and its implementation and apply these methods to a salient clinical example: treatment of prostate cancer. Physicians have several options for treating patients recently diagnosed with localized disease, including removal of the prostate (radical prostatectomy), treatment with radioactive seeds (brachytherapy), radiation therapy (IMRT), or—if none of these are pursued—active surveillance. Using a commercial health insurance claims database and after adjustment for comorbid conditions, we estimate that the additional cost of treatment with radical prostatectomy is $7,300, while other alternatives are more expensive—$19,000 for brachytherapy and $46,900 for IMRT. However, a review of the clinical literature uncovers no evidence that justifies the use of these more expensive approaches. These results imply that if patient management strategies were shifted to those supported by CER-based criteria, an estimated $1.7 to $3.0 billion (2009 present value) could be saved each year.     

Managerial Strategies and the Worker: a Marxist Analysis of Bureaucracy*

Systematic study of the sociology of organizations is almost absent in both the classical and modern Marxist traditions. Although some recent studies in the Marxist tradition show considerable promise, the field has been dominated by the Weberian perspective. The development of new theory should be informed by the Marxian concepts of (a) labor theory of value, (b) the forces and relations of production, (c) historical development of capitalism, and (d) class structure and class struggle. Bourgeois organizational theory has some serious deficiencies, but there is much of value that can be subsumed under the broader rubric of Marxist political economy. The potential for a Marxist theory of bureaucracy is explored in an examination of managerial strategies to minimize external uncertainties in a monopoly capitalist system, and internal uncertainties arising from the work force. Strategies for controlling the work force include the division of labor, organizational hierarchy, rules and procedures, the uses of secrecy and hoarding of knowledge, and the maintenance of ethnic and sexual divisions in the work force. Further research is needed on (a) differentiating capital accumulation and social control strategies, (b) comparisons between workers in the state and corporate sectors, (c) comparisons between work organization under full range of socialist economies and those in capitalist economies in both manufacturing and government and (d) alternatives for the future.     

Structured or General Enrichment Programmes for Preschool Children?

The burgeoning interest in preschool education is not without its problems. Not least of these are issues relating to an educational philosophy to guide the types of programmes developed in preschools for different groups of children (especially those labelled ‘socio-culturally’ disadvantaged). In addition, there are problems of implementation connected with the financing of the preschool movement, and the provision of adequate numbers of professionally prepared staff. This article attempts to examine critically some of the key issues in enrichment programmes for preschool children, and subsequently to make some policy recommendations.     

Advances in the P/F ratio method for the analysis of birth histories

Abstract One of the most frequently used indirect techniques for deriving estimates of recent fertility from simple questions in censuses and surveys is the 'P/F ratio' method. Availability of detailed birth-history data, as in the World Fertility Survey, and applications of the P/F procedure as a diagnostic tool in the evaluation of the quality of data have led to simplifications and extensions of the original method. This analysis illustrates that when complete maternity histories are available, the P/F procedure can be simplified and made more powerful by (1) calculation of P/F values from cohort-period fertility rates and (2) use of two further indexing variables, namely duration since first marriage and duration since first birth, in addition to age. More generally, the paper indicates that a set of P/F values is only one of a battery of measures which aid in the analysis of trends and errors in data from maternity histories. Illustrative examples are given from various analyses of world Fertility Survey data. Howard Goldberg has been independently pursuing an investigation of the P/F procedure by marriage duration at the Office of Population Research (Princeton University), and we have profited from recent discussions with him. We would also like to acknowledge useful comments and criticisms on earlier drafts from James Trussell and Kenneth Hill.     

Probabilistic text understanding

We discuss a new framework for text understanding. Three major design decisions characterize this approach. First, we take the problem of text understanding to be a particular case of the general problem of abductive inference. Second, we use probability theory to handle the uncertainty which arises in this abductive inference process. Finally, all aspects of natural language processing are treated in the same framework, allowing us to integrate syntactic, semantic and pragmatic constraints. In order to apply probability theory to this problem, we have developed a probabilistic model of text understanding. To make it practical to use this model, we have devised a way of incrementally constructing and evaluating belief networks. We have written a program,wimp3, to experiment with this framework. To evaluate this program, we have developed a simple single-blind testing method.     

The effect of variability in the fertility schedule on numbers of kin

"The kinship formulas developed by Goodman, Keyfitz, and Pullum (1974) are extended to encompass populations in which fertility varies among women. An expression is derived to determine the amount by which the number of sisters in a heterogeneous population exceeds that in a population with homogeneous fertility. This expression, which is a function of the variance in the gross reproduction rate of the population, can readily be applied to numbers of other kin, such as aunts and cousins. Several trial calculations indicate that calculations of average numbers of sisters based on an assumption of uniform fertility could result in a underestimate of about 13 percent." (SUMMARY IN FRE)