Bayesian Estimation of Stochastic Discount Factors

This article provides a Bayesian method of estimating the marginal posterior distributions for stochastic discount factors associated with observed asset returns. These estimates can be used to provide measures of fit for asset-pricing models and to identify broad features of the characteristics that should be explained. These measures of fit can be used to supplement model-evaluation exercises based on Hansen–Jagannathan bounds     

Youth Development: On the Path Toward Professionalization

Youth development in the United States is making a transition from social movement to emerging profession. This article marks the path of this transition; charts achievements in developing core competencies and skill standards, training and education programs, career ladders, evaluations, and public awareness; and suggests the next steps in staff development that managers of nonprofit youth and human service organizations should consider.     

Letter writing in the intercultural classroom: the case of retraining courses for immigrant English teachers in Israel

Training of immigrant teachers offers ample opportunities for intercultural interactions, yet it also requires unique sensitivities. On the one hand, immigrant teachers are often qualified and experienced. At the same time, immigration forces them out of their comfort zone, entailing some loss of professional status and self-esteem. The essay suggests letter writing as a method that aims to address these often-neglected aspects in the training of immigrant teachers and is based on a course given to new immigrant English teachers in Israel.     

Same Baby,Fresh Bathwater: Restructuring the PSA Meetings

The changes to the way that the program is built for the PSA annual meetings offered some exciting new possibilities and successes, but there were also problems. This paper suggests a hybrid between the new and old systems in order to allow continued involvement by committees and other PSA members in shaping the program. Suggestions are also given for ensuring quality of papers, increasing attendance, and providing increased opportunities for interaction and networking.     

Rethinking Aotearoa’s human geography

This essay is a reconsideration of my attempt as a geography Master’s candidate in 1950, to estimate the Maori population of New Zealand about the time of James Cook’s 1769–1773 voyages. Thinking that the 100,000 estimated by J. R. Forster, naturalist with Cook , excluded significant populations, I proposed a number approaching 250,000. But the subsequent rise of particular Social Sciences with a focus on Maori prehistory has challenged some earlier authorities. Critical evaluations of historical sources, demographic analysis, archaeological calculations based on settlement-sites, residues of fish and shellfish consumed, and analyses of past evaluations, generally suggest estimates not much exceeding 100,000 despite severe losses incurred through introduced diseases and tribal wars between 1770 and 1840. Parallels to losses among Pacific Islanders exist, yet may be deceptive. A survey of recent authorities on the Maori indicates general acceptance of deflated estimates.     

Lottery Acquisition versus Information Acquisition: Prices and Preference Reversals

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - Suppose you must choose between two pieces of information A and B. In the absence of cost, you would prefer to obtain A rather than B, and in fact would be willing...     

RELATIONAL SCHEMAS, HOSTILE ROMANTIC RELATIONSHIPS, AND BELIEFS ABOUT MARRIAGE AMONG YOUNG AFRICAN AMERICAN ADULTS

The present study tests a developmental model designed to explain the romantic relationship difficulties and reluctance to marry often reported for African Americans. Using longitudinal data from a sample of approximately 400 African American young adults, we examine the manner in which race-related adverse experiences during late childhood and early adolescence give rise to the cynical view of romantic partners and marriage held by many young African Americans. Our results indicate that adverse circumstances disproportionately suffered by African American youth (viz., harsh parenting, family instability, discrimination, criminal victimization, and financial hardship) promote distrustful relational schemas that lead to troubled dating relationships, and that these negative relationship experiences, in turn, encourage a less positive view of marriage.     

Morality policy processes in advanced industrial democracies

In recent years, several countries have experienced widespread, intense debates about morality issues such as the death penalty, abortion, ART/stem cell research, same-sex marriage, and euthanasia. Assuming the distinctiveness of morality policies from other policy fields, this article analyses three alternative institutional models for explaining variations in the amount of conflict over these morality issues across 24 Western democracies. Is either the US-developed “policy type” model or the European-developed “two worlds” of morality politics, based on religious and secular party systems, applicable more broadly? Are there regional patterns (Europe and non-Europe) to any institutional findings? How does each model contribute to our understanding of morality policy comparatively across Western democracies? We find broader cross-national support for the policy type model, with the two worlds model largely restricted to Europe. The US has more morality policy conflict because of its unusual combination of a political party targeting religiously oriented voters within an institutional framework of multiple venues. The US and other non-European countries have similar patterns of institutional deliberation through decentralization, and the US also has similarities in multiple venues with religious party systems in Europe. Secular European party systems with centralized institutions have the fewest venues for morality policy debate.