Poverty status probability: a new approach to measuring poverty and the progress of the poor

Poverty measurement and the analysis of the progress (or otherwise) of the poor, whether it is societies, families or individuals, is beset with difficulties and controversies surrounding the definition of a poverty line or frontier. Here, borrowing ideas from the mixture model literature, a new approach to assigning poverty-non poverty status is proposed which avoids specifying a frontier, the price is that an agent’s poverty status is only determined to the extent of its chance of being poor. Invoking variants of Gibrat’s law to give structure to the distribution of outcomes for homogeneous subgroups of a population within the context of a finite mixture model of societal outcomes facilitates calculation of an agent’s poverty status probability. From this it is straightforward to calculate all the usual poverty measures as well as other characteristics of the poor and non poor subgroups in a society. These ideas are exemplified in a study of 47 countries in Africa over the recent quarter century which reveals among other things a growing poverty rate and a growing disparity between poor and non poor groups not identified by conventional methods.     

Globalization, labor market transformation, and metropolitan earnings inequality

Numerous studies have noted the increasing levels of inequality in American society, but relatively few have linked this inequality to the dynamics of the global economy. In this study, we examine the impact of five measures of globalization (global capital, foreign direct investment, exports, foreign born non-citizens, and foreign born citizens) and six measures of labor market transformation (deindustrialization, corporate restructuring, bureaucratic burden, casualization, bad jobs, and multiple job holding) on metropolitan-level earnings inequality of full-time, full-year workers 16 years and older. Our study makes several major contributions to the literature. First, we update and extend the long line of studies on metropolitan earnings inequality. Second, we show that these various dimensions of globalization and labor market transformation exert independent and mainly polarizing effects on the earnings distributions of metropolitan areas, net of controls for labor market structure and sociodemographic variables. Third, we demonstrate the benefits of looking at the causes of inequality in the upper and lower tails of the earnings distribution. Finally, we develop a procedure to estimate counterfactual values of earnings inequality for all major metropolitan areas in the US in 2000. In the process, the paper provides a comprehensive accounting of the impact of globalization and labor market transformation on metropolitan earnings inequality.     

Mobility and the Return to Education: Testing a Roy Model with Multiple Markets

Self–selected migration presents one potential explanation for why observed returns to a college education in local labor markets vary widely even though U.S. workers are highly mobile. To assess the impact of self–selection on estimated returns, this paper first develops a Roy model of mobility and earnings where workers choose in which of the 50 states (plus the District of Columbia) to live and work. Available estimation methods are either infeasible for a selection model with so many alternatives or place potentially severe restrictions on earnings and the selection process. This paper develops an alternative econometric methodology that combines Lee's (1983) parametric maximum order statistic approach to reduce the dimensionality of the error terms with more recent work on semiparametric estimation of selection models (e.g., Ahn and Powell (1993)). The resulting semiparametric correction is easy to implement and can be adapted to a variety of other polychotomous choice problems. The empirical work, which uses 1990 U.S. Census data, confirms the role of comparative advantage in mobility decisions. The results suggest that self–selection of higher educated individuals to states with higher returns to education generally leads to upward biases in OLS estimates of the returns to education in state–specific labor markets. While the estimated returns to a college education are significantly biased, correcting for the bias does not narrow the range of returns across states. Consistent with the finding that the corrected return to a college education differs across the U.S., the relative state–to–state migration flows of college– versus high school–educated individuals respond strongly to differences in the return to education and amenities across states.     

Effects of Brief Messages About Antiretroviral Therapy and Condom Use Benefits Among Black and Latino MSM in Three U.S. Cities

This pilot study examined effects of HIV prevention messages about self and partner benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and condom effectiveness on increased intentions for behavior change. Data were from Messages4Men, a study examining prevention messages among 320 HIV-positive and 605 HIV-negative Black and Latino MSM. Men completed a computer-based assessment after message exposure, and multivariable models controlled for risky sex and demographics. A majority of HIV-positive men reported increased intentions for ART use; 22% reported partner benefit information was new. HIV-positive men with a detectable viral load had significantly greater adjusted odds of reporting intentions for ART use. Over half of HIV-negative MSM reported ART benefit information was new, and 88% reported increased intentions to discuss ART use with infected partners. Black MSM anticipated they would increase condom use in response to the self and partner benefit messages. Tailored messages on benefits of ART are needed for MSM.     

Developing cultural competence with LDS clients: Utilizing spiritual genograms in social work practice

ABSTRACT

In recent years, social work has increasingly focused on spirituality and religion as key elements of cultural competence. Consequently, specific strategies have been developed to provide the most appropriate interventions for religious clients. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS) is the fourth largest and the fastest growing church in the United States and is one of the fastest growing churches worldwide. In an effort to facilitate cultural competence with LDS clients, a spiritual assessment tool was developed based upon the genogram. Evaluation of this tool was facilitated through a survey of 100 practitioners. Participants liked the idea of using a spiritual genogram and felt it would be a useful tool in therapy. In general, they thought the questions associated with the spiritual genogram were appropriate and consistent with LDS culture, although numerous suggestions for improvement were offered.     

Parents' Affect,Adolescent Cognitive Representations,and Adolescent Social Development

Prior research regarding the role of parent‐child relationships in children's social development generally has been limited to concurrent or short‐term longitudinal data and has focused primarily on mothers' influence in the early or middle childhood years. Using a multimethod, multiinformant design, the present study extends previous findings by examining whether maternal and paternal affect predicted adolescent social behavior and peer acceptance 2 years later. Both maternal and paternal affect had significant direct and indirect effects (via adolescent cognitive representations of parents) on adolescent negative social behavior as reported by siblings, which in turn predicted decreased peer acceptance as rated by teachers. Findings suggest that both mothers and fathers shape adolescent social development and attest to the importance of exploring multiple pathways that may account for continuity in parent‐child and peer relationships.     

SPC—making it work for the gas transportation business

Transco is the main provider of gas transportation to domestic and commercial customers in mainland Britain. Gas arrives in Britain at a steady rate but is consumed with a distinct diurnal pattern. The safe and timely movement of gas from arrival at the beach in various places in Britain to delivery at burners is the main driver for System Operations. The movement of gas is meticulously controlled and monitored resulting in a mass of information on pressure, flow and temperature. Gas is stored temporarily in various storage vessels and is moved around the pipes and in and out of storage as demand dictates. Demand is mostly dictated by the weather and is therefore subject to much variation. Transco and its predecessors have been transporting gas for over 50 years and are very successful as judged by their excellent safety record and the continual delivery of gas. Nevertheless, the company wished to improve itself and make further use of the many measurements collected. SPC is ideal for improving communication and understanding through increased visibility of data. All companies have special issues to face when they implement SPC, and this paper describes the way these were dealt with in System Operations and the lessons learnt along the way. The first part describes how performance measures were chosen for investigation. It includes a novel use of correlation between output and day-to-day conditions, which was successfully turned into a measure to check the uncheckable. The second part is about the issues involved with early application of SPC when features of the system are still unexplained. SPC has helped enhance understanding of the complex transportation process, encouraged team work, improved performance and provided an objective means of decision making.     

Explicit formulas for generalized family-wise error rates and unimprovable step-down multiple testing procedures

Many multiple testing procedures (MTPs) are available today, and their number is growing. Also available are many type I error rates: the family-wise error rate (FWER), the false discovery rate, the proportion of false positives, and others. Most MTPs are designed to control a specific type I error rate, and it is hard to compare different procedures. We approach the problem by studying the exact level at which threshold step-down (TSD) procedures (an important class of MTPs exemplified by the classic Holm procedure) control the generalized FWER   defined as the probability of k$k$ or more false rejections. We find that level explicitly for any TSD procedure and any k$k$. No assumptions are made about the dependency structure of the p$p$-values of the individual tests. We derive from our formula a criterion for unimprovability   of a procedure in the class of TSD procedures controlling the generalized FWER at a given level. In turn, this criterion implies that for each k$k$ the number of such unimprovable procedures is finite and is greater than one if k>1$k>1$. Consequently, in this case the most rejective procedure in the above class does not exist.