Trust,distrust, and the end of politics-as-we-knew-it: the mood of the nation prior to election 2017

ABSTRACT

New Zealand’s party-political system has, in the past, undergone significant transformations. And recent political events around the world have been marked by anti-establishment distrust, electoral disruption and the rise of populist parties. So the present article asks if this country could be on the verge of similar disruption, and whether there is a mood among the public that could precipitate a phase of populism. An online survey run in May 2017 by Stuff.co.nz and Massey University (supported by comparable opinion polls) is used to investigate this. In spite of significant levels of dissatisfaction and desire for changes, the survey did not reveal a mood for disruptive or systemic political change in the short term. Nonetheless, political fragmentation of the kind seen in proportional systems in Europe could occur in New Zealand in the long term.     

Uncovering bias in order assignment

To mitigate sequencing effects in decision-making, many situations require a set of items to be considered in a random order. When such orderings are repeated, one can test whether randomization indeed obtains, or whether some orderings have been manipulated in order to achieve a favorable result. This paper articulates the key features of this problem and presents three general tests for randomness. These methods are used to analyze the order in which lottery numbers are drawn in Powerball, contestants perform on American Idol, and candidates are placed on election ballots. This last application features frequent manipulation, with potentially serious consequences.     

Can personal budgets really deliver better outcome for all at no cost? Reviewing the evidence,costs and quality

Political recognition of the parlous state of English social care and the urgent need for radical reform led to calls for new policy approaches that address the two key problems it faced: inadequate funding and poor quality and inappropriate provision. The New Labour government was convinced that it had found a way of dealing with these two competing problems and it embarked on a policy, which has subsequently gained cross-party support. The centre-piece was the concept of a personal budget, and was introduced with a belief that there would be major cost savings while improving service user satisfaction. This article will critically explore the evidence for whether the strategy is fulfilling that promise.     

Reliability,Validity, and Classification Accuracy of the DSM-5 Diagnostic Criteria for Gambling Disorder and Comparison to DSM-IV

The DSM-5 was published in 2013 and it included two substantive revisions for gambling disorder (GD). These changes are the reduction in the threshold from five to four criteria and elimination of the illegal activities criterion. The purpose of this study was to twofold. First, to assess the reliability, validity and classification accuracy of the DSM-5 diagnostic criteria for GD. Second, to compare the DSM-5–DSM-IV on reliability, validity, and classification accuracy, including an examination of the effect of the elimination of the illegal acts criterion on diagnostic accuracy. To compare DSM-5 and DSM-IV, eight datasets from three different countries (Canada, USA, and Spain; total N = 3247) were used. All datasets were based on similar research methods. Participants were recruited from outpatient gambling treatment services to represent the group with a GD and from the community to represent the group without a GD. All participants were administered a standardized measure of diagnostic criteria. The DSM-5 yielded satisfactory reliability, validity and classification accuracy. In comparing the DSM-5 to the DSM-IV, most comparisons of reliability, validity and classification accuracy showed more similarities than differences. There was evidence of modest improvements in classification accuracy for DSM-5 over DSM-IV, particularly in reduction of false negative errors. This reduction in false negative errors was largely a function of lowering the cut score from five to four and this revision is an improvement over DSM-IV. From a statistical standpoint, eliminating the illegal acts criterion did not make a significant impact on diagnostic accuracy. From a clinical standpoint, illegal acts can still be addressed in the context of the DSM-5 criterion of lying to others.     

The pre-coronation passage of Elizabeth I: political theatre or the rehearsal of politics?

Cet article, une analyse du passage d'Elizabeth I avant son couronnement, cherche à adopter et à critiquer la métaphore comparant la politique au théâtre, telle que récemment utilisée par Geertz et autres spécialistes du symbolisme politique. Je veux montrer ici où et comment le passage pré-couronnement devient plus compréhensible, grâce à cette métaphore, mais aussi où celle-ci obscurcit sa signification. Je suggère, sur cette base, que la valeur analytique de la métaphore est améliorée quand la notion de 'répétition' prend le pas sur celle de 'représentation' (anthropologie symbolique, symbolisme politique, réciprocité, anthropologie historique).
This paper, a treatment of the pre-coronation passage of Elizabeth i, seeks to adopt and to criticize the 'politics as theatre' metaphor recently used by Geertz and other students of the symbolism of political affairs. I seek to show where and how the pre-coronation passage is illuminated by this metaphor, and where its significance is made obscure. It is suggested, on this basis, that the metaphor is improved as an analytic device when the notion of 'rehearsal' is emphasized over that of 'performance.'     

A Conversation on the Future of the Academy with James Turk, PhD, Executive Director, Canadian Association of University Teachers

Le thème de ce numéro spécial nous a fourni l'occasion d'engager une conversation avec James Turk, sociologue et directeur général de l'Association canadienne des professeures et professeurs d'université (ACPPU). L'entretien eut lieu a Ottawa en décembre 2001 et quelques precisions ont été apportées en avril 2002.
The special theme of this issue afforded us an opportunity to engage with Dr. James Turk, a sociologist who is currently the executive director of the Canadian Association of University Teachers (CAUT). This conversation was held in Ottawa in December 2001, with additional follow-up in April 2002.     

FAMILY CARERS: SOME IMPEDIMENTS TO EFFECTIVE POLICY AND SERVICE DEVELOPMENT

The shift to community care for people with disabilities in Australia has given rise to some recognition and acknowledgment, in both academic research and policy development, of the importance of their carers. However, information about government policy and services for carers is fragmented and limited. Our knowledge about the prevalence of caregiving and the socio-demographic characteristics of carers and their service needs, is inadequate. Studies in relation to carer use of and satisfaction with services tend to be small scale and focussed on a specific service or carer group. Carer views on broader mainstream service provision have received little attention. This paper identifies gaps in our knowledge as well as the practical and conceptual difficulties in documenting the range of services available and the relevant social policy. These difficulties are likely to reflect barriers to broad and effective policy and service development.