Can Registration-Based Sampling Improve the Accuracy of Midterm Election Forecasts?

We compare the predictive accuracy of preelection polls usingtwo types of sampling frames, random digit dialing (RDD) andregistration-based sampling (RBS). The latter involves stratifiedrandom sampling from voter registration lists. In order to assessthe accuracy with which RDD and RBS predict election outcomes,we collaborated with the Washington Post, Quinnipiac, and CBSNews polls, which conducted parallel RDD and RBS surveys inMaryland, New York, Pennsylvania, and South Dakota prior tothe November 5, 2002, elections. The results suggest that inthe gubernatorial and congressional elections studied, RBS performedas well, if not better, than RDD, both in terms of forecastingaccuracy and cost.     

A child welfare agency project: therapy for families of status offenders.

A pilot project providing therapy for families of status-offender youths has proved effective in reducing placements and costs.     

Three dimensions mental health professionals emphasize when judging levels of functioning of the severely mentally disabled in the community

Ratings of the level of functioning of severely disabled clients collected from staff of mental health agencies, while attractive as outcome measures, lack specificity and, at times, consistency. Three multidimensional scaling (MDS) studies were conducted to identify the dimensions staff emphasize when they compare clients as to their level of functioning. Analogues of clients were created to serve as stimuli, dissimilarity judgments of pairs of stimuli were collected, and an individual differences MDS model was applied in each study to distinguish client variance from the judges' perspectives. Ratings along specified dimensions also were collected and compared to the MDS solutions. One dimension emerged as pre-eminent, but it corresponded to many of the pre-selected dimensions, such as competence with daily living tasks, clarity of thinking, appearance and manner, and overall functioning. The other two dimensions were belligerence and openness to psychological intervention or distress with one's problems. Differences among judges were sizable; nevertheless, considerable support for emphasizing these three dimensions was found upon reviewing the contents of other assessments of functioning. Concentrating on these three dimensions of functioning may promote greater agreement among raters, highlight where functional improvements occur, and expand the coverage of functional differences without markedly increasing the costs of assessment.     

The Role of Local Development Organizations in Rural America*

Abstract Rural communities rely increasingly on local development organizations (LDOs) to promote economic development. The rise of LDOs has been the source of much debate. Using a national data set that links local governments with development organizations, we contrast the economic development activities, and their outcomes, of local governments and development organizations in rural America. We find that LDOs are involved in more economic development activities than are local governments. They are more successful at business recruitment and more effective at retention/expansion, both in number of firms and in jobs. The organizational networks of LDOs and local governments consistently influence their effectiveness. Finally, we examine the effects of an LDO's presence on the outcomes of business recruitment and of retention and expansion activities. The results suggest that the LDOs' success may be due in part to the networks in which they are embedded and to the amount of effort they make to promote growth.     

Discharge planning in foster care cases where the father is the significant parent.

In planning for the discharge from foster care of children in one-parent families, the potential of fathers is often neglected. An agency study indicates that intensive casework and adequate services can make the return to fathers appropriate.     

Containing and the patient's observation of the therapist's countertransference

Projective identification has received much attention for its ability to elucidate certain types of countertransference reactions. However, many severely disturbed patients are unable to benefit from the insight derived from interpretations based on projective identification. For many of these patients, the initial benefit of therapy is based on the containing provided by the therapist tolerating the countertransference rather than insight based on interpretation. Denis Carpy (1989) has written that the patient's observation of the therapist's tolerance of the countertransference helps to build psychic structure in the patient. In this article, the author reviews Carpy's position and then illustrates the value of the patient witnessing the therapist manage his countertransference using the case example of an adolescent in residential treatment.     

'I don't know what I'd do without our Mam' motherhood, identity and support networks

This paper explores the role and importance of kinship within the lives of 14 working class women as they seek to make sense of motherhood and their own self‐identity as a young mother. Within late modernity, numerous discourses suggest that kin networks and the role and importance of kinship are in decline as ‘the family’ changes and adapts. Indeed, the idea of extended family support and networking is frequently viewed as a historically cozy image rather than an everyday reality as we enter the twenty‐first century. However, this paper demonstrates that the situation is far from straightforward. The young mothers’ discourses and everyday experiences remain firmly grounded in relations of class, gender and the locality within which they live. Hence, although many of the young women are increasingly individualised, self‐reflexive actors seeking to make sense of intimate relations and kinship in an ontologically insecure world, kin networks, especially female kinship continue to play a pivotal role in their lives—practically, socially and emotionally. Indeed, female kinship is closely interwoven with their self‐identity as a caring and capable mother.     

探索建设社区生育文化的新路子

南京市鼓楼区的社区生育文化建设 ,在思路、体制和方法上创新 ,实施了优化人的发展环境 ,提高人的综合素质 ,提升人的生命价值三个工程 ,建成了有效的城市社区生育文化体系     

Disentangling the exposure experience: the roles of community context and report-back of environmental exposure data

This article examines participants' responses to receiving their results in a study of household exposure to endocrine disrupting compounds and other pollutants. The authors study how the "exposure experience"-the embodied, personal experience and understanding of chronic exposure to environmental pollutants-is shaped by community context and the report-back process itself. In addition, the authors investigate an activist, collective form of exposure experience. The authors analyze themes of expectations and learning, trust, and action. The findings reveal that while participants interpret scientific results to affirm lay knowledge of urban industrial toxics, they also absorb new information regarding other pollutant sources. By linking the public understanding of science literature to the illness and exposure experience concepts, this study unravels the complex relationship between lay experience and lay understanding of science. It also shows that to support policy development and/or social change, community-based participatory research efforts must attend to participants' understanding of science.