Resource Distribution in Multiple Attacks Against a Single Target

A target is protected by the defender and attacked by an attacker launching sequential attacks. For each attack, a contest intensity measures whether the agents’ efforts have low or high impact on the target vulnerability (low vs. high contest intensity). Both the defender and the attacker have limited resources. It is assumed that the attacker can observe the outcome of each attack and stop the sequence of attacks when the target is destroyed. Two attacker objectives are considered, that is, to maximize the target vulnerability or to minimize the expected attacker resource expenditure. The article addresses the following three questions: whether the attacker should allocate its entire resource into one large attack or distribute it among several attacks; whether geometrically increasing or decreasing resource distribution into a fixed number of sequential attacks is more beneficial than equal resource distribution; and how the optimal attack strategy depends on the contest intensity.     

Retrospective Change Point Detection: From Parametric to Distribution Free Policies

The literature displays change point detection problems in the context of one of the key issues that belong to testing statistical hypotheses. The main focus in this article is to review recent retrospective change point policies and propose new relevant procedures. Commonly, applied quality control purposes have declared statements of the change point problems. Various biostatistical and engineering applications cause consideration of an extended form of the change point problem. In this article, we consider parametric and distribution free generalized change point detection policies, attending to different contexts of optimality and robustness of the procedures. We conducted a broad Monte Carlo study to compare various parametric and nonparametric tests, also investigating a sensitivity of the change point detection policies with respect to assumptions required for correct executions of the procedures. An example based on real biomarker measurements is provided to judge our conclusions.     

E-journal Management Systems

Abstract

Electronic journals are being added to library collections at exponential rates. Recent developments in e-journal management systems offer libraries a variety of solutions for enhancing the visibility and flexibility of their electronic journals. This article examines and compares Serials Solutions, JournalWebCite, TDNet, and Serials Cybrarian, four current e-journal management programs that create and integrate multiple lists of journal titles, regardless of format, into a single list. These systems can reduce or even eliminate common serials control problems for librarians. Readers will gain insights that will enable them to better understand and consider the value of an e-journal management system. Serials Review 2002; 28:176–194.     

The effects of gainsharing on grievance rates and absenteeism over time

We sought to better understand the long-term impact of gainsharing by analyzing longitudinal changes in two key indicators of workplace union-management relations: grievance rates and employee absenteeism. Using a seven and one-half year longitudinal data set and an interrupted time series design, we found that the introduction of a Scanlon-type gainsharing plan was followed by a gradual and permanent decline in both of these indicators. These results provide strong quantitative evidence for the ability of gainsharing to transform existing labor-management relations. Using qualitative data, we consider the relationship between labor relations outcomes and other plant-level performance improvements following the introduction of gainsharing in this case.     

Commentary on “Measuring Constructed Preferences: Towards a Building Code” by Payne,Bettman and Schkade

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty -     

UK Government Communication: The Cameron years and their ongoing legacy

This paper chronicles in detail, analyses and draws conclusions about the development of the UK Government Communication Service (GCS) from the election of the Coalition Government led by David Cameron in May 2010, to his resignation following the referendum vote to leave the European Union (EU) on 23rd June 2016. Looking at the radical changes introduced within a historical context, the paper also provides a conceptual model of Government communication from the point where it became a recognisably government-wide service in 1956 to the period under examination.The methodological approach to this paper is qualitative using case study as the main method. A variety of data collection methods were used: ethnographic, including non-participant and participant observation, in-depth, semi-structured interviews with six senior managers in the Government Communication Service (GCS), five senior operational managers and two external experts. This primary research is supplemented by secondary sources including the academic literature and Government papers most of which are in the public domain, but some of which the author had privileged access to.Context is provided through an overview of the challenges facing the UK Government in the recent past and currently, a brief literature review and background on the philosophy and origins of Government Communication in the UK along with changes in the civil service more broadly. Then the structural and operational changes introduced During the Cameron years are presented. These changes, their impact and implications are discussed in context and conclusions drawn. A novel historiological, conceptual model of four chronological stages of UK Government communication presented and this, along with the detailed analysis of the Cameron years, is its original contribution.     

Circular balanced repeated measurements designs

The concept of a circular design is defined and when proper balance for various effects is assumed, its universal optimality is proved over the class of all designs with the same set of parameters, Such designs are shown to minimize the variance of the best linear unbiased estimators of contrasts of residual and direct effects over the class of equireplicated designs. All models assume first order residual effects and are of a circular nature. The proofs are presented in a unified manner for several models at a time. They are based on certain matrix domination which occurs when parameters are eliminated from a linear modelj this latter fact is proved for a general linear model.     

The structure of fuzzy preferences: Social choice implications

It has been shown that, with an alternative factorization of fuzzy weak preferences into symmetric and antisymmetric components, one can prove a fuzzy analogue of Arrow's Impossibility Theorem even when the transitivity requirements on individual and social preferences are very weak. It is demonstrated here that the use of this specification of strict preference, however, requires preferences to also be strongly connected. In the absence of strong connectedness, another factorization of fuzzy weak preferences is indicated, for which nondictatorial fuzzy aggregation rules satisfying the weak transitivity requirement can still be found. On the other hand, if strong connectedness is assumed, the fuzzy version of Arrow's Theorem still holds for a variety of weak preference factorizations, even if the transitivity condition is weakened to its absolute minimum. Since Arrow's Impossibility Theorem appeared nearly half a century ago, researchers have been attempting to avoid Arrow's negative result by relaxing various of his original assumptions. One approach has been to allow preferences – those of individuals and society or just those of society alone – to be “fuzzy.” In particular, Dutta [4] has shown that, to a limited extent, one can avoid the impossibility result (or, more precisely, the dictatorship result) by using fuzzy preferences, employing a particularly weak version of transitivity among the many plausible (but still distinct) definitions of transitivity that are available for fuzzy preferences. Another aspect of exact preferences for which the extension to the more general realm of fuzzy preferences is ambiguous is the factorization of a weak preference relation into a symmetric component (indifference) and an antisymmetric component (strict preference). There are several ways to do this for fuzzy weak preferences, all of them equivalent to the traditional factorization in the special case when preferences are exact, but quite different from each other when preferences are fuzzy (see, for example, [3]). A recent paper in this journal [1], by A. Banerjee, argues that the choice of definitions for indifference and strict preference, given a fuzzy weak preference, can also have “Arrovian” implications. In particular, [1] claims that Dutta's version of strict preference presents certain intuitive difficulties and recommends a different version, with its own axiomatic derivation, for which the dictatorship results reappear even with Dutta's weak version of transitivity. However, the conditions used to derive [1]'s version of strict preference imply a restriction on how fuzzy the original weak preference can be, namely, that the fuzzy weak preference relation must be strongly connected. Without this restriction, I will show that the rest of [1]'s conditions imply yet a third version of strict preference, for which Dutta's possibility result under weak transitivity still holds. On the other hand, if one accepts the strong connectedness required in order for it to be valid, I show that [1]'s dictatorship theorem can in fact be strengthened to cover any version of transitivity for fuzzy preferences, no matter how weak, and further, that this dictatorship result holds for any “regular” formulation of strict preference, including the one originally used by Dutta. Received: 13 May 1996 / Accepted: 13 January 1997     

Maintaining the exchangeability assumption for a two-group permutation test in the non-randomized setting

In this note, we develop a new two-group bootstrap-permutation test that utilizes the tail-extrapolated quantile function estimator for the bootstrap component. This test is an extension of the standard two-group permutation test, that through its construction is defined to meet the exchangeability assumption, and thus it guarantees that the type I error is appropriately bounded by definition. This methodology is particularly useful in the non-randomized two-group setting for which the exchangeability assumption for the traditional two-group permutation test is untestable. We develop some theoretical results for the new test, followed by a simulation study and an example.