Prediction intervals with a Dirichlet-process prior distribution

Let X₁, …,X_n, and Y₁, … Y_n be consecutive samples from a distribution function F which itself is randomly chosen according to the Ferguson (1973) Dirichlet-process prior distribution on the space of distribution functions. Typically, prediction intervals employ the observations X₁,…, X_n in the first sample in order to predict a specified function of the future sample Y₁, …, Y_n. Here one- and two-sided prediction intervals for at least q of N future observations are developed for the situation in which, in addition to the previous sample, there is prior information available. The information is specified via the parameter α of the Dirichlet process prior distribution.     

Behavioral epidemiology and social area analysis: The study of blackout looting

This article describes the use of social area analytic techniques in the study of the looting which occurred during the Con Edison power failure of July 13 and 14, 1977. Detailed procedures are outlined of the systematic collection and analysis of data which were developed from available data. Analyses contrasting competing explanatory theoretical models for blackout looting are presented. The central dependent variable is ratio of looted to retail stores. Both the numerator and denominator are aggregated to the census tract level.     

Love Poverty in Modern Culture and Sensitivity Training*

The social institutions of modern technological culture often fail to provide adequate opportunity for the exchange of emotions and personal feelings of affect and esteem. The widespread development of alternative institutions such as sensitivity training can be seen as an attempt to compensate for the scarcity of this type of interpersonal communication. Reasons for this scarcity are examined in terms of a structural model of individual and societal resource differentiation.     

The encounter with family violence and risky sexual activity among young adolescent females

In this article, we analyze the relationship between family violence and risky sexual activity for female adolescents (age 14 to 17). We examine two forms of family violence: experience (receiving physical abuse from a parent or parent-figure) and exposure (witnessing interparental physical violence). We hypothesize that either form of violence will predict greater odds of engaging in risky sexual behavior. We define risky sexual activity as any of the following: having multiple partners within the last 12 months or having sex with partners who are themselves engaging in risky behavior (e.g., having multiple partners of either sex, injecting unprescribed drugs, sharing unprescribed needles for injecting drugs). We analyzed data from 710 respondents taken from the National Survey of Family Growth, Cycle V, living with at least one biological parent. Results showed that experiencing violence from a parent greatly increased the likelihood of risky sex, even when controlling for the experience of forced sex, age, mother's age at first birth, race, socioeconomic status, and religiosity. Female adolescents who had experienced forced sex, those who were older (especially 17-year-olds), non-Hispanic Blacks (but not Hispanics), those living in a family with low educational attainment (less than a high school diploma), and those for whom religion was not or only somewhat personally important were more likely to report risky sex compared to others. These effects were not modified by whether the respondents lived in single- or two-parent families. An interaction between the two forms of physical violence suggests that either form is sufficient to increase significantly the odds of risky sex; an analysis in which respondents were differentiated by their experience of either form of violence showed a strong effect of experience on risky sex, net of the control variables.     

Safety Risk Analysis of an Innovative Environmental Technology

The authors describe a decision and risk analysis performed for the cleanup of a large Department of Energy mixed-waste subsurface disposal area governed by the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). In a previous study, the authors worked with the site decision makers, state regulators, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regional regulators to develop a CERCLA-based multiobjective decision analysis value model and used the model to perform a screening analysis of 28 remedial alternatives. The analysis results identified an innovative technology, in situ vitrification, with high effectiveness versus cost. Since this technology had not been used on this scale before, the major uncertainties were contaminant migration and pressure buildup. Pressure buildup was a safety concern due to the potential risks to worker safety. With the help of environmental technology experts remedial alternative changes were identified to mitigate the concerns about contaminant migration and pressure buildup. The analysis results showed that the probability of an event with a risk to worker safety had been significantly reduced. Based on these results, site decision makers have refocused their test program to examine in situ vitrification and have continued the use of the CERCLA-based decision analysis methodology to analyze remedial alternatives.     

Charitable Giving as a Luxury Good and the Philanthropic Sphere of Influence

Using regression analysis, 41 years of charitable giving and income data was evaluated to determine if charitable giving is a luxury, normal, or inferior good, and to determine the income elasticity for separate nonprofit sectors. Total Giving to the nonprofit subsector as well as most nonprofit sectors (Religion, Education, Human Services, and Environment) is a normal good, while Arts and International giving are likely luxury goods. However, evidence suggests that Health and Public Benefit are likely inferior goods. This research makes three contributions. First, it offers quantitative data as evidence in the supply-side and demand-side debates. Second, owing to income elasticities, researchers propose the Philanthropic Sphere of Influence and postulate that as incomes rise, donors are more likely to give to causes from which they are less likely to personally benefit. Third, by evaluating charitable giving as a whole and then by each subsector, the research demonstrates that each nonprofit subsector responds uniquely to changes in income. Therefore, nonprofit sectors should be evaluated separately.     

The role of organizational leaders in employee emotion management: A theoretical model

The actions of organizational leaders are important determinants of the emergence, management, and consequences of employee emotional experience. However, the nature and dimensionality of leader emotion management and the behaviors that constitute such management are largely unknown. The authors present a comprehensive, theoretically-derived model of leader emotion management which clarifies the nature of emotion management and its role in leadership. This model also delineates the knowledge and skill-based antecedents of emotion management and the consequences of such management. Specifically, we propose linkages between particular KSAOs and specific emotion management dimensions and between those dimensions and particular individual and organizational outcomes. The model is meant to serve as a framework to guide empirical efforts in investigating the nature and correlates of leader emotion management.     

Optimal life-cycle fertility in a Barro-Becker economy

Parenthood postponement is a key demographic trend of the last three decades. In order to rationalize that stylized fact, we extend the canonical model by Barro and Becker (Econometrica 57:481–501, 1989) to include two—instead of one—reproduction periods. We examine how the cost structure of early and late children in terms of time and goods affects the optimal fertility timing. Then, we identify conditions that guarantee the existence and uniqueness of a stationary equilibrium with a stationary cohort size. Finally, we examine how the model can rationalize the observed postponement of births, and we highlight two plausible causes: (1) a general rise in the cost of children in terms of goods and (2) a decline in the degree of family altruism.