Intertemporal choice under timing risk: An experimental approach

This paper investigates how individuals evaluate delayed outcomes with risky realization times. Under the discounted expected utility (DEU) model, such evaluations depend only on intertemporal preferences. We obtain several testable hypotheses using the DEU model as a benchmark and test these hypotheses in three experiments. In general, our results show that the DEU model is a poor predictor of intertemporal choice behavior under timing risk. We found that individuals are averse to timing risk and that they evaluate timing lotteries in a rank-dependent fashion. The main driver of timing risk aversion is nothing but probabilistic risk aversion that stems from the nonlinear treatment of probabilities.     

美国与日本战争赔偿方式的演变

战后日本战争赔偿方式在美国的控制下先后经历了从实物赔偿到劳务赔偿再到资本赔偿的变迁。随着对东南亚的赔偿最终被纳入美国东亚遏制政策的轨道 ,日本得以将惩罚性的战争赔偿转变为一种有效的经济外交手段     

论《周易》中圣人崇拜思想及影响

《周易》的圣人崇拜思想 ,既有积极作用 ,更多的是消极作用 ,必须在新时代加以转换     

论跨越式发展

中国正在工业化过程中和现代化初期,经济发展有着广阔的空间;中国共产党的领导和先进的社会主义制度.是实现跨越式发展的最根本的保证;20多年的改革开放为实现跨越式发展奠定了坚实的物质基础;科学技术迅猛发展,为跨越式发展提供了便利的条件。这就要求我们大力推进科技进步和创新,全面提高全民族的素质。深化改革,不断调动各方面的积极性,培养和造就一支适应知识经济时代的科技人才队伍,以实现生产力的跨越式发展。     

Beheimatungsprozesse begleiten — ein Werkstattbericht

Supporting processes of belonging in supervision and coachingThe contemporary employee has to cope with frequent changes. Not only does he lose his familiar environment, he also has to find ways to familiarize himself with new places and to develop a fresh sense of belonging. This process can be understood and facilitated by interpreting the German concept of “Heimat“ as something we have to create ourselves. First experiences demonstrate the usefulness of this approach in coaching processes.     

Expected sample moments of concomitants of selected order statistics

In this paper, the task of determining expected values of sample moments, where the sample members have been selected based on noisy information, is considered. This task is a recurring problem in the theory of evolution strategies. Exact expressions for expected values of sums of products of concomitants of selected order statistics are derived. Then, using Edgeworth and Cornish-Fisher approximations, explicit results that depend on coefficients that can be determined numerically are obtained. While the results are exact only for normal populations, it is shown experimentally that including skewness and kurtosis in the calculations can yield greatly improved results for other distributions.     

AIDS as a political issue: working with the sexually prostituted in the Philippines

An estimated 200,000-500,000 men, women, and children work in prostitution in the Philippines in a variety of venues, including brothels, nightclubs, pubs, massage parlors, and other legitimate entertainment establishments. Few, however, are voluntary prostitutes. Many people who work as prostitutes have been recruited from the provinces, kept in conditions similar to slavery, and forced to earn money from prostitution to pay for their transportation, board, and lodging. Many prostitutes work in urban centers and tourist resorts in the countryside. During the 1970s, then President Ferdinand Marcos promoted tourism as a major industry, effectively marketing attractive Filipinas to tourists. Sex tourism has flourished in the country ever since. Thousands of prostitutes are also located in Olongapo and Angeles, 2 cities north of Manila, from where they serve the sexual desires of US military personnel. The presence of US military personnel in the Philippines has always been associated with prostitution. The country's social hygiene centers, prostitutes in Manila and Davao, and AIDS education are briefly discussed.     

A time series model for cohort data

A univariate time-series model is presented for projecting age- or duration-specific data for recent cohorts. The model is also capable of taking period effects into account, is illustrated using Dutch data on marital fertility rates.     

The Seveso Directive: An Italian Pilot Study in Enabling Communication

In 1982 the Council of the European Communities issued a Directive on the Major Accident Hazards of Certain Industrial Activities, commonly known as the Seveso Directive. Besides other requirements, the Directive specifies that members of the public liable to be affected by a major accident from certain industrial activities must be informed of safety measures and how they should behave in the event of an accident. The Directive was subsequently amended in an extensive way. Upon the transposition of the Seveso Directive and its amendments into national legislations, the 12 European Member States are faced with the task of "appropriately and effectively" informing the public about major accident hazards. Delays are observed throughout the community, both in transposing the Directives and implementing public information. A pilot study on "Risk Information Needs" was commissioned and carried out at two Seveso sites in Italy in order to begin to resolve some of the problems involved in the provision of public information and to suggest appropriate guidelines. One hundred subjects answered an experimental protocol designed to assess their "information needs." This article presents the theoretical background, the pragmatic aims, and the design of the study. It also summarizes its most relevant findings and suggests some recommendations for the provision of information to the public.     

Going to Pieces: Paul Monette and the Fragments of the Tribe

Author of the highly acclaimed Borrowed Time: An AIDS Memoir (1988) and winner of the 1992 National Book Award for his autobiography Becoming a Man: Half a Life Story, Paul Monette died of complications from AIDS in Los Angeles on February 12, 1995. His most recent work, Last Watch of the Night: Essays Too Personal and Otherwise (1994), is his third volume in a trilogy of autobiographical writing on growing up gay, coming-out, and living with AIDS. A graduate of Phillips Academy and Yale University, Monette received a number of awards for his writing and his work as an outspoken voice in the battle against AIDS, including the National Book Award, three Lambda Literary awards, the PEN Center West Freedom to Write Award, and three honorary doctorate degrees, from Wesleyan University, the City University of New York, and the State University of New York at Oswego. A memorial service was held for Monette on Sunday, February 19, 1995, at the Directors Guild of America on Sunset Boulevard in Los Angeles. Paul Monette was 49.