Up in the Skies? The Relationship between Body Height and Earnings in Germany

Abstract. This paper analyses whether taller workers earn more than their shorter counterparts. Using GSOEP data from 1991 to 2002, earnings functions are estimated for male and female workers for both West and East Germany. The Hausman–Taylor IV estimator is applied to account for unobservable heterogeneity including also time‐invariant indicators. The results do not imply wage differentials based on height for female workers and male East German workers. For the height range up to 195 cm there is, however, a wage premium associated with stature for male workers from West Germany of about 4 per cent for each additional standard deviation increment in height.     

Motivating job design as a factor in open source governance

Successful open source software (OSS) projects can be considered as examples of how ambitious work results can be achieved in web-based collaboration even when monetary incentives are low or absent. While former explorations of motivational processes in OSS projects primarily focused on person-oriented aspects such as motives, interests, and expected benefits of contributors, job-related factors have been largely neglected. After discussing the limitations of a person-oriented focus, a research perspective is suggested that concentrates on job design and work context in OSS based on frameworks from work psychology. A theoretical analysis is presented discussing job characteristics of successful OSS projects as potential explanations of the high motivation of OSS contributors. Compared to a person-oriented perspective, the results of a job-oriented approach might be better transferable to other projects (both OSS and “closed source” software development) and provide guidelines for the governance of successful web-based collaboration.

Bayesian clustering for row effects models

We deal with two-way contingency tables having ordered column categories. We use a row effects model wherein each interaction term is assumed to have a multiplicative form involving a row effect parameter and a fixed column score. We propose a methodology to cluster row effects in order to simplify the interaction structure and to enhance the interpretation of the model. Our method uses a product partition model with a suitable specification of the cohesion function, so that we can carry out our analysis on a collection of models of varying dimensions using a straightforward MCMC sampler. The methodology is illustrated with reference to simulated and real data sets.     

Adaptive confidence intervals of desired length and power for normal means

In all empirical or experimental sciences, it is a standard approach to present results, additionally to point estimates, in form of confidence intervals on the parameters of interest. The length of a confidence interval characterizes the accuracy of the whole findings. Consequently, confidence intervals should be constructed to hold a desired length. Basic ideas go back to Stein (1945) and Seelbinder (1953) who proposed a two-stage procedure for hypothesis testing about a normal mean. Tukey (1953) additionally considered the probability or power a confidence interval should possess to hold its length within a desired boundary. In this paper, an adaptive multi-stage approach is presented that can be considered as an extension of Stein's concept. Concrete rules for sample size updating are provided. Following an adaptive two-stage design of O’Brien and Fleming (1979) type, a real data example is worked out in detail.     

WHY IS FISCAL POLICY OFTEN PROCYCLICAL?

Fiscal policy is procyclical in many developing countries. We explain this policy failure with a political agency problem. Procyclicality is driven by voters who seek to “starve the Leviathan” to reduce political rents. Voters observe the state of the economy but not the rents appropriated by corrupt governments. When they observe a boom, voters optimally demand more public goods or lower taxes, and this induces a procyclical bias in fiscal policy. The empirical evidence is consistent with this explanation: Procyclicality of fiscal policy is more pronounced in more corrupt democracies. (JEL: E62, D73, D78)     

Identification and Inference in Nonlinear Difference‐in‐Differences Models

This paper develops a generalization of the widely used difference‐in‐differences method for evaluating the effects of policy changes. We propose a model that allows the control and treatment groups to have different average benefits from the treatment. The assumptions of the proposed model are invariant to the scaling of the outcome. We provide conditions under which the model is nonparametrically identified and propose an estimator that can be applied using either repeated cross section or panel data. Our approach provides an estimate of the entire counterfactual distribution of outcomes that would have been experienced by the treatment group in the absence of the treatment and likewise for the untreated group in the presence of the treatment. Thus, it enables the evaluation of policy interventions according to criteria such as a mean–variance trade‐off. We also propose methods for inference, showing that our estimator for the average treatment effect is root‐N consistent and asymptotically normal. We consider extensions to allow for covariates, discrete dependent variables, and multiple groups and time periods.     

BETWEEN BROADCASTING POLITICAL MESSAGES AND INTERACTING WITH VOTERS

Politicians across Western democracies are increasingly adopting and experimenting with Twitter, particularly during election time. The purpose of this article is to investigate how candidates are using it during an election campaign. The aim is to create a typology of the various ways in which candidates behaved on Twitter. Our research, which included a content analysis of tweets (n?=?26,282) from all twittering Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat candidates (n?=?416) during the 2010 UK General Election campaign, focused on four aspects of tweets: type, interaction, function and topic. By examining candidates' twittering behaviour, the authors show that British politicians mainly used Twitter as a unidirectional form of communication. However, there were a group of candidates who used it to interact with voters by, for example, mobilizing, helping and consulting them, thus tapping into the potential Twitter offers for facilitating a closer relationship with citizens.     

Decentralized Trading With Private Information

The paper studies how asset prices are determined in a decentralized market with asymmetric information about asset values. We consider an economy in which a large number of agents trade two assets in bilateral meetings. A fraction of the agents has private information about the asset values. We show that, over time, uninformed agents can elicit information from their trading partners by making small offers. This form of experimentation allows the uninformed agents to acquire information as long as there are potential gains from trade in the economy. As a consequence, the economy converges to a Pareto efficient allocation.     

Economic Swings and Demographic Changes in the History of Latin America

In this paper we study the effects of short-term fluctuations in indicators of economic well-being on selected demographic response such as births, marriages and deaths at age intervals in eleven Latin American countries between 1910 and 1990. We use conventional distributed lag models to assess the magnitude and direction of effects and test a variety of hypotheses some of which have been posed to hold in Western Europe and others that are more specific and tailored to the Latin American context. We also compare the magnitude and direction of effects obtained among these countries with those obtained for pre-industrial Europe and uncover the existence of broadly similar patterns.