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51.
It is common in regression discontinuity analysis to control for third, fourth, or higher-degree polynomials of the forcing variable. There appears to be a perception that such methods are theoretically justified, even though they can lead to evidently nonsensical results. We argue that controlling for global high-order polynomials in regression discontinuity analysis is a flawed approach with three major problems: it leads to noisy estimates, sensitivity to the degree of the polynomial, and poor coverage of confidence intervals. We recommend researchers instead use estimators based on local linear or quadratic polynomials or other smooth functions. 相似文献
52.
The application of an ISO standard procedure (Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM)) is here discussed to quantify uncertainty in human risk estimation under chronic exposure to hazardous chemical compounds. The procedure was previously applied to a simple model; in this article a much more complex model is used, i.e., multiple compound and multiple exposure pathways. Risk was evaluated using the usual methodologies: the deterministic reasonable maximum exposure (RME) and the statistical Monte Carlo method. In both cases, the procedures to evaluate uncertainty on risk values are detailed. Uncertainties were evaluated by different methodologies to account for the peculiarity of information about the single variable. The GUM procedure enables the ranking of variables by their contribution to uncertainty; it provides a criterion for choosing variables for deeper analysis. The obtained results show that the application of GUM procedure is easy and straightforward to quantify uncertainty and variability of risk estimation. Health risk estimation is based on literature data on a water table contaminated by three volatile organic compounds. Daily intake was considered by either ingestion of water or inhalation during showering. The results indicate one of the substances as the main contaminant, and give a criterion to identify the key component on which the treatment selection may be performed and the treatment process may be designed in order to reduce risk. 相似文献
53.
Do smart parents raise smart children? The intergenerational transmission of cognitive abilities 总被引:4,自引:4,他引:0
Complementing prior research on income and educational mobility, we examine the intergenerational transmission of cognitive
abilities. We find that individuals’ cognitive skills are positively related to their parents’ abilities, despite controlling
for educational attainment and family background. Differentiating between mothers’ and fathers’ IQ transmission, we find different
effects on the cognition of sons and daughters. Cognitive skills that are based on past learning are more strongly transmitted
between generations than skills that are related to innate abilities. Our findings are not compatible with a pure genetic
model but rather point to the importance of parental investments for children’s cognitive outcomes. 相似文献
54.
Yuri Goegebeur Paul De Boeck Geert Molenberghs Guido del Pino 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C, Applied statistics》2006,55(5):647-676
Summary. An item response theory model for dealing with omitted responses in a test is proposed. In this model formulation, non-response does not only depend on an examinee's ability and on item difficulty, but additionally also on 'test speededness'. Using a local-influence-based diagnostic approach, the sensitivity of the model regarding assumptions concerning the drop-out mechanism is explored. The methodology proposed is applied to the Chilean Sistema de Medición de la Calidad de la Educación mathematics test case-study. 相似文献
55.
Robin Hartwig Karl Inderfurth Abdolkarim Sadrieh Guido Voigt 《Production and Operations Management》2015,24(8):1329-1345
Based on a serial supply chain model with two periods and price‐sensitive demand, we present the first experimental test of the effect of strategic inventories on supply chain performance. In theory, if holding costs are sufficiently low, the buyer builds up a strategic inventory (even if no operational reasons for stock‐holding exist) to limit the supplier's market power, and to increase the own profit share. As it turns out, this enhances the overall supply chain performance. The supplier anticipates the effect of the strategic inventory and differentiates prices to capture a part of the increased supply chain profits. Our results show that the positive effects of strategic inventories are even more pronounced than theoretically predicted, because strategic inventories empower buyers by shifting the perception of the fair split. Overall, strategic inventories have a double positive effect, a strategic and a behavioral, both reducing the average wholesale prices and dampening the double marginalization effect. The latter effect leads to more equitable payoffs. 相似文献
56.
57.
Guido A. Rossi 《Theory and Decision》1994,36(3):257-275
We present some interesting features of de Finetti's decision theory; then we extended the theory. The extended theory has a normative character and is of the expected utility kind, but it is also very adaptable. By comparing it with some leading theories, we find that our theory is compatible with consideration of the whole probability distribution — it can even accommodate Allais' paradox -, while it is not generally compatible with probability weighting. We are mainly interested in the normative point of view. 相似文献
58.
Fernando A. Broner Guido Lorenzoni Sergio L. Schmukler 《Journal of the European Economic Association》2013,11(Z1):67-100
We argue that one reason why emerging economies borrow short term is that it is cheaper than borrowing long term. This is especially the case during crises, as during these episodes the relative cost of long‐term borrowing increases. We construct a unique database of sovereign bond prices, returns, and issuances at different maturities for 11 emerging economies from 1990 to 2009 and present a set of new stylized facts. On average, these countries pay a higher risk premium on long‐term than on short‐term bonds. During crises, the difference between the two risk premia increases and issuance shifts towards shorter maturities. To illustrate our argument, we present a simple model in which the maturity structure is the outcome of a risk‐sharing problem between an emerging economy subject to rollover crises and risk‐averse international investors. 相似文献
59.
60.
A simple algorithm is introduced for computing the run length distribution of a monitoring scheme combining a Shewhart chart
with an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average control chart. The algorithm is based on the numerical approximation of the
integral equations and integral recurrence relations related to the run-length distribution. In particular, a Clenshaw-Curtis
product-integration rule is applied for handling discontinuities in the integrand function due to the simultaneous use of
the two control schemes. The proposed algorithm, implemented in R and publicy available, compares favourably with the Markov
chain approach originally used to approximate the run length properties of the combined Shewhart-EWMA. 相似文献