Signaling strength? An analysis of decision making in <Emphasis Type="Italic">The Weakest Link</Emphasis>

We analyze contestants’ behavior in the game show “The Weakest Link”. We focus on banking decisions, where a contestant chooses to secure an amount of money for the eventual winner, or to risk it on a general knowledge question. We find that contestants do not use the banking strategy that maximizes total expected prize money. Average earnings could be at least 17% higher. Our results suggest that contestants are not overconfident, but do try to convince other contestants that their ability is higher than it really is, in order to increase chances of winning the prize. We argue that this mechanism may also be applicable to other situations that are of economic interest.     

Employment success of social assistance recipients: A provincial analysis by industry

Poverty continues to burden millions of Canadians each year, and social assistance (SA) is one program that provides last-resort financial assistance, conditional upon looking for and accepting work. Using tax panel data of SA recipients from across seven Canadian regions between 2000 and 2018, we model the probabilities of employment success (ES) across industry of employment, SA benefit amounts, unionization, and individual-level characteristics. We adopt an economic stance to explain reliance upon SA, examining the broader macroeconomic indicators of ES, and to demonstrate the factors associated with exiting SA. We find that many SA recipients do not present evidence of recent employment, indicating a disconnect between stated SA program aims and their outcomes. We provide evidence for increased SA benefits and unionization as significant predictors of ES of SA recipients.     

Migration and immigration: recent advances using linked administrative data

Journal of Population Research -     

A test procedure for detecting super-heavy tails

The aim of this work is to develop a test to distinguish between heavy and super-heavy tailed probability distributions. These classes of distributions are relevant in areas such as telecommunications and insurance risk, among others. By heavy tailed distributions we mean probability distribution functions with polynomially decreasing upper tails (regularly varying tails). The term super-heavy is reserved for right tails decreasing to zero at a slower rate, such as logarithmic, or worse (slowly varying tails). Simulations are presented for several models and an application with telecommunications data is provided.     

Measuring Health: A Multivariate Approach

We examined the health status of 171 countries by employing factor analysis on various national health indicators for the period 2000–2005 to construct two new measures on health. The first measure is based on the health of individuals and the second on (the quality of) the health services. Our measures differ substantially from indicators used in previous studies on health and also lead to different rankings of countries. As rankings are not that informative without further information, we analyzed the distance between each country and the sample mean. Differences between countries are much more pronounced for our measure on health services than for our measure on the health of individuals. Using cluster analysis, we classified the countries in six homogenous groups.     

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Political Regime and Human Capital: A Cross-Country Analysis

We examine the relationship between different dimensions of the political regime in place and human capital using a two-step structural equation model. In the first step, we employ factor analysis on 16 human capital indicators to construct two new human capital measures (basic and advanced human capital). In the second step, we estimate the impact of our political variables on human capital, using a cross-sectional structural model for some 100 countries. We conclude that democracy is positively related to basic human capital, while regime instability has a negative link with basic human capital. Governance has a positive relationship with advanced human capital, while government instability has a negative link with advanced human capital. Finally, we also find an indirect positive effect of governance and democracy on both types of human capital through their effect on income.     

The return migration patterns of Canadian seniors: insights from the 1991 cancer cohort study

Journal of Population Research - Roughly one-fifth of all Canadians leave their birth province, usually as young adults, to seek opportunities in other parts of the country (or beyond, although we...     

Adolescent and adult alcohol attitudes in a high alcohol consumption community

The study examines alcohol-related attitudes among adolescents and adults in a high consumption community, exploring whether adolescents and adults hold similar or different views regarding adolescent drinking. Data were gathered from adults in a Midwestern city via random telephone survey of 487 adults (30% with children under the age of 21). Students in grades 6-12 (n = 558) also completed a youth version of the survey in classrooms. Results indicated that becoming a parent was associated with more restrictive attitudes about adolescent alcohol use, regardless of the age of their children. Adolescents aged 14 to 17 had the least restrictive attitudes. Adults aged 18 to 24 (who were not parents) reported values similar to older adolescents. Younger adolescents, while similar to older adolescents in perception of community alcohol problems, were more like parents and older adults in attitudes about adolescent drinking. Both adolescents and adults greatly overestimated actual amounts of community adolescent binge drinking.