Modernization and the Demographic Transition: Cross-Sectional and Longitudinal Analyses of a Revised Model

Abstract

We specify a revised model of the demographic transition which accounts for national fertility levels and changes over the past two decades. The model includes cultural, geographic, demographic and family planning program variables, in addition to a measure of national socio-economic modernization. Using crude birth rates for 117 countries, we operationalize and then apply the revised model to 1974 rates, and then test a longitudinal model of 1955–59 to 1974 change in rates. A final model for 81 less developed nations from the original set of 117 countries includes a measure of family planning program effort. Including this highly significant measure in a model of 1955–59 to 1974 change results in further evidence favoring modification of the traditional demographic transition model. Implications for the future course of fertility in underdeveloped countries are discussed.     

Building cultural competence: A systematic evaluation of the effectiveness of culturally sensitive interventions with ethnic minority youth

Growing diversity within the US population accentuates the need for the development and implementation of culturally competent services in the field of child welfare. Despite this, few studies exist that examine the effectiveness of culturally sensitive interventions (CSIs) with ethnic minority populations, who are considerably more at risk of developing psychosocial problems including substance and alcohol abuse, delinquency, low academic achievement, and poor self-esteem. With the demand for evidence-based practice it is imperative that we examine the effectiveness of CSIs designed to prevent and treat youth problems. The main goal of this review was to systematically analyze the methodology of recent CSI research with populations of ethnic minority youth in order to evaluate each intervention's ability to adhere to existing standards of evidence-based practice. The fifteen CSI studies examined in this review illustrate progress in their attempt to adhere to the methodological rigor required of evidence-based practice. This review encourages the field of child welfare to position itself analogously with and embrace the movement toward building cultural competence by further investigating the effectiveness of culturally-sensitive interventions with ethnic minority youth.     

Embedded cultural values and international transaction cost advantages

Culturally embedded differences in self-interested behavior and perceptions of trust violate the universal assumption of moral hazard held by transaction cost economic theorists. A model of transaction cost advantage is derived and propositions developed using the cultural value diversity literature to test the universal assumptions of transaction cost economics.     

Determinants of fertility levels and change among developed countries: 1958–1978

This article provides a multivariate cross-national test of the hypothesis that national population/family planning policies have effected levels, and changes in fertility in developed nations over the past two decades. Variation is assessed in the total fertility rates (TFR) in 1978, and in the change in these rates between 1958 and 1978, among thirty developed countries. Measures include socioeconomic development, divorce, percent in consensual unions, female labor force participation, abortion policy, and level of contraceptive use by married couples and, government population/family planning policy. Seventy percent of the variation in 1978 TFR is related to the percent contracepting, female labor force, and the population/family planning policy measures. These are the only measures with significant direct effects. A longitudinal analysis of 1958 to 1978 change in TFRs is also conducted. This model increases R² to 75%, and the three independent variables remain significant. Implications of these findings for policy makers interested in increasing or decreasing fertility rates are noted.     

Institutional Shifts In Inter-Municipal Service Delivery

Comparative research on inter-municipal cooperation in eight European countries shows that there is a great variety of institutional arrangements for cooperation across the different countries. Also, these arrangements tend to change over time in terms of the scope of cooperation among partners, their composition and the degree of organizational integration. This article describes and analyzes the variety of and shifts in institutional arrangements for a specific class of inter-municipal cooperation arrangements: those that are set up to provide for the joint delivery of public services. It is argued that specific arrangements are typically the outcomes of interaction between national institutional contexts, environmental factors and local preferences.     

The effect of probing on deceivers and truthtellers

This study examined the effect of probing for additional information on the accuracy of deception detection. One hundred forty-eight experimental interactions were analyzed to see whether deceivers and truthtellers behave differently when probed and whether probing improved deception detection. Probing produced a number of changes in nonverbal behavior, several of which differed between deceivers and truthtellers. Probing may have communicated suspicion or uncertainty; therefore, deceptive sources were motivated to control their nonverbal demeanor to mask deception-related cues and appear truthful. Probing did not improve detection. Instead, probing receivers considered all sources more truthful. It is suggested that suspiciousness and prior knowledge may affect probing's efficacy.