Computer simulation of adult sentencing proposals

Several legislative proposals have been introduced in the State of Washington which would alter sentencing procedures for adults convicted of felonies. A major policy concern is the degree to which such new legislation would impact population levels in an already overcrowded prison system. The Sentencing Alternatives Impact Simulation Project developed a series of computer simulation programs to model the sentencing proposals. Results of the simulations were made available to the Legislature and to planners for Adult Corrections. This article describes the major model developed, the data required to run it, and the results obtained from it under a variety of hypothetical conditions. It includes a discussion of the level of utilization made of the results, and some comments on the requirements for maximizing utilization in future simulation projects.     

The Community Readiness Survey. Development and initial validation

This article reports on the development and evaluation of a mail survey measuring population attitudes toward substance use of potential receptivity of communities to different prevention efforts. The Community Readiness Survey was designed through a series of prevention practitioner and consultant meetings and focus groups. Psychometric evaluation revealed five distinct domains: perception of alcohol, tobacco, or other drug problem; support for prevention; permissive attitudes toward teen substance use; perception of adolescent access; and perception of community commitment. Evidence of construct validity was demonstrated by the small but significant relationships between selected scale scores and community readiness as evaluated by prevention planners.     

Persistence of a fig wasp population and evolution of dioecy in figs: a simulation study

The relationship between fig trees and their pollinator wasps is a well-known example of species-specific obligate mutualism. In this article we present a stochastic model of this mutualistic system, referring to data on a dioecious fig (Ficus schwarzii) in Borneo, and examine the conditions for the persistence of a wasp population for a given period. (1) When the average duration of the flowering interval of fig trees is short, even a small fig population can sustain a wasp population successfully. A population whose average period of flowering cycle is half that of another population can sustain a wasp population with a number of trees less than half of the other population. (2) The wasp survival rate (WSR) is higher when (a) the variation of the interval periods of fig flowering is smaller, (b) the fig population size is larger, and (c) figs can prolong their receptivity to wait for a wasp if no wasps are available. (3) WSR is predictable from the average proportion of the fig's receptive phases, in which wasps are available, to their total receptive phases. (4) The persistence period of a wasp population increases exponentially with the number of fig trees. Based on these results we propose a new hypothesis, as a possible scenario, on the evolution of dioecy from monoecy in Ficus. Received: November 13, 1998 / Accepted: July 14, 1999     

The meaning of gender while aging with paralytic polio

The purpose of this article is to report the influence of gender on aging with childhood onset paralytic polio. The hermeneutic phenomenological exploration of gender was done using multiple qualitative interviews with 25 women, age 55 to 75 years of age, who had polio since before 14 years of age. We noted three themes: (a) the movement of her body, (b) integrating body and gender, and (c) gender discrepancies. Findings are discussed in the context of gendered expectations and the women's bodies.     

Continuous Parenting and the Clean Break: The Aftermath of Marriage Breakdown

This paper examines the financial disparity between men and women after marriage breakdown in the context of the debate about public support for children and their caretakers. The Australian Institute of Family Studies research into the economic consequences of marriage breakdown, the government's endorsement of reforms for the assessment and collection of child maintenance and the Law Reform Commission's recommendations for the reform of matrimonial property law indicate the need for more clarity and predictability for family law clients. In addition, empirical work highlights the need to eradicate any notion that the clean break philosophy is appropriate for parenting after separation. Whilst family law reforms are already underway in this area, the issues of womens' independence and of child welfare must be looked at in the broader context of employment opportunities and child care.     

Estimation and forecasting hospital admissions due to Influenza: Planning for winter pressure. The case of the West Midlands, UK

Winters are a difficult period for the National Health Service (NHS) in the United Kingdom (UK), due to the combination of cold weather and the increased likelihood of respiratory infections, especially influenza. In this article we present a proper statistical time series approach for modelling and analysing weekly hospital admissions in the West Midlands in the UK during the period week 15/1990 to week 14/1999. We consider three variables, namely, hospital admissions, general practitioner consultants, and minimum temperature. The autocorrelations of each series are shown to decay hyperbolically. The correlations of hospital admission and the lag of other series also decay hyperbolically but with different speed and directions. One of the main objectives of this paper is to show that each of the three series can be represented by a Fractional Differenced Autoregressive integrated moving average model, (FDA). Further, the hospital admission winter and summer residuals shows significant interdependency, which may be interpreted as hidden periodicities within the last 10-years time interval. The short-range (8 weeks) forecasting of hospital admission of the FDA model and a fourth-order AutoRegressive AR(4) model are quite similar. However, our results reveal that the long-range forecasting of FDA is more realistic. This implies that, using the FDA approach, the respective authority can plan for winter pressure properly.     

Gender differences in the initiation and attribution of tactile intimacy

Cultural norms may restrict the demonstration of intimacy between men, such that male adults are relatively unlikely (in comparison to females) to display affection in public by hugging or putting hands around one another's waists. Study 1 examined via a role playing technique how the gender composition of a dyad and types of friendship influence tactile greetings. Males displayed less physical intimacy with male friends than with female (platonic or dating) friends and less than females displayed with their same-sex friends. Study 2 examined subjects' perceptions of and attributions about reciprocal touch. Male-male behavior was rated as less normal as a function of the level of physical touch (going from no touch, hugging, to arms around the waist). The normalcy rating of opposite-sex pairs did not vary as a function of the touch manipulation, but female, same-sex pairs' behavior was rated as less normal in the arms around the waist than in either the no touch or hug conditions. In the male same-sex pairs, hugging was seen as more likely to reflect a sexual relationship than no touch, while arms around one another's waist was rated as even more likely to represent a sexual relationship. It was suggested that homophobia, the fear of appearing or being homosexual, may operate to inhibit physical intimacy between men.     

Not Ready to Make Nice: Aberrant mothers in contemporary culture

The story of motherhood in popular culture has never been a simple one. Cross-cut by race, class, and sexuality (and, importantly, marital status), interwoven with changing psychological and biological theories and fantasies, tied up with nation-building and citizenship claims, images of motherhood remain both template and signpost upon which we project our desires for kinship and care and our most vexed understandings of womanhood and femininity. This essay examines fictional motherhood in an era of real-life Octomoms and presidential candidates. We argue that a new type of mother has emerged—particularly on TV—that presents a radical departure. From the suburban mom/drug dealer of Showtime's outré series Weeds to the vapid 1960s wife of Mad Men, aberrant mothers abound in contemporary culture. But, unlike aberrant mothers of earlier eras, these mothers are by and large heroines, unapologetically non-normative in their maternal functioning. The parenting is cursory at best and often downright neglectful, behavior that has typically resulted in sure death for Hollywood mothers of earlier eras. We examine these images as a challenge to normative familialism and rigid gender ideologies.