Detection and correction of artificial shifts in climate series

Summary.  Many long instrumental climate records are available and might provide useful information in climate research. These series are usually affected by artificial shifts, due to changes in the conditions of measurement and various kinds of spurious data. A comparison with surrounding weather-stations by means of a suitable two-factor model allows us to check the reliability of the series. An adapted penalized log-likelihood procedure is used to detect an unknown number of breaks and outliers. An example concerning temperature series from France confirms that a systematic comparison of the series together is valuable and allows us to correct the data even when no reliable series can be taken as a reference.     

Adolescent group therapy membership selection

Conclusions Social agency practitiooners can employ adolescent group therapy as an effective treatment mode, as long as a great deal of attention and planning is put into the details of group membership selection. The authors have presented suggestions and guidelines that can be used in overcoming the logistic problems inherent in forming an adolescent therapy group. We feel that proper pregroup planning is just as important in determining group results as is the ongoing group process. Group treatment does not necessarily incease a therapist's productivity or reduce the amount of time spent in therapy, but it does offer a unique experience which has certain qualitative advantages for teenagers experiencing behavioral and relationship problems within and, particularly, outside of the family system.     

Strategic Orientations in Management Literature: Three Approaches to Understanding the Interaction between Market,Technology, Entrepreneurial and Learning Orientations

Market, technology, entrepreneurial and learning orientations have attracted major scholarly interest within their specific streams of literature for some decades. These strategic orientations are seen as principles that direct and influence the activities of a firm and generate the behaviours intended to ensure its viability and performance. Prior studies have argued that firms should develop and use multiple orientations, yet the relationship between different orientations has received only fragmented attention. This paper presents a systematic review of this literature, covering 67 scholarly articles published between 1987 and 2010 which investigate multiple orientations. The paper contributes first by summarizing the current state of knowledge on the interplay between these orientations. Many of these relationships have not been studied to any great degree, and there are research gaps in the information available on the relationships between entrepreneurial, technology and learning orientation in particular. Secondly, the paper contributes to further theoretical and empirical enquiry by synthesizing the empirical findings into a three‐approach framework. The sequential, alternatives and complementary approaches to perceiving the relationship between orientations all suggest areas for further research. The sequential approach could further contribute by developing better constructs for explaining the orientation of the firm; while the alternatives approach could increase its relevance to management through the exploration of contingency settings and comparative studies. The complementary approach encourages discussion between researchers from the different streams of literature through the investigation of the relationships. It suggests focus on the investigation of both universal‐ and contingency‐dependent‐orientation configurations.     

The analytic construction of D-optimal designs for the two-variable binary logistic regression model without interaction

Candidate locally D-optimal designs for the binary two-variable logistic model with no interaction, which comprise 3 and 4 support points lying in the first quadrant of the two-dimensional Euclidean space, were introduced by Haines et al. (D-optimal designs for logistic regression in two variables. In: Lopez-Fidalgo J, Rodrigez-Diaz JM, Torsney B, editors. MODA8 – advances in model-oriented designs and analysis. Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag; 2007. p. 91–98). The authors proved algebraically the global D-optimality of the 3-point design for the special case in which the intercept parameter is equal to?1.5434. However for other selected values of the intercept parameter, the global D-optimality of the proposed 3- and 4-point designs was only demonstrated numerically. In this paper, we provide analytical proofs of the D-optimality of these 3- and 4-point designs for all negative and zero intercept parameters of the binary two-variable logistic model with no interaction. The results are extended to the construction of D-optimal designs on a rectangular design space and illustrated by means of two examples of which one is a real example taken from the literature.     

Measuring the drivers of gender inequality and their impact on development: the role of discriminatory social institutions

This paper highlights the key role of discriminatory social institutions – formal and informal laws, social norms, and practices – as the underlying drivers of gender inequality. Using the Social Institutions and Gender Index (SIGI) from the OECD Development Centre, this paper assesses the cost of gender-based discrimination in social institutions for economic and human development. Quantifying such complex issues is a powerful lever for advocacy, where rights-based arguments have tended to gain less traction. The paper provides evidence that measuring the invisible is feasible and critical to position social norms on the policy radar. It demonstrates that any truly transformative post-2015 development agenda must take into account how such inequalities impact the development pathways of women and girls across their entire life course, limiting their rights and empowerment opportunities.     

Adaptive Warped Kernel Estimators

In this work, we develop a method of adaptive non‐parametric estimation, based on ‘warped’ kernels. The aim is to estimate a real‐valued function s from a sample of random couples (X,Y). We deal with transformed data (Φ(X),Y), with Φ a one‐to‐one function, to build a collection of kernel estimators. The data‐driven bandwidth selection is performed with a method inspired by Goldenshluger and Lepski (Ann. Statist., 39, 2011, 1608). The method permits to handle various problems such as additive and multiplicative regression, conditional density estimation, hazard rate estimation based on randomly right‐censored data, and cumulative distribution function estimation from current‐status data. The interest is threefold. First, the squared‐bias/variance trade‐off is automatically realized. Next, non‐asymptotic risk bounds are derived. Lastly, the estimator is easily computed, thanks to its simple expression: a short simulation study is presented.     

Death and schooling decisions over the short and long run in rural Madagascar

This paper provides strong evidence that adult mortality has a negative impact on children educational outcomes, both over the short and the long run, in rural Madagascar. The underlying longitudinal data and the difference-in-differences strategy used overcome most of the previous cross-sectional study limitations, such as failure to control for child and household pre-death characteristics and unobserved heterogeneity. This paper also pays special attention to the heterogeneity, robustness, and long-run persistence of effects. Results show that orphans are on average 10 pp less likely to attend school than their nonorphaned counterparts, this effect being even more pronounced for girls and young children from poorer households. Results on adults further show that those orphaned during childhood eventually completed less education. These findings suggest that not only do households suffering unexpected shocks resort to schooling adjustments as an immediate risk-coping strategy, but also that adversity has long-lasting effects on human capital accumulation.     

Reconstruction of populations by stochastic optimization: Sensitivity analysis

The reconstruction of populations by stochastic optimization solves the nontrivial problem of finding demographic flows from population registers or vital statistics and censuses, if available. These flows allow the reconstruction of stocks (age pyramids and vital statistics). After a review of reconstruction methods, the sensitivity analysis shows the robustness of the method by stochastic optimization to flawed or missing values, to the length of the reconstruction period, and to variations in the actual demographic flows.     

Sexual minority youth in romantic relationships: Associations with youth well-being

This study investigated differences in depressive symptoms, loneliness, and self-esteem for monosexual (lesbian, gay) and plurisexual (bisexual, pansexual, queer) sexual minority youth (SMY) by relationship status (single, partnered) and relationship configuration (same-gender partner, different-gender partner). Participants included 338 SMY (M_age = 19.10 years) who reported on their relationship status, partner's gender identity, well-being, and ability to confide in partner about LGBTQ issues. Results indicated that for plurisexual youth, single status was associated with greater loneliness; plurisexual youth with same-gender partners reported fewer depressive symptoms and marginally greater ability to confide in their partner about LGBTQ issues than those with different-gender partners. Findings reveal similarities across SMY while also highlighting some unique challenges among plurisexual youth with different-gender partners.