Automatic Specification Testing for Vector Autoregressions and Multivariate Nonlinear Time Series Models

This article introduces an automatic test for the correct specification of a vector autoregression (VAR) model. The proposed test statistic is a Portmanteau statistic with an automatic selection of the order of the residual serial correlation tested. The test presents several attractive characteristics: simplicity, robustness, and high power in finite samples. The test is simple to implement since the researcher does not need to specify the order of the autocorrelation tested and the proposed critical values are simple to approximate, without resorting to bootstrap procedures. In addition, the test is robust to the presence of conditional heteroscedasticity of unknown form and accounts for estimation uncertainty without requiring the computation of large-dimensional inverses of near-to-singularity covariance matrices. The basic methodology is extended to general nonlinear multivariate time series models. Simulations show that the proposed test presents higher power than the existing ones for models commonly employed in empirical macroeconomics and empirical finance. Finally, the test is applied to the classical bivariate VAR model for GNP (gross national product) and unemployment of Blanchard and Quah (1989 Blanchard, O. and Quah, D. 1989. “The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,”. The American Economic Review, 79: 655–673. [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) and Evans (1989 Evans, G. W. 1989. “Output and Unemployment Dynamics in the United States: 1950–1985,”. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 4: 213–238. [Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). Online supplementary material includes proofs and additional details.     

Coalitional Interval Games for Strategic Games in Which Players Cooperate

We propose a method to associate a coalitional interval game with each strategic game. The method is based on the lower and upper values of finite two-person zero-sum games. Associating with a strategic game a coalitional interval game we avoid having to take either a pessimistic or an optimistic approach to the problem. The paper makes two contributions to the literature: It provides a theoretical foundation for the study of coalitional interval games and it also provides, studies, and characterizes a natural method of associating coalitional interval games with strategic games.      

An Experiment on Rational Insurance Decisions

We describe the results of an experiment on decision making in an insurance context. The experiment was designed to test for the underlying rationality of insurance consumers, where rationality is understood in usual economic terms. In particular, using expected utility as the preference function, we test for positive marginal utility, risk aversion, and decreasing absolute risk aversion, all of which are normal postulates for any microeconomic decision context under uncertainty or risk. We find that there the discrepancy from rational decision making increases with the sophistication of the rationality criteria, that irrationality concerning fair premium contracts is uncharacteristically high, and that the slope of absolute risk aversion seems to depend on the format of the insurance contract. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Social Optimal Location of Facilities with Fixed Servers,Stochastic Demand,and Congestion

We consider two capacity choice scenarios for the optimal location of facilities with fixed servers, stochastic demand, and congestion. Motivating applications include virtual call centers, consisting of geographically dispersed centers, walk‐in health clinics, motor vehicle inspection stations, automobile emissions testing stations, and internal service systems. The choice of locations for such facilities influences both the travel cost and waiting times of users. In contrast to most previous research, we explicitly embed both customer travel/connection and delay costs in the objective function and solve the location–allocation problem and choose facility capacities simultaneously. The choice of capacity for a facility that is viewed as a queueing system with Poisson arrivals and exponential service times could mean choosing a service rate for the servers (Scenario 1) or choosing the number of servers (Scenario 2). We express the optimal service rate in closed form in Scenario 1 and the (asymptotically) optimal number of servers in closed form in Scenario 2. This allows us to eliminate both the number of servers and the service rates from the optimization problems, leading to tractable mixed‐integer nonlinear programs. Our computational results show that both problems can be solved efficiently using a Lagrangian relaxation optimization procedure.     

Expanding economic protection to the elderly in Latin America

This article addresses the reforms introduced in Latin American pension systems that had the aim of increasing coverage beyond formal‐sector workers. For this purpose, fourteen representative regional experiences are analysed using a taxonomy based on features of the cases examined in terms of design, implementation and results. The findings show that, although the reforms share the goal of expanding coverage, there are significant differences deriving from the context in which they were originally designed, their goals, and the capacity available to implement them. The results are not homogeneous, and it is possible to identify some aspects in which policy decisions can lead to better or worse results.     

Do healthy diets in Europe matter to the environment? A quantitative analysis

Final consumption of food products figures amongst the strongest contributors to negative environmental impacts in Europe, with the production of beef and pork at agricultural level being the main responsible part of the food supply chain. This article analyses quantitatively the environmental impact of changing European diets. The environmental impact of European consumption is determined with an environmental extended input-output analysis, supplemented by a partial equilibrium model reflecting changes of the agricultural sector to modified diets. It results that agricultural production does not decrease significantly in reaction to reduced food consumption, due to a changed trade balance and substitution effects.     

Efficient Wald Tests for Fractional Unit Roots

In this article we introduce efficient Wald tests for testing the null hypothesis of the unit root against the alternative of the fractional unit root. In a local alternative framework, the proposed tests are locally asymptotically equivalent to the optimal Robinson Lagrange multiplier tests. Our results contrast with the tests for fractional unit roots, introduced by Dolado, Gonzalo, and Mayoral, which are inefficient. In the presence of short range serial correlation, we propose a simple and efficient two‐step test that avoids the estimation of a nonlinear regression model. In addition, the first‐order asymptotic properties of the proposed tests are not affected by the preestimation of short or long memory parameters.     

DISENFRANCHISEMENT IN LINGUISTICALLY DIVERSE SOCIETIES: THE CASE OF THE EUROPEAN UNION

We consider a linguistically diversified society and examine the notion of language disenfranchisement when some individuals are denied the full access to documents and political process in their native tongues. To calculate the disenfranchisement indices we use the Dyen percentage cognate matrix of linguistic distances between Indo‐European languages and apply survey and population data on language proficiency in the European Union. We then determine optimal sets of official languages that depend on society's sensitivity against disenfranchisement and comprehensiveness of the chosen language regime. We also discuss the language situation in the European Union after its last enlargement. (JEL: D70, O52, Z13)     

Genetics of pathological gambling

Pathological gambling (PG) is an impulse control disorder and a model behavioral addiction. Familial factors have been observed in clinical studies of pathological gamblers, and twin studies have demonstrated a genetic influence contributing to the development of PG. Serotonergic, noradrenergic, and dopaminergic dysfunction have been reported as biological factors contributing to the pathophysiology of PG. Molecular genetic techniques have been used to investigate the role of genetic factors in PG. Molecular genetic research has identified specific allele variants of candidate genes corresponding to these neurotransmitter systems to be associated with PG. Associations have been reported between pathological gamblers and allele variants of polymorphisms at dopamine receptor genes, the serotonin transporter gene, and the monoamine-oxidase A gene. Although preliminary data suggest that some of these differences are gender-specific, more research needs to be performed to substantiate gender-specific genetic contributions to the development of pathological gambling. The review of the current findings on genetics of PG suggests that liability to PG is in part mediated by genetic factors. Additional studies are needed to replicate and extend these findings, as well as to better understand the influence of specific allelic variants to differences in biological and behavioral functioning.     

EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS OF IMMIGRANTS VERSUS NATIVES: EVIDENCE FROM THE BOOM‐BUST PERIOD IN SPAIN, 2000–2011

This article studies whether the durations in unemployment and employment for immigrants and natives respond differently to changes in economic conditions and to the receipt of unemployment benefits. Using Spanish administrative data for the period 2000–2011, we estimate multi‐spell duration models that disentangle unobserved heterogeneity from true duration dependence. Our findings suggest that immigrants are more sensitive to changes in economic conditions both in terms of unemployment and employment hazards. The effect of the business cycle is not constant but decreases with duration at a higher rate among immigrants. We provide evidence that the higher job separation rates and lower capital‐labor complementarity of immigrants are mechanisms that are possibly compatible with these results. We also find evidence of a disincentive effect of unemployment benefits on unemployment duration, which is stronger for immigrants, but only at the beginning of the unemployment spell, especially under good economic conditions. Finally, unemployment benefits increase job match quality only for native workers with temporary contracts. (JEL J64, J61, C23, C41, J65)