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31.
This study, based on quantitative and qualitative surveys conducted from July 2004 to September 2005, examines the perceptions of Hanoi consumers and their reactions to the Avian Influenza epizootic (H5N1). Hanoi consumers clearly link the risk of human contamination by the virus to the preparation and ingestion of poultry. During the first crisis, consumers reacted quickly and intensely (74% of them had already stopped eating poultry in January 2004). Nevertheless, once the crisis abated, they quickly resumed their consumption of poultry. This behavior corresponds to the pattern described by empirical studies of other crises, such as BSE. What is more surprising is the speed with which the different steps of this common pattern succeeded one another. It may be explained by a rapid decrease in risk anxiety. A logit model shows that, soon after the beginning of the crisis, AI risk anxiety was tempered by confidence in the information and recommendations issued by the government concerning AI and, in the long term, by a high perceived self-efficiency to deal with AI. Indeed, not only has poultry consumption been affected in terms of the quantity consumed, but alternative ways of selecting and preparing poultry have also been adopted as anti-risk practices. Risk communication strategies should take this into account, and rely on a previous assessment of consumer practices adopted to deal with the risk. 相似文献
32.
This article aims to investigate parental influence on high-risk behavior by young people. Although research on the topic of perception of risk demonstrates that it is socially constructed, the role of the family in this construction has rarely been studied. Using a French national survey of more than 1,200 young drivers between the ages of 18 and 25, and their parents, we attempt to understand the transmission of risk within families. Our econometric study shows that parents influence both the practices and representations of their children. When parental norms and values are transmitted, they are by no means accepted in a wholly passive way. Indeed, the parental model is in competition with other models that originate from both inside the family (brothers and sisters) and outside it (instructors). Furthermore, parental influence decreases over time as young people become more experienced drivers and construct their own identity with regard to risk. 相似文献
33.
Fabien Gagnon Mathieu Courchesne Benoît Lévesque Pierre Ayotte Jean‐Marc Leclerc Jean‐Claude Belles‐Isles Claude Prévost Jean‐Claude Dessau 《Risk analysis》2008,28(5):1221-1230
The present study was aimed at assessing the health consequences of the presence of radon in Quebec homes and the possible impact of various screening programs on lung cancer mortality. Lung cancer risk due to this radioactive gas was estimated according to the cancer risk model developed by the Sixth Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations. Objective data on residential radon exposure, population mobility, and tobacco use in the study population were integrated into a Monte‐Carlo‐type model. Participation rates to radon screening programs were estimated from published data. According to the model used, approximately 10% of deaths due to lung cancer are attributable to residential radon exposure on a yearly basis in Quebec. In the long term, the promotion of a universal screening program would prevent less than one death/year on a province‐wide scale (0.8 case; IC 99%: –3.6 to 5.2 cases/year), for an overall reduction of 0.19% in radon‐related mortality. Reductions in mortality due to radon by (1) the implementation of a targeted screening program in the region with the highest concentrations, (2) the promotion of screening on a local basis with financial support, or (3) the realization of systematic investigations in primary and secondary schools would increase to 1%, 14%, and 16.4%, respectively, in the each of the populations targeted by these scenarios. Other than the battle against tobacco use, radon screening in public buildings thus currently appears as the most promising screening policy for reducing radon‐related lung cancer. 相似文献
34.
Conservation biology aims at assessing the status of a population, based on information which is often incomplete. Integrated population modelling based on state‐space models appears to be a powerful and relevant way of combining into a single likelihood several types of information such as capture‐recapture data and population surveys. In this paper, the authors describe the principles of integrated population modelling and they evaluate its performance for conservation biology based on a case study, that of the black‐footed albatross, a northern Pacific albatross species suspected to be impacted by longline fishing 相似文献
35.
The authors provide an overview of optimal scaling results for the Metropolis algorithm with Gaussian proposal distribution. They address in more depth the case of high‐dimensional target distributions formed of independent, but not identically distributed components. They attempt to give an intuitive explanation as to why the well‐known optimal acceptance rate of 0.234 is not always suitable. They show how to find the asymptotically optimal acceptance rate when needed, and they explain why it is sometimes necessary to turn to inhomogeneous proposal distributions. Their results are illustrated with a simple example. 相似文献
36.
This paper evaluates 29 methods for obtaining a two-sided confidence interval for a binomial proportion (16 of which are new proposals) and comes to the conclusion that: Wilson's classic method is only optimal for a confidence of 99%, although generally it can be applied when n≥50; for a confidence of 95% or 90%, the optimal method is the one based on the arcsine transformation (when this is applied to the data incremented by 0.5), which behaves in a very similar manner to Jeffreys’ Bayesian method. A simpler option, though not so good as those just mentioned, is the classic-adjusted Wald method of Agresti and Coull. 相似文献
37.
Jonathan El Methni Laurent Gardes Stéphane Girard 《Scandinavian Journal of Statistics》2014,41(4):988-1012
In this paper, we introduce a new risk measure, the so‐called conditional tail moment. It is defined as the moment of order a ≥ 0 of the loss distribution above the upper α‐quantile where α ∈ (0,1). Estimating the conditional tail moment permits us to estimate all risk measures based on conditional moments such as conditional tail expectation, conditional value at risk or conditional tail variance. Here, we focus on the estimation of these risk measures in case of extreme losses (where α ↓0 is no longer fixed). It is moreover assumed that the loss distribution is heavy tailed and depends on a covariate. The estimation method thus combines non‐parametric kernel methods with extreme‐value statistics. The asymptotic distribution of the estimators is established, and their finite‐sample behaviour is illustrated both on simulated data and on a real data set of daily rainfalls. 相似文献
38.
Tomasz R. Bielecki Areski Cousin Stéphane Crépey Alexander Herbertsson 《统计学通讯:理论与方法》2014,43(7):1362-1389
In Bielecki et al. (2014a), the authors introduced a Markov copula model of portfolio credit risk where pricing and hedging can be done in a sound theoretical and practical way. Further theoretical backgrounds and practical details are developed in Bielecki et al. (2014b,c) where numerical illustrations assumed deterministic intensities and constant recoveries. In the present paper, we show how to incorporate stochastic default intensities and random recoveries in the bottom-up modeling framework of Bielecki et al. (2014a) while preserving numerical tractability. These two features are of primary importance for applications like CVA computations on credit derivatives (Assefa et al., 2011; Bielecki et al., 2012), as CVA is sensitive to the stochastic nature of credit spreads and random recoveries allow to achieve satisfactory calibration even for “badly behaved” data sets. This article is thus a complement to Bielecki et al. (2014a), Bielecki et al. (2014b) and Bielecki et al. (2014c). 相似文献
39.
We devise simulation/regression numerical schemes for pricing the CVA on CDO tranches, where CVA stands for Credit Valuation Adjustment, or price correction accounting for the defaultability of a counterparty in an OTC derivatives transaction. This is done in the setup of a continuous-time Markov chain model of default times, in which dependence between credit names is represented by the possibility of simultaneous defaults. The main idea of this article is to perform the nonlinear regressions which are used for computing conditional expectations, in the time variable for a given state of the model, rather than in the space variables at a given time in diffusive setups. This idea is formalized as a lemma which is valid in any continuous-time Markov chain model. It is then implemented on the targeted application of CVA computations on CDO tranches. 相似文献
40.
Abdulkadir A. Hussein Sévérien Nkurunziza Katrina Tomanelli 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》2014,56(1):15-26
Aalen's nonparametric additive model in which the regression coefficients are assumed to be unspecified functions of time is a flexible alternative to Cox's proportional hazards model when the proportionality assumption is in doubt. In this paper, we incorporate a general linear hypothesis into the estimation of the time‐varying regression coefficients. We combine unrestricted least squares estimators and estimators that are restricted by the linear hypothesis and produce James‐Stein‐type shrinkage estimators of the regression coefficients. We develop the asymptotic joint distribution of such restricted and unrestricted estimators and use this to study the relative performance of the proposed estimators via their integrated asymptotic distributional risks. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to examine the relative performance of the estimators in terms of their integrated mean square errors. We also compare the performance of the proposed estimators with a recently devised LASSO estimator as well as with ridge‐type estimators both via simulations and data on the survival of primary billiary cirhosis patients. 相似文献