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71.
Hélcio Vieira Junior Karl Heinz Kienitz Mischel Carmen Neyra Belder-Rain 《统计学通讯:模拟与计算》2016,45(5):1731-1747
We propose a new procedure for the multinomial selection problem to solve a real problem of any modern Air Force: the elaboration of better air-to-air tactics for Beyond Visual Range air-to-air combat that maximize its aircraft survival probability H(θ, ω), as well as enemy aircraft downing probability G(θ, ω). In this study, using a low-resolution simulator with generic parameters for the aircraft and missiles, we could increase an average success rate of 16.69% and 16.23% for H(θ, ω) and G(θ, ω), respectively, to an average success rate of 76.85% and 79.30%. We can assure with low probability of being wrong that the selected tactic has greater probability of yielding greater success rates in both H(θ, ω) and G(θ, ω) than any simulated tactic. 相似文献
72.
M. L. Rodero-Cosano C. R. Garcia-Alonso J. A. Salinas-Pérez 《Social indicators research》2014,115(2):751-765
The study of deprivation, as a social indicator, is basic in the design and development of public policies because it allows decision makers to identify and analyse needy areas in order to improve their citizens’ well-being. The methodological approach proposed for the development of a new deprivation index is based on the Causal Theory whose conceptual model is analysed using Structural Equations. The domains selected for the deprivation index are: education, employment, income, housing, infrastructures and health. A structural equation model based on variance is the exploratory method used to obtain the indices pertaining to the above mentioned areas; the results obtained are seen to be quite reliable. There is a positive connection between the areas of education, employment and income while the relations between infrastructures and health are found to be negative. The results can be projected at a local level and show basic territorial deficiencies. The spatial units studied are the Andalusian (south of Spain) municipalities (770). The spatial projection of the indices obtained for the domains of deprivation highlights the existence of geographical areas which could be a potential target for public action. 相似文献
73.
Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation designs for simultaneously estimating the optimal and maximum safe dose based on safety and efficacy 下载免费PDF全文
Wai Yin Yeung Bruno Reigner Ulrich Beyer Cheikh Diack Daniel Sabanés bové Giuseppe Palermo Thomas Jaki 《Pharmaceutical statistics》2017,16(6):396-413
The main purpose of dose‐escalation trials is to identify the dose(s) that is/are safe and efficacious for further investigations in later studies. In this paper, we introduce dose‐escalation designs that incorporate both the dose‐limiting events and dose‐limiting toxicities (DLTs) and indicative responses of efficacy into the procedure. A flexible nonparametric model is used for modelling the continuous efficacy responses while a logistic model is used for the binary DLTs. Escalation decisions are based on the combination of the probabilities of DLTs and expected efficacy through a gain function. On the basis of this setup, we then introduce 2 types of Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation strategies. The first type of procedures, called “single objective,” aims to identify and recommend a single dose, either the maximum tolerated dose, the highest dose that is considered as safe, or the optimal dose, a safe dose that gives optimum benefit risk. The second type, called “dual objective,” aims to jointly estimate both the maximum tolerated dose and the optimal dose accurately. The recommended doses obtained under these dose‐escalation procedures provide information about the safety and efficacy profile of the novel drug to facilitate later studies. We evaluate different strategies via simulations based on an example constructed from a real trial on patients with type 2 diabetes, and the use of stopping rules is assessed. We find that the nonparametric model estimates the efficacy responses well for different underlying true shapes. The dual‐objective designs give better results in terms of identifying the 2 real target doses compared to the single‐objective designs. 相似文献
74.
75.
Abdulkadir A. Hussein Sévérien Nkurunziza Katrina Tomanelli 《Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics》2014,56(1):15-26
Aalen's nonparametric additive model in which the regression coefficients are assumed to be unspecified functions of time is a flexible alternative to Cox's proportional hazards model when the proportionality assumption is in doubt. In this paper, we incorporate a general linear hypothesis into the estimation of the time‐varying regression coefficients. We combine unrestricted least squares estimators and estimators that are restricted by the linear hypothesis and produce James‐Stein‐type shrinkage estimators of the regression coefficients. We develop the asymptotic joint distribution of such restricted and unrestricted estimators and use this to study the relative performance of the proposed estimators via their integrated asymptotic distributional risks. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to examine the relative performance of the estimators in terms of their integrated mean square errors. We also compare the performance of the proposed estimators with a recently devised LASSO estimator as well as with ridge‐type estimators both via simulations and data on the survival of primary billiary cirhosis patients. 相似文献
76.
This article deals with a stochastic optimal control problem for a class of buffered multi-parts flow-shops manufacturing system. The involved machines are subject to random breakdowns and repairs. The flow-shop under consideration is not completely flexible and hence requires setup time and cost in order to switch the production from a part type to another, this changeover is carried on the whole line. Our objective is to find the production plan and the sequence of setups that minimise the cost function, which penalises inventories/backlogs and setups. A continuous dynamic programming formulation of the problem is presented. Then, a numerical scheme is adopted to solve the obtained optimality conditions equations for a two buffered serial machines two parts case. A complete heuristic policy, based on the numerical observations which describe the optimal policies in system states, is developed. It will be shown that the obtained policy is a combination of a KANBAN/CONWIP and a modified hedging corridor policy. Moreover, based on our observations and existent research studies extension to cover more complex flow-shops is henceforth possible. The robustness of such a policy is illustrated through sensitivity analysis. 相似文献
77.
Getulio Jose amorim Amaral Olga Patricia reyes Floréz Francisco José A Cysneiros 《统计学通讯:模拟与计算》2013,42(8):1801-1814
We describe methods to detect influential observations in a sample of pre-shapes when the underlying distribution is assumed to be complex Bingham. One of these methods is based on Cook's distance, which is derived from the likelihood of the complex Bingham distribution. Other method is related to the tangent space, which is based on the local influence for the multivariate normal distribution. A method to detect outliers is also explained. The application of the methods is illustrated in both a real dataset and a simulated sample. 相似文献
78.
Because wellbeing is a multi-varied and dynamic phenomenon, social scientists need to better understand how different aspects of people’s wellbeing are tied together and how these ties differ between individuals at one point in time and within individuals over time. The paper outlines a general model that considers the multidimensional structure of wellbeing. We utilize the potential of latent variable modelling on a unique Swedish database: the Panel Survey of Ageing and the Elderly (PSAE). An inclusive and flexible model that considers the interactions between semi-autonomous domains (material resources, health, psychosocial factors, lifestyle, etc.) is developed. Our empirical study is based on cross-sectional PSAE data and focuses on people 55 years or older (N = 5,374). The analysis takes advantage of recent developments in statistical theory in the field of latent variable modelling to bring about a more dynamic and theory confirming analysis of a multifaceted phenomenon such as wellbeing. 相似文献
79.
Dorothe Boccanfuso Luc Savard 《Development policy review : the journal of the Overseas Development Institute》2011,29(2):211-247
This article uses two CGE macro‐micro models to analyse the distributional impact of the food crisis and policy responses in two neighbouring African countries, both of which are strongly dependent on agriculture. The approach captures structural differences at both the macro and micro level for household income and expenditure structures, and the results reveal differences for poverty impact at the national and sub‐group levels, as well as for inequality and pro‐poor analysis. The importance of country‐specific analysis and the risk of extrapolating conclusions from one country to another are also highlighted. 相似文献
80.
In this article, we propose a general method for testing the Granger noncausality hypothesis in stationary nonlinear models of unknown functional form. These tests are based on a Taylor expansion of the nonlinear model around a given point in the sample space. We study the performance of our tests by a Monte Carlo experiment and compare these to the most widely used linear test. Our tests appear to be well-sized and have reasonably good power properties. 相似文献