A Robust Multivariate Procedure for the Identification of Problem Savings and Loan Institutions*

The 1980s have seen a great increase in the number of failed savings and loan institutions. In order to prevent such failures, it would be helpful if regulators have an early warning model. Such a model should be able to flag potential failed firms to prevent failure. In this paper, a robust multivariate procedure is used to successfully identify potentially failed firms well ahead of an actual failure date.     

Testing equality of variances after a preliminary test of significance for correlation coefficient

On the basis of the outcome of a preliminary test of significance for the population correlation coefficient it is decided as to whether the variance ratio or the sample correlation coefficient between u=(x+y)/2 and v=x?y)/2 is to be used as a test statistic for testing the equality of variances. A method for determining the critical points for the preliminary test and the main test has been suggested. The power of the test procedure is compared with those of standard tests.     

Dissecting Public Sector Corruption in Bangladesh: Issues and Problems of Control

The public sector in Bangladesh is ridden with corruption of various dimensions and shades. Apart from bribery, rent-seeking and misappropriation of funds, the performance of public organizations is adversely affected by a host of other factors like excessive lobbying, delays in service provision, pilferage and larceny, irresponsible conduct of officials, bureaucratic intemperance, patronage and clientelism. The several institutional mechanisms to combat administrative malfeasance are rendered ineffective by a non-committed political leadership, a blase"d bureaucracy, weak accountability structures, and unproductive legislative labors. The public body for controlling corruption is itself associated with all sorts of malpractices and conducts its affair most unprofessionally. Despite several attempts, the constitutionally authorized ombudsman is yet to find its place in the governance framework.     

Accountability and value for money: a theoretical framework for the relationship in public–private partnerships

There is an implicit assumption in the UK Treasury’s publications on public-private partnerships (PPP)—also more commonly known in the United Kingdom as private finance initiative (PFI)—that accountability and value for money (VFM) are related concepts. While recent academic studies on PPP/PFI (from now on as PFI) have focused on VFM, there is a notable absence of studies exploring the ‘presumed’ relationships between accountability and VFM. Drawing on Dubnick’s (Dubnick and Romzek in American public administration, politics and the management of expectations. Macmillan, New York, 1991, Research in public administration. JAI, Greenwich, 1993; Dubnick in Public service ethics and the cultures of blame, 1996, Public sector ethics: finding and implementing values. Routledge, London, 1998, Int J Org Theory Behav 6(3):405–441, 2003, Public Perform Manage Rev 28(3):376–417, 2005; Dubnick and Justice in But can you trust them to be ethical, 2002) framework for accountability and PFI literature, we develop a research framework for exploring potential relationships between accountability and VFM in PFI projects by proposing alternative accountability cultures, processes and mechanisms for PFI. The PFI accountability model is then exposed to four criteria—warrantability, tractability, measurability and feasibility. Our preliminary interviews provide us guidance in identifying some of the cultures, processes and mechanisms indicated in our model which should enable future researchers to test not only the UK Government’s claimed relationships between accountability and VFM using more specific PFI empirical data, but also a potential relationship between accountability and performance in general.     

On selecting from k finite populations the population with the largest α -quantile

Several procedures for ranking populations according to the quantile of a given order have been discussed in the literature. These procedures deal with continuous distributions. This paper deals with the problem of selecting a population with the largest α-quantile from k ≥ 2 finite populatins, where the size of each population is known. A selection rule is given based on the sample quantiles, where he samples are drawn without replacement. A formula for the minimum probability of a correct selection for the given rule, for a certain configuration of the population α-quantiles, is given in terms of the sample numbers.     

Stopping for efficacy in single-arm phase II clinical trials

Phase II clinical trials investigate whether a new drug or treatment has sufficient evidence of effectiveness against the disease under study. Two-stage designs are popular for phase II since they can stop in the first stage if the drug is ineffective. Investigators often face difficulties in determining the target response rates, and adaptive designs can help to set the target response rate tested in the second stage based on the number of responses observed in the first stage. Popular adaptive designs consider two alternate response rates, and they generally minimise the expected sample size at the maximum uninterested response rate. Moreover, these designs consider only futility as the reason for early stopping and have high expected sample sizes if the provided drug is effective. Motivated by this problem, we propose an adaptive design that enables us to terminate the single-arm trial at the first stage for efficacy and conclude which alternate response rate to choose. Comparing the proposed design with a popular adaptive design from literature reveals that the expected sample size decreases notably if any of the two target response rates are correct. In contrast, the expected sample size remains almost the same under the null hypothesis.     

A study of subjective visual disturbances in jewellery manufacturing

Subjective Visual Disturbances are silent adversaries that appear over a period of continued exposure and arise when the visual demands of the tasks exceed the visual abilities of the user. Jewellery manufacturing activity involves precision designs, setting the metal and stones, polishing and filing which requires higher visual demand. Therefore, it is expected that the jewellery manufacturing workers may experience subjective visual disturbances. This study was taken up with the following objectives 1) To study the presence of subjective visual disturbances among jewellery manufacturing workers and compare the same with VDT operators 2) To study the effect of work exposures on subjective visual disturbances and 3) to ascertain whether subjective visual disturbances have any permanent vision related problems. The study was carried out on jewellery manufacturing workers, VDT operators and on graduate students. The symptoms of subjective visual disturbances were identified using a questionnaire developed by Sheedy (2003). Viewing distances were measured and visual angles were calculated. The eye check--ups were also carried out. The subjective visual disturbances were higher in jewellery manufacturing workers. The findings suggest that work exposure has an impact on the causation of subjective visual disturbances. No pathological conditions of the eyes were observed.     

用于改良杂交水稻品种的抗虫性转基因保持系(IR68899B)

杂种优势的利用使得水稻产量较半矮杆常规稻增加了 1 5%以上 ,为了保持产量的稳定 ,杂交稻品种还应具备对病虫的可遗传抗性 ,比如对茎杆钻心虫的抗性。而来自于苏云金杆菌并经人工剪裁合成的CryIA(b)基因便是有效地抗茎杆钻心虫基因之一。实践证明 ,基因转化是一项导入细菌基因于水稻基因组的行之有效的技术。笔者已利用获得转基因保持系这一途径来选育抗虫的杂交稻。利用基因枪方法 ,将CryIA(b)基因以及驱动该基因的 3 5S启动子成功地转入了IRRI的骨干保持系IR68899B。该基因的整合和表达已由Southern和Western杂交所证明。目前已分析到转基因植株的第二世代 (T2 )。鉴定表明 ,Bt 转基因植株中黄色茎杆钻心虫的抗性明显提高。本文首次报导转基因保持系的获得 ,以用于杂交稻品种的选育     

Description and Propagation of Uncertainty in Input Parameters in Environmental Fate Models

Today, chemical risk and safety assessments rely heavily on the estimation of environmental fate by models. The key compound‐related properties in such models describe partitioning and reactivity. Uncertainty in determining these properties can be separated into random and systematic (incompleteness) components, requiring different types of representation. Here, we evaluate two approaches that are suitable to treat also systematic errors, fuzzy arithmetic, and probability bounds analysis. When a best estimate (mode) and a range can be computed for an input parameter, then it is possible to characterize the uncertainty with a triangular fuzzy number (possibility distribution) or a corresponding probability box bound by two uniform distributions. We use a five‐compartment Level I fugacity model and reported empirical data from the literature for three well‐known environmental pollutants (benzene, pyrene, and DDT) as illustrative cases for this evaluation. Propagation of uncertainty by discrete probability calculus or interval arithmetic can be done at a low computational cost and gives maximum flexibility in applying different approaches. Our evaluation suggests that the difference between fuzzy arithmetic and probability bounds analysis is small, at least for this specific case. The fuzzy arithmetic approach can, however, be regarded as less conservative than probability bounds analysis if the assumption of independence is removed. Both approaches are sensitive to repeated parameters that may inflate the uncertainty estimate. Uncertainty described by probability boxes was therefore also propagated through the model by Monte Carlo simulation to show how this problem can be avoided.