以江泽民同志"5·31"讲话和"三个代表"重要思想为指导 全面推进普通女子高等教育

学习江泽民同志“5·31”讲话,要牢牢把握“三个代表”这条主线,要紧紧抓住解放思想、实事求是、与时俱进、开拓创新这个精髓,要立足于理论联系实际,全面推进普通女子高等教育,加快中华女子学院的发展。     

贾宝玉“性爱体系”的层次界定问题

《红楼梦》中的贾宝玉有“情痴情种”、“天下第一淫人”之称。有人说他是泛爱者 ,有人则说他是专爱者 ,彼此矛盾。指出贾宝玉“性爱体系”的说法 ,并对该体系逐层递进的性爱层次进行界定 ,这将使得人们在“泛爱”与“专爱”的矛盾面前 ,不再显得尴尬 ,对作者的创作动机也会有深入一步的了解     

琉球诗散论

追溯中国古典诗歌载述和反映琉球的历史 ,重点论述明清中国诗人所写琉球诗发达的原因和主要内容 ,可以看出琉球诗具有浓厚的海洋气息和魅力 ,它拓展了中国古典诗歌的题材 ,在某种程度上也提高了诗人们的创作水平。琉球纪事诗不仅可与史籍相发明 ,而且有时可补史料的不足。     

论汉画中的妇女形象

汉代画像石 (砖 )有大量的表现汉代妇女生活的画像 ,主要有神话传说中的妇女形象、贵族妇女形象、劳动妇女形象、历史故事中的妇女形象、侍女形象、乐舞百戏中的艺伎形象六种类型 ,在不同程度上反映了汉代妇女在社会生活、生产中的地位。     

Computing maximum likelihood estimates from type II doubly censored exponential data

It is well-known that, under Type II double censoring, the maximum likelihood (ML) estimators of the location and scale parameters, θ and δ, of a twoparameter exponential distribution are linear functions of the order statistics. In contrast, when θ is known, theML estimator of δ does not admit a closed form expression. It is shown, however, that theML estimator of the scale parameter exists and is unique. Moreover, it has good large-sample properties. In addition, sharp lower and upper bounds for this estimator are provided, which can serve as starting points for iterative interpolation methods such as regula falsi. Explicit expressions for the expected Fisher information and Cramér-Rao lower bound are also derived. In the Bayesian context, assuming an inverted gamma prior on δ, the uniqueness, boundedness and asymptotics of the highest posterior density estimator of δ can be deduced in a similar way. Finally, an illustrative example is included.     

Bayesian modelling of catch in a north-west Atlantic fishery

Summary. We model daily catches of fishing boats in the Grand Bank fishing grounds. We use data on catches per species for a number of vessels collected by the European Union in the context of the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization. Many variables can be thought to influence the amount caught: a number of ship characteristics (such as the size of the ship, the fishing technique used and the mesh size of the nets) are obvious candidates, but one can also consider the season or the actual location of the catch. Our database leads to 28 possible regressors (arising from six continuous variables and four categorical variables, whose 22 levels are treated separately), resulting in a set of 177 million possible linear regression models for the log-catch. Zero observations are modelled separately through a probit model. Inference is based on Bayesian model averaging, using a Markov chain Monte Carlo approach. Particular attention is paid to the prediction of catches for single and aggregated ships.     

界定语言的逻辑理路

迄今,还没有一门科学像语言学这样不能提供研究对象的结论性定义。语言有三个本质属性,即社会事实、心理表征及声音和意义结合的符号系统,只有对语言进行三维观照,才有可能本真地推导出语言这一语言学对象所特有的、本质的属性     

Empirical likelihood confidence intervals for the mean of a population containing many zero values

If a population contains many zero values and the sample size is not very large, the traditional normal approximation‐based confidence intervals for the population mean may have poor coverage probabilities. This problem is substantially reduced by constructing parametric likelihood ratio intervals when an appropriate mixture model can be found. In the context of survey sampling, however, there is a general preference for making minimal assumptions about the population under study. The authors have therefore investigated the coverage properties of nonparametric empirical likelihood confidence intervals for the population mean. They show that under a variety of hypothetical populations, these intervals often outperformed parametric likelihood intervals by having more balanced coverage rates and larger lower bounds. The authors illustrate their methodology using data from the Canadian Labour Force Survey for the year 2000.     

Type I error rates from likelihood‐based repeated measures analyses of incomplete longitudinal data

The last observation carried forward (LOCF) approach is commonly utilized to handle missing values in the primary analysis of clinical trials. However, recent evidence suggests that likelihood‐based analyses developed under the missing at random (MAR) framework are sensible alternatives. The objective of this study was to assess the Type I error rates from a likelihood‐based MAR approach – mixed‐model repeated measures (MMRM) – compared with LOCF when estimating treatment contrasts for mean change from baseline to endpoint (Δ). Data emulating neuropsychiatric clinical trials were simulated in a 4 × 4 factorial arrangement of scenarios, using four patterns of mean changes over time and four strategies for deleting data to generate subject dropout via an MAR mechanism. In data with no dropout, estimates of Δ and SE_Δ from MMRM and LOCF were identical. In data with dropout, the Type I error rates (averaged across all scenarios) for MMRM and LOCF were 5.49% and 16.76%, respectively. In 11 of the 16 scenarios, the Type I error rate from MMRM was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate of 5.00% than the corresponding rate from LOCF. In no scenario did LOCF yield a Type I error rate that was at least 1.00% closer to the expected rate than the corresponding rate from MMRM. The average estimate of SE_Δ from MMRM was greater in data with dropout than in complete data, whereas the average estimate of SE_Δ from LOCF was smaller in data with dropout than in complete data, suggesting that standard errors from MMRM better reflected the uncertainty in the data. The results from this investigation support those from previous studies, which found that MMRM provided reasonable control of Type I error even in the presence of MNAR missingness. No universally best approach to analysis of longitudinal data exists. However, likelihood‐based MAR approaches have been shown to perform well in a variety of situations and are a sensible alternative to the LOCF approach. MNAR methods can be used within a sensitivity analysis framework to test the potential presence and impact of MNAR data, thereby assessing robustness of results from an MAR method. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中国农村妇女问题研究综述

随着党中央对三农问题的重视,中国农村妇女问题逐渐凸现出来。对近二十年的中国农村妇女研究重新进行阶段划分,并对中国农村妇女研究所涉及的性别与劳动就业分工,农业女性化问题,农村妇女家庭地位及其变化,农村妇女科学文化素质及培训,农村女性劳动力流动及影响因素,农村妇女与贫困,农村妇女与人口再生产,农村妇女与资源、环境和持续发展,农村妇女参政议政等问题,进行多角度的分析说明,从中总结出经验和不足。农村妇女发展要联系农村实际,要针对多方面因素考虑农村妇女发展与农村诸要素之间的关系。农村妇女研究要采取定量与定性相结合的分析方法,从不同地域、不同环境入手分析当地农村妇女的实际情况,以便在今后的研究中得以借鉴。