A modification for use in destabilized populations of brass's technique for estimating completeness of death registration

Summary Brass has developed a method of estimating completeness of death registration using only data on deaths and population by age and sex. In this paper, his method is briefly outlined and the assumptions upon which it is based are discussed. In particular, the implications of the failure of the assumption of stability of the population are investigated. It is found that in populations where mortality has been declining, use of the technique leads to underestimation of completeness. A modification of the technique based on knowledge of the duration and rate of mortality change is proposed for use in such populations. Using simulated destabilized populations, the modification is tested and found to yield more accurate estimates of completeness of death registration than the unmodified technique. The usefulness of the modified technique is further illustrated by applying it to data for Costa Rican females in 1963.     

Resolving inconsistencies in trends in old-age disability: Report from a technical working group

In September 2002, a technical working group met to resolve previously published inconsistencies across national surveys in trends in activity limitations among the older population. The 12-person panel prepared estimates from five national data sets and investigated methodological sources of the inconsistencies among the population aged 70 and older from the early 1980s to 2001. Although the evidence was mixed for the 1980s and it is difficult to pinpoint when in the 1990s the decline began, during the mid- and late 1990s, the panel found consistent declines on the order of 1%-2.5% per year for two commonly used measures in the disability literature: difficulty with daily activities and help with daily activities. Mixed evidence was found for a third measure: the use of help or equipment with daily activities. The panel also found agreement across surveys that the proportion of older persons who receive help with bathing has declined at the same time as the proportion who use only equipment (but not personal care) to bathe has increased. In comparing findings across surveys, the panel found that the period, definition of disability, treatment of the institutionalized population, and age standardizing of results were important to consider. The implications of the findings for policy, national survey efforts, and further research are discussed.     

Befragtenverhalten bei Touchscreen-Befragungen

Touchscreen-Surveys are a new form of data collection which were recently presented in this journal (issue 3/2003). In this article the behaviour of respondents is analysed, using the data of 11 so far completed survey projects as well as additional research (using the same questionnaire in face-to-face and/or paper&pencil surveys; observation of respondents, interviews with drop-outs). For analytical purposes the process of touchscreen-interviewing is divided into three stages: attracting interested persons, convincing them to take part in the survey and keeping their motivation to give answers up to the last question. It can be shown, that the projects had different ‘success’ in the three stages and for each phase certain factors can be identified. In order to attract people the location of the terminal as well as an eyecatching design of the start-screen are crucial; following up, it is important to make clear what kind of terminal it is, as most people would rather expect an information or entertainment offer, but no request to take part in a survey. Therefore the information provided on the start-screen should be clear, additional announcements like posters or instructions on the admission ticket can be useful. The third challenge is to keep the motivation of respondents to answer all question. Like web-surveys, touchscreen-interviewing is characterised by a relatively large number of drop-outs, but as it can be shown only a small part of them is caused by extrinsic reasons (like companying persons). Therefore the conception of the survey (interesting topics, clear wording) are of high importance as they should be able to maintain the peoples interest, while a clear design and good usability has to enable and support their co-operation. Although most of the drop outs break off after the first question(s) and despite of the described suggestions the length of the interview could be shown as still being the crucial factor for the completion rate.     

Estimating Increment-Decrement Life Tables with Multiple Covariates from Panel Data: The Case of Active Life Expectancy*

A fundamental limitation of current multistate life table methodology-evident in recent estimates of active life expectancy for the elderly-is the inability to estimate tables from data on small longitudinal panels in the presence of multiple covariates (such as sex, race, and socioeconomic status). This paper presents an approach to such an estimation based on an isomorphism between the structure of the stochastic model underlying a conventional specification of the increment-decrement life table and that of Markov panel regression models for simple state spaces. We argue that Markov panel regression procedures can be used to provide smoothed or graduated group-specific estimates of transition probabilities that are more stable across short age intervals than those computed directly from sample data. We then join these estimates with increment-decrement life table methods to compute group-specific total, active, and dependent life expectancy estimates. To illustrate the methods, we describe an empirical application to the estimation of such life expectancies specific to sex, race, and education (years of school completed) for a longitudinal panel of elderly persons. We find that education extends both total life expectancy and active life expectancy. Education thus may serve as a powerful social protective mechanism delaying the onset of health problems at older ages.     

Population control and politics

At all times and places population and resources must be kept in balance with each other if a high, or at least acceptable, quality of life is to be maintained. Evidence is presented that thinkers and men and women of affairs have been aware of these necessities from time immemorial and that the ancients invented most of the basic concepts of modern population ecology, at leastin embryo. This task is a problem of social control, the central process in all societies. If society's controllers and their institutions are aware, intelligent, flexible, and suitably motivated, there is no reason why most problems of population, development, and pollution should not be solved and then kept permanently in check. This must involve politics, there is no way out. As Aristotle pointed out, "Man is a political animal," and it is only through politicking that we can set up, maintain, change, and generally operate our social control systems. Deeply dysfunctional attitudes towards freedom and control—especially population control—are described and analysedvia a ten-stage argument, and helpful proposals put forward. The function which scientists in general and social scientists in particular can perform in helping human-kind to solve its complex and manifold problems is heavily stressed. Scientists in general should not become politicians, but politicians in general should become numerate and "ecolate"—to quote Garrett Hardin, and start to think more deeply and longer-term. To focus practical thinking the concepts "survival-theory" and the "principle of minimum innovation" are set forth and a final plea made for the necessity and therefore moral legitimacy of controlling numbers as well as resources. If population control seems slow in returning—it used to be the norm—recent events in Eastern Europe give good grounds for optimism about the fluidity of both human values and political institutions.     

Ethnographic perspectives on the enumeration of aboriginal people in remote Australia

This paper compares population counts and age distributions from the last two Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) enumerations of the Aboriginal population of Aurukun, Cape York Peninsula, with the results of detailed ethnographic surveys of the same population at similar points in time. This reveals substantially lower numbers for the ABS counts, particularly of young adults and children. Reasons for this discrepancy are sought in the ethnographic realities of remote indigenous communities and an alternative methodology for Aboriginal enumeration in remote regions is suggested.     

A twist on the heisenberg principle: Or,how crime affects its measurement

Evidence suggests that surveys of victimization are affected by large and systematic sources of bias which reduce the validity of comparisons over time and among geographical areas. This paper argues that the bias is especially severe because errors of measurement are correlated with the level of ‘true’ victimization. Evidence relevant to four hypothesized sources of bias is considered. First, it is hypothesized that lifestyle characteristics which are associated with victimization are also associated with respondent inaccessibility, resulting in the exclusion of victims from surveys. Second, coverage and response rates are lower in high crime areas, in part due to mutual avoidance by interviewers and respondents. Third, the social context influences rates of reporting and the classification of incidents of victimization. Finally, the bias introduced by variations in survey procedures is more severe when concepts are ambiguous and ill-defined. The hypotheses and evidence pertinent to them suggest that the measurement of trends and differences in victimization may be subject to large and fluctuating sources of error. Possible research strategies for investigating the sources of bias are suggested.     

A Longitudinal Study: Casino Gambling Attitudes, Motivations, and Gambling Patterns Among Urban Elders

Guided by self-determination theory, the main purpose of this study was to explore demographic characteristics, attitudes toward casinos, and self-reported intrinsic and extrinsic reasons for casino gambling by urban elders. The study hypothesized that individuals would more frequently report intrinsic motivations for casino gambling (e.g., entertainment, enjoyment) rather than extrinsic motivation (e.g., financial gain). This longitudinal sample included 247 urban elders older who were 60 years and older and who had participated in surveys in 2002 and 2004. The initial survey consisted of (a) demographic items, (b) five items to measure attitudes toward casino gambling, (c) questions inquiring about motivations for casino gambling, and (d) questions about gambling frequency. The follow-up survey was an expanded questionnaire which still included these items. The sample consisted of the 247 participants, over 200 of whom were African-Americans, 188 were female, and 98 of the participants had a post graduate education. About half were widowed, and the sample generally reported a low income. The results supported the theoretical perspective underlying the project. The hypothesis that more participants would endorse intrinsic motivations for casino gambling rather than extrinsic motivations was supported. The implications of these findings represent for social workers, gambling counselors and health care services providers an important step toward understanding the attitudes, behaviors, and motivational factors involved in casino gambling among older adults.     

Immigrants’ Returns to Schooling in Sweden

The aim of this paper is to find out if the returns to immigrants’ schooling are lower than the returns to natives’ schooling. In addition the paper tries to establish whether immigrants who invest in different amounts of Swedish education also differ in their returns to schooling. For immigrants arriving in Sweden as adults, the returns to schooling are on average one log point lower than for natives. The results show that returns to schooling are considerably higher for immigrants who arrived in Sweden during compulsory school age than for immigrants who arrived in Sweden after compulsory school age. Moreover, immigrants who complete their schooling in Sweden show, in general, much higher returns than immigrants with only foreign schooling.