Asymmetric Forecast Densities for U.S. Macroeconomic Variables from a Gaussian Copula Model of Cross-Sectional and Serial Dependence

Most existing reduced-form macroeconomic multivariate time series models employ elliptical disturbances, so that the forecast densities produced are symmetric. In this article, we use a copula model with asymmetric margins to produce forecast densities with the scope for severe departures from symmetry. Empirical and skew t distributions are employed for the margins, and a high-dimensional Gaussian copula is used to jointly capture cross-sectional and (multivariate) serial dependence. The copula parameter matrix is given by the correlation matrix of a latent stationary and Markov vector autoregression (VAR). We show that the likelihood can be evaluated efficiently using the unique partial correlations, and estimate the copula using Bayesian methods. We examine the forecasting performance of the model for four U.S. macroeconomic variables between 1975:Q1 and 2011:Q2 using quarterly real-time data. We find that the point and density forecasts from the copula model are competitive with those from a Bayesian VAR. During the recent recession the forecast densities exhibit substantial asymmetry, avoiding some of the pitfalls of the symmetric forecast densities from the Bayesian VAR. We show that the asymmetries in the predictive distributions of GDP growth and inflation are similar to those found in the probabilistic forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters. Last, we find that unlike the linear VAR model, our fitted Gaussian copula models exhibit nonlinear dependencies between some macroeconomic variables. This article has online supplementary material.     

Effects of a single-lesson tobacco prevention curriculum on knowledge, skill identification and smoking intention

One in five students report experimenting with tobacco before the age of 13 and most prevention efforts take place in the school setting. This study measures the effect of a single-lesson tobacco prevention curriculum, conducted by a health education center, focusing on knowledge of tobacco, ability to identify refusal techniques, and intent not to smoke. Data were collected, via electronic keypads, from students visiting a non-school, health education center in Michigan (n = 704 intervention and 85 comparison). Contingency table Chi-squared tests and t-tests demonstrated that a single lesson can improve general knowledge and ability to identify appropriate refusal techniques. Improvement in intent not to smoke was not significant because both groups had very high intent prior to implementation. Similar to results from other programs, multivariate logistic regression of gender, general knowledge, and skill identification revealed that only the skill variable was associated with intent not to smoke at pretest. Recommendations are given for further research and for designing more effective curricula or programs.     

Domestic violence screening and service acceptance among adult victims in a dependency court setting

Many child welfare systems are unable to effectively identify and address co-occurring domestic violence and child maltreatment. In response, the Dependency Court Intervention Program for Family Violence implemented a protocol to identify indicators of domestic violence in families involved with child protection proceedings. This article highlights data that demonstrate the ability of an outreach and screening process to identify adult victims of domestic violence in dependency court and to offer them appropriate intervention services.     

Home study methods for evaluating prospective resource families: history, current challenges, and promising approaches

Every state requires a home study before the placement of foster children for adoption. This article examines the history of home studies, presents results from expert interviews on the changing processes and purposes of home studies, and explores current challenges for the field. The article also introduces the Structured Analysis Family Evaluation (SAFE), a uniform home study format that encourages consistent family evaluations across workers, agencies, and jurisdictions. The article clarifies how SAFE may address challenges facing foster care and adoption practice.     

Assessing lesbian and gay prospective foster and adoptive families: a focus on the home study process

Foster care and adoption by gay men and lesbians is not a new phenomenon. Children and youth have always been placed by states and public agencies in homes with gay and lesbian parents. Some gay men and lesbians have fostered or adopted children independently from private agencies or have made private adoption arrangements with individual birthmothers, while others have fostered or adopted through the public system. Drawing on research literature, practice wisdom from 31 years of child welfare experiences, and case examples, this article offers child welfare professionals guidelines for competent assessment with prospective foster or adoptive parents who identify as lesbian or gay.     

Semi-structured interview protocol for constructing logic models

This paper details a semi-structured interview protocol that evaluators can use to develop a logic model of a program's services and outcomes. The protocol presents a series of questions, which evaluators can ask of specific program informants, that are designed to: (1) identify key informants basic background and contextual information, (2) generate logic model elements, (3) model program inputs, activities, outputs, and outcomes, (4) build a rational theory, (5) develop a program theory, (6) prioritize logic model elements, and (7) build a graphical or tabular logic model. The paper will also provide an example of how this approach was used to develop a logic model for a youth mentoring program. It is our hope and belief that with this interview protocol, novice evaluators will be able to generate comprehensive logic models like seasoned professional evaluators.     

Gambling Behavior of Student-Athletes and a Student Cohort: What are the Odds?

This study investigated the prevalence of gambling, gambling related NCAA violations, and disordered gambling in student-athletes (n = 736) with a comparison cohort of students (n = 1,071) at four universities. Student-athletes reported similar rates of gambling frequency, use of a bookmaker, and disordered gambling as students. After accounting for demographic differences, student-athletes were less likely to engage in sports wagering than students. Several risk factors for disordered gambling were identified, including being male and reporting at least one parent with a history of gambling problems. These findings suggest that problems associated with gambling are a university-wide issue with student-athletes meriting additional attention because of implications for the integrity of intercollegiate sports. Improved prevention and intervention efforts for collegiate gambling are recommended.     

Health professionals' attitudes and practices in relation to Functional Capacity Evaluations

Functional Capacity Evaluations (FCE's) are part of practice in work injury prevention and rehabilitation, and are designed to define an individual's functional abilities or limitations in the context of safe, productive work tasks. Qualitative research methodology was used to investigate the attitudes and behaviours of health professionals in relation to FCE use. The study aimed to identify why health professionals chose a particular FCE, and to identify what factors influence health professionals' clinical judgements when providing results and recommendations for the individual being assessed. Five health professionals from the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia, participated in semi-structured, individual interviews using a phenomenological approach. Following inductive analysis of the data, four themes reflecting participants' attitudes and behaviours of FCE use emerged: i) referrals and expectations, including why and when the assessment is completed ii) outcomes, -- what the results aim to provide iii) workplace/practice/usage issues and iv) skills of the assessor. The results indicate the need for further research on the clinical utility of FCE's. A large scale quantitative study would allow results to be generalised to a wider community of FCE users.     

Dopamine Genes and Pathological Gambling in Discordant Sib-Pairs

Pathological gambling (PG) is an impulse control disorder that has been considered as a behavioral addiction. Recent studies have suggested the involvement of the dopaminergic system in addictions and impulse control disorders and associations of dopamine receptor genes (DRD1, DRD2, and DRD4) and PG have been reported. In the present study, 140 sib-pairs discordant for the diagnosis of PG (70 males and 70 females on each group) were recruited through the Gambling Outpatient Unit at the Institute of Psychiatry, University of Sao Paulo and were assessed by trained psychiatrists. A family-based association design was chosen to prevent population stratification. All subjects were genotyped for dopamine receptor genes (DRD1 -800 T/C, DRD2 TaqIA RFLP, DRD3 Ser9Gly, DRD4 48bp exon III VNTR, DRD5 (CA) repeat) and the dopamine transporter gene (SCL6A3 40 bp VNTR). Our results suggest the association of PG with DRD1 -800 T/C allele T (P = .03).