The prevalence rates of pathological gambling: A look at methods

Planning the gambling environment requires protection of the public's health, safety and welfare. Whereas most public gaming provisions and statutes address the public's fears of organized crime as well as some welfare needs, rarely do they safeguard the public's health regarding the spread of the mental disease known as pathological gambling. Measurement of the prevalence and incidence of this disease would enable policy planners to evaluate both the state's responsibility for an epidemic and the adequacy of publicly funded treatment programs. The purpose of this paper is to examine the methods which underlie three different estimates of the prevalence rate of pathological gambling and to critique them in the light of sound epidemiological procedure. In 1975, the Institute for Social Research (ISR) of the University of Michigan conducted a national survey and a survey of the state of Nevada on behalf of the U.S. Commission on a National Policy Toward Gambling. Using discriminant function analysis coupled with subjective inspection of cases in the at-risk pool, the researchers estimated rates of probable and potential pathological gamblers. In 1984 and 1985, this author surveyed residents in the Delaware Valley and the state of Ohio using the cumulative clinical signs method which also posited rates of probable and potential pathological gamblers. In 1986, researchers at the Office of Mental Health for the State of New York employed a formal screening device to survey residents and proposed a rate of probable pathological gamblers and a rate of problem — although not pathological — gamblers. All three approaches produced different estimates. The utility of prevalence and incidence rate research in this field is threatened by a lack of consensus about the proper epidemiological procedure to be employed in arriving at these estimates. There is also confusion about the distinction between a probable and a potential pathological gambler. The planning purpose, method, validity and reliability of prevalence rate research about pathological gambling are addressed in this paper.     

Principal curves revisited

A principal curve (Hastie and Stuetzle, 1989) is a smooth curve passing through the middle of a distribution or data cloud, and is a generalization of linear principal components. We give an alternative definition of a principal curve, based on a mixture model. Estimation is carried out through an EM algorithm. Some comparisons are made to the Hastie-Stuetzle definition.     

Picking the Winners: Politician vs. Voter Predictions of Two Controversial Ballot Measures

Abstract Both politicians and voters were asked to predict outcomesof two Oregon ballot measures in 1982. As expected, politicians'predictions always were closer to the mark than voters' were.Further, voters showed stronger signs of wishful thinking (the"Looking-Glass effect") in their predictions than did politicians.Using published preelection polls apparently improved politicians'accuracy in 1982, as well as voters' accuracy in a separate1984 survey. No other sources of data improved predictive accuracy.Findings have implications for theories of representative governmentand are consistent with a new theory of public opinion.     

Book reviews

Nathan Glazer Ethnic Dilemmas Harvard, Harvard University Press. 1985

Giddens, Anthony The Constitution of Society, Berkeley, University of California, 1985, pp.XXXVII, 402. Notes, glossary, diagrams, bibliographic notes and index.

Jeremy Rifkin Declaration of a Heretic. Boston. London, Melbourne and Henley, Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1985, pp.X,140.

Ted Benton The Rise and Fall of Structural Marxism: Althusser and his Influence, New York, St.Martin's Press, 1984, pp. VII,259.

Raymond L. Garthoff Détente and Confrontation Washington, The Brookings Institution, 1985, pp.XVI,1126.

Joseph J. Collins The Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan. A Study in the Use of Force in Soviet Foreign Policy, Massachusetts/Toronto, D.C. Heath and Company/Lexington, 1986, pp. XV, 195.

Jan Shipps Mormonism: The Story of a New Religious Tradition, Chicago, University of Illinois Press, 1985, pp.211.

Robert Jay Lifton Home from the War: Vietnam Veterans: Neither Victims nor Executioners, New York, Basic Books, 1985, pp.478     

Estimating the National High School Dropout Rate

Recent interest has focused on the high school dropout rate as one indicator of the national education picture. Empirical estimates of this "rate" vary considerably, because these estimates are poorly defined. This article reviews some of the current measures and presents a new measure of the high school dropout rate--the proportion of high school students who drop out in a defined period of time (1 year). The estimates show that the national yearly high school dropout rate was about the same in 1985 as it was in 1968. Improvement has occurred, however, since 1968 for specific racial groups as well as for some grade levels.     

Reconciling commodities and personal relations in industrial society

Conclusions I began this article with Colin Campbell's lament about the productionist bias in sociology and the related point that most sociologists concerned with consumption have ignored private meanings and small-scale structures in favor of public meanings and large-scale structures. This article calls attention to and builds on an emerging alternative approach to what happens after production, using an understanding of the social nature of objects that springs from Marcel Mauss's distinction between gifts and commodities.Mauss's model directs attention to the conflict in industrial societies between the two realms of commodity exchange and gift exchange, which I have cast as the conflict between the world of work and the world of family, and as the contrast between commodities and possessions. Thus, the model directs attention to the fact that objects are not simply transformed in production and displayed in consumption. However important these facts may be for understanding objects and society, they do not exhaust the important ways that people experience, use, and think about the objects that surround them. In particular, Mauss's model throws into relief the problematic nature of the objects that surround us and that we use in our social relations. And in doing so it directs attention to the ways that people try to reconstruct and redefine those objects by transforming them into personal possessions. This transformation makes objects acquired as commodities suitable for gift transactions, and hence suitable for the key task of recreating social relationships and social identities, the task of creating, not merely defining, who we are and how we are related to each other.Although the Maussian model addresses many of the links between people in the worlds of work and the home, and many of the ways that objects are part of these links, I am concerned here primarily with the ways that people can appropriate commodities in the process of purchase: shopping. This concern with shopping points out the social significance of retail trade, which I take to include advertising and shopping. This is not simply a passive conduit between production and consumption. Instead, it is an important point at which objects begin to leave the realm of work, commodities, and commodity relations and enter the realm of home, possessions, and gift relations. Shopping is an ubiquitous activity in industrial society and one that is highly significant culturally: we spend vast amounts of time, energy, money, and attention on it. Doubtless part of the reason for this is utilitarian, for we need to buy to live, but it would be foolish to reduce the significance of shopping to some combination of the need of individuals to acquire in order to survive and the need of companies to generate demand in order to profit. Thus, retail trade needs to be seen as well as a set of relations and transactions between seller and buyer that define and are defined by the objects and services involved, their history, and their future. My focus on purchasing food in supermarkets has the advantage of throwing into relief the problem of appropriation, because of the impersonality of object and social relations in large, self-service supermarkets. However, the very extremity of this example can create a false impression. As I noted, in other forms of shopping the social relations between buyer and seller, like the social identity of objects, can be more personal. This personality can be real, as when buyer and seller know each other or where the object is hand-made or even unique. Alternatively, it can be more purely symbolic, as when the selling company touts itself or its employees as friendly and caring or where the manufacturer advertises the personal nature of its commodities. In some cases, indeed, the manufacturing or trading company can present itself in such a way that the company itself becomes the person with whom the purchaser transacts. In addition, because of the focus on the appropriation of commodities in purchasing, I have touched only briefly on production and the world of work more generally. As does life at home, so life at work involves the transaction of objects and labor. Relations at work, then, will shape and be shaped by the nature of what is transacted. Co-workers who transact things that are more clearly stamped with their own identity, as among service workers and craft producers, will likely have more personal relations with fellow workers than will those who transact things that are themselves relatively impersonal, as in assembly-line production. This variability in the objects and relations at work suggests that people will have diverse understandings of work, and hence of manufactured objects more generally, which will affect the need they feel to appropriate commodities. In all, though, the point of this article is simple. People use objects to create and recreate personal social identities and relationships, and in industrial capitalist societies these objects are likely to be produced and purchased as commodities and understood as manufactures in Miller's sense. Our experience with and understanding of the production and sale of objects will affect the way we use them in transactions that create and recreate social identity and relationship, and will affect our understanding of the social identities and relationships that are created and recreated. Thus, the objects that people use in social relationships mediate between realms of economy and society, between the public realms where those objects are produced and distributed, and the private realms where those objects are transacted as part of social reproduction. The fact of this mediation and its effects on people's understanding of objects and social relations deserve careful attention.

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