A Study of a Total Social Services Care Population and its Inter-Agency Shared Care Populations

There are very few large population studies and little informationabout the characteristics of social services populations andthe inter-agency populations that social services departmentsshare with other agencies. This study fills this gap. It examinesa total social services adult care population, excluding residentialcare homes (N = 19,461) in the context of its general co-terminoushealth authority population (N = 646,239). Approximately two-thirds(61 per cent) of the social services population were women,compared to the health authority population of 51 per cent.Sixty-two per cent were over sixty-five years compared to 23per cent of the health authority. Age groupings and genderedpatterns of service use are then identified for different caregroups. The study then examines care populations shared betweensocial services and other agencies, identifying the amount ofshared care and the characteristics of specific shared caresubgroups. Forty-two per cent of the social services populationwere shared with the community health trust and 19 per centwith the mental health trust. The proportion of the social servicespopulation in contact with Criminal Justice and accident andemergency was nearly twice that in the overall health authoritypopulation. The limitations of these data are examined and thepotential of this method to inform inter-agency planning andshared care is discussed.     

Assessing uncertain ventures using experts' judgments in the form of subjective probabilities

The paper deals with a procedure known as ASPRO which has been successfull applied at Shell Oil Company. Section II addresses general problems encountered in using subjective assessment procedures. Section III introduces ASPRO's decomposition process which is designed to alleviate some of the problems. The decomposition process produces a questionnaire, the answers to which are the inputs to the ASPRO assessment procedure. Examples of the questionnaire for assessing political risks to oil investment ventures and analyzing new product sectors are given. Section IV explains how the respondents assess the component parts, and Section V outlines the mechanical procedures which are used to combine the assessments. Examples of how ASPRO's output can be used to communicate the respondents' quantified judgments are given in Section VI. Conclusions are in Section VII.     

杂交中稻超多蘖壮秧少穴高产栽培研究——Ⅰ:超多蘖壮秧少穴栽培杂交中稻的生育动态及经济性状

杂交中稻超多蘖壮秧少穴栽培是一项旨在进一步提高杂交中稻产量水平和降低生产成本的新型栽培技术。其核心是在秧田培育出单株苗数达15苗左右的超多蘖壮秧而在本田大幅度降低单位面积的栽插穴数,充分利用杂交稻的个体生理优势和少穴栽培的稻田环境优势达到高产高效。1991年在三台县西平镇以汕优63为材料进行了多重复的试验,比较了6种少穴栽培和常规栽培水稻的生育动态、经济性状和产量。结果表明,与常规栽培相比,少穴栽培可通过杂交中稻强大的分蘖优势来保证田间适宜的总苗数,同时能有效地控制群体最高苗,并且在此基础上争取多粒大穗。无论每穴单株双株,每公顷植90.0千穴、112.5千穴、135.0千穴和157.5千穴都可比常规穴数(每公顷245.5千穴)栽培显著增产。其中,每穴单株以每公顷112.5千穴产量最高,双株以每公顷135.0千穴最高。     

Within-Animal Variation as an Indication of the Minimal Magnitude of the Critical Effect Size for Continuous Toxicological Parameters Applicable in the Benchmark Dose Approach

In this study, the within-animal variation in routinely studied continuous toxicological parameters was estimated from temporal fluctuations in individual healthy nonexposed animals. Assuming that these fluctuations are nonadverse, this within-animal variation may be indicative of the minimal magnitude of the critical effect size (CES). The CES is defined as the breaking point between adverse and nonadverse changes in a continuous toxicological parameter, at the level of the individual organism. The total variation in the data from individual nonexposed animals was divided in variation parts due to known factors (differences in sex, animal, and day) and a residual variation, by means of analysis of variance. Using the residual variation and the estimated analytical measurement error of a toxicological parameter, the within-animal variation can be estimated. The data showed within-animal variations ranging between 0.6% and 34% for different clinical chemistry and hematological parameters in 90-day rat studies. This indicates that different (minimal) CES values may be applicable for different parameters.     

Information technology, networks and community voices

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have altered the form and structure of urban centres across the globe. Scholars suggest that hybrid spaces of electronic networks and urban sites herald the future of city planning, representing a fluidity of material place and cyberspace that transforms patterns of city life. This project examines the regenerative capabilities of ICTs in decaying urban neighbourhoods that link virtual networks of community participation and expression with the physical presence of community media centres. Using symbolic interactionism and qualitative interviews, this research suggests that inner-city residents find ICTs to be a key element in neighbourhood and community revitalization. Overall, this research considers the notion that ICTs are integral components of contemporary urban planning.     

Does it matter where I live in Western Europe?

Regional differentials in life expectancy at birth during the 1980s in Belgium, The Netherlands and some parts of the former Federal Republic of Germany are presented and commented upon. Life expectancy at birth during the 1980s was highest in The Netherlands, and lowest in some parts of southern Belgium. Substantial differentials existed in 1980, particularly because of differential mortality due to diseases of the circulatory system, lung cancer, breast cancer, motor vehicle accidents and suicide. These differentials persisted throughout the 1980s, but gradually converged. Gains in life expectancy were mainly due to declining cardiovascular and cerebrovascular mortality. Sharp and persistent differentials between border regions in the study area point to societal and cultural forces bringing about dividing lines between relatively homogeneous mortality profiles.On présente et commente ici les différences d'espérance de vie à la naissance observées durant les années 1980 en Belgique, en Hollande et dans certaines parties de l'ancienne RFA. L'espérance de vie à la naissance était la plus élevée en Hollande et la plus basse dans certaines parties du sud de la Belgique. Des différences importantes existaient en 1980, particulièrement liées à la mortalité différentielle due aux maladies de l'appareil circulatoire, au cancer du poumon et du sein, aux accidents de véhicules à moteur et au suicide. Ces différences diminuent graduellement au cours des années 1980, mais persistent toujours. Les gains d'espérance de vie ont été surtout dus à un déclin de la mortalité cardiovasculaire et cérébrovasculaire. Des différences importantes qui subsistent toujours entre régions frontières signalent des effets sociaux et culturels qui entraînent des lignes de démarcation entre des profils de mortalité relativement homogènes.     

Living Options for Physically Disabled Adults: A Review

Over the last 20 years changing social attitudes towards disabled people and their own burgeoning aspirations have been reflected in every aspect of living arrangements. The United Kingdom literature is reviewed with reference to influences from Northern Europe and the U.S.A. Demand is increasing for wide spread availability of a range of options; implications for the social services are discussed.     

Group egoism; investigating collective action and individual rationality

The paper discusses rationality at two levels. According to a common opinion the key to rationality at the group level is a willingness to contribute unselfishly at the individual level. I claim that even when rationality at the individual level is denied, it is often achieved by social punishment. The difficulty to organize a social project is exaggerated. The relative ease of implementing individual rationality has the disadvantage of frequently establishing and maintaining social order that, despite some enthusiastic proponents, fails to deliver rationality at the group level.