Reference points for getting a target in a soccer competition. A probabilistic model with applications to the Spanish and English Premier League

We model the probabilities that a soccer team gets a target, for example, to play the Champions League, the UEFA Europa League or preserve the category. Taking into account the points won until de mth matchday of the competition, when the winter transfer window is closed. We give closed-form expressions for the probabilities of reaching the goals. We also introduce a risk measure which is going to give us the smallest initial points needed to ensure that the probability of getting the target is larger than a given level.     

Management innovation,pro-innovation organisational culture and enterprise performance: testing the mediation effect

The interest in management innovation (MI) is growing and the conviction about its significant role in boosting an enterprise’s competitive advantage and performance has recently gained ground. The studies on MI and its relationships with enterprise performance, which are relatively scarce in literature, indicate the complexity of these relationships. This inspired us to propose the management innovation construct and its operationalisation, which allowed for the empirical verification of the relationships between management innovation and enterprise performance. Simultaneously, we adopted the hypothesis on the mediating role of pro-innovation organisational culture. The aim of this article, therefore, is to study the relationships between MI and enterprise performance as well as to determine what role is played by pro-innovation organisational culture in these relationships. In order to do that, we conducted a survey of 301 companies based in Poland. Our research results confirmed the existence of relationships between management innovation and enterprise performance in the survey sample, although they were not very strong. Additionally, the hypothesis about the mediating role of organisational culture was also partially supported. The results of our study enrich the knowledge about the role of MI in stimulating enterprise performance and the role of pro-innovation organisational culture. We also discuss the implications for further research and management practice.     

On the equivalence of definitions for regular fractions of mixed-level factorial designs

The notion of regularity for fractional factorial designs was originally defined only for two-level factorial designs. Recently, rather different definitions for regular fractions of mixed-level factorial designs have been proposed by Collombier [1996. Plans d’Expérience Factoriels. Springer, Berlin], Wu and Hamada [2000. Experiments. Wiley, New York] and Pistone and Rogantin [2008. Indicator function and complex coding for mixed fractional factorial designs. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 138, 787–802]. In this paper we prove that, surprisingly, these definitions are equivalent. The proof of equivalence relies heavily on the character theory of finite Abelian groups. The group-theoretic framework provides a unified approach to deal with mixed-level factorial designs and treat symmetric factorial designs as a special case. We show how within this framework each regular fraction is uniquely characterized by a defining relation as for two-level factorial designs. The framework also allows us to extend the result that every regular fraction is an orthogonal array of a strength that is related to its resolution, as stated in Dey and Mukerjee [1999. Fractional Factorial Plans. Wiley, New York] to mixed-level factorial designs.     

Closing the Loophole: A Case Study of Organizing for More Equitable and Affordable Access to Health Care in San Francisco

This paper presents in-depth case study of a successful hybrid political and community organizing campaign to ensure equitable access to health care through the perspective of a grassroots San Francisco community-based organization, the Chinese Progressive Association (CPA), which has been organizing low-income Chinese immigrants for over four decades. First, it outlines the Health Care Security Ordinance (HCSO), which, since its passage in 2006, has established a near-universal health care access program, helping to make health care accessible and affordable to individuals living and working in San Francisco. Then it presents the campaign to save the HCSO, focusing on CPA’s participation in the HCSO coalition. Finally, it discusses health care as it relates to the San Francisco’s affordability crisis and the political economic context in which it is taking place. Despite the limitations inherent in small case studies like this one, it nevertheless provides a valuable opportunity to better understand how one politically progressive city attempted to address the problem of grossly inequitable health care access through the lens of community organizing, advocacy, and coalition building. San Francisco, like many major American cities today, is being confronted with rapid gentrification and growing economic inequality—the backdrop to the HCSO. Through innovative experiments in social responsibility like the HCSO, however, the city has made leaps in health care access. It concludes with lessons learned from local organizing and advocacy to save the HCSO as these may inform other local efforts to promote health care for all.     

On the use of priors in goodness‐of‐fit tests

Priors are introduced into goodness‐of‐fit tests, both for unknown parameters in the tested distribution and on the alternative density. Neyman–Pearson theory leads to the test with the highest expected power. To make the test practical, we seek priors that make it likely a priori that the power will be larger than the level of the test but not too close to one. As a result, priors are sample size dependent. We explore this procedure in particular for priors that are defined via a Gaussian process approximation for the logarithm of the alternative density. In the case of testing for the uniform distribution, we show that the optimal test is of the U‐statistic type and establish limiting distributions for the optimal test statistic, both under the null hypothesis and averaged over the alternative hypotheses. The optimal test statistic is shown to be of the Cramér–von Mises type for specific choices of the Gaussian process involved. The methodology when parameters in the tested distribution are unknown is discussed and illustrated in the case of testing for the von Mises distribution. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 47: 560–579; 2019 © 2019 Statistical Society of Canada     

A Novel Approach to Chemical Mixture Risk Assessment—Linking Data from Population‐Based Epidemiology and Experimental Animal Tests

Humans are continuously exposed to chemicals with suspected or proven endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs). Risk management of EDCs presents a major unmet challenge because the available data for adverse health effects are generated by examining one compound at a time, whereas real‐life exposures are to mixtures of chemicals. In this work, we integrate epidemiological and experimental evidence toward a whole mixture strategy for risk assessment. To illustrate, we conduct the following four steps in a case study: (1) identification of single EDCs (“bad actors”)—measured in prenatal blood/urine in the SELMA study—that are associated with a shorter anogenital distance (AGD) in baby boys; (2) definition and construction of a “typical” mixture consisting of the “bad actors” identified in Step 1; (3) experimentally testing this mixture in an in vivo animal model to estimate a dose–response relationship and determine a point of departure (i.e., reference dose [RfD]) associated with an adverse health outcome; and (4) use a statistical measure of “sufficient similarity” to compare the experimental RfD (from Step 3) to the exposure measured in the human population and generate a “similar mixture risk indicator” (SMRI). The objective of this exercise is to generate a proof of concept for the systematic integration of epidemiological and experimental evidence with mixture risk assessment strategies. Using a whole mixture approach, we could find a higher rate of pregnant women under risk (13%) when comparing with the data from more traditional models of additivity (3%), or a compound‐by‐compound strategy (1.6%).     

Urban or rural fragments: which soil use in forest surroundings induces greater litter deposition?

Urban Ecosystems - The soil use in surroundings of forest remnants, as well as, variations in seasonality and rainfall totals from each year might influence the composition, structure, and...     

Estimating Listeria monocytogenes Growth in Ready-to-Eat Chicken Salad Using a Challenge Test for Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment

Currently, there is a growing preference for convenience food products, such as ready-to-eat (RTE) foods, associated with long refrigerated shelf-lives, not requiring a heat treatment prior to consumption. Because Listeria monocytogenes is able to grow at refrigeration temperatures, inconsistent temperatures during production, distribution, and at consumer's household may allow for the pathogen to thrive, reaching unsafe limits. L. monocytogenes is the causative agent of listeriosis, a rare but severe human illness, with high fatality rates, transmitted almost exclusively by food consumption. With the aim of assessing the quantitative microbial risk of L. monocytogenes in RTE chicken salads, a challenge test was performed. Salads were inoculated with a three-strain mixture of cold-adapted L. monocytogenes and stored at 4, 12, and 16 °C for eight days. Results revealed that the salad was able to support L. monocytogenes’ growth, even at refrigeration temperatures. The Baranyi primary model was fitted to microbiological data to estimate the pathogen's growth kinetic parameters. Temperature effect on the maximum specific growth rate (μ_max) was modeled using a square-root-type model. Storage temperature significantly influenced μ_max of L. monocytogenes (p < 0.05). These predicted growth models for L. monocytogenes were subsequently used to develop a quantitative microbial risk assessment, estimating a median number of 0.00008726 listeriosis cases per year linked to the consumption of these RTE salads. Sensitivity analysis considering different time–temperature scenarios indicated a very low median risk per portion (<−7 log), even if the assessed RTE chicken salad was kept in abuse storage conditions.     

Giving to Friends,Classmates, and Strangers in Adolescence

This study examined how perspective taking and sensitivity to social rewards predict giving to friends, classmates, and strangers in adolescence. Five hundred and twenty adolescents aged 12–17 years completed questionnaires on perspective taking and social rewards and played three Dictator Games in which they divided coins between themselves and a friend, classmate, and stranger. We found that, irrespective of age, adolescents donated most to a friend, less to their classmate, and least to a stranger, and females donated more than males. Individual differences in perspective taking and social reward sensitivity moderated how much adolescents donated, especially to strangers. These findings suggest that perspective taking and sensitivity to social rewards influence giving behavior in adolescence, especially to unknown others.