Bayesian Analysis of an Unobserved-Component Time Series Model of GDP With Markov-Switching and Time-Varying Growths

We propose an unobserved-component time series model of gross domestic product that includes Markov switching as an unobserved component. In addition to a trend component, the model has two time-varying drift components. One drift represents the expected rate of growth during recession; the other drift represents the expected rate during expansion. Estimates indicate a substantial decline in the latter annual rate for the United States from 6.4% in 1950 to 3.6% by 1990. We have employed weak priors based on prewar data. The estimation makes use of the Gibbs sampler and the Metropolis algorithm.     

‘James always hangs out here’: making space for place in studying masculinities at school

All learning is emplaced. It happens somewhere and it involves material things. It is located and situated. This paper focuses on spaces and places outside of the classroom where lessons about ‘self’ and ‘other’ are learnt. Drawing on recent research (‘Space, place and the making of masculinities in primary schools in Ireland’, O Donoghue, Journal of Curriculum and Pedagogy, 2006, volume 3), the paper analyses the stories/narratives of a group of ten and eleven year old boys, stories that tell of how they learn to speak, act and perform masculinities in school spaces and places. These performances, ‘naturalized’ through repetition and regulation, happen in spaces that exert significant effects on boys by opening up/closing off certain behavioural possibilities. The paper makes visible processes of doing and re/presenting research into masculinities and schooling in, with and through art. It argues that a research approach drawing on theories and processes of contemporary art practice offers much for conceptualizing, doing and representing research and provides opportunities that other research methods close off.     

Media competition and information disclosure

This paper analyzes an election game where self-interested politicians can exploit the lack of information that citizens have about candidates’ preferred policies in order to pursue their own agendas. In such a setup, we analyze the incentives of newspapers to acquire costly information and that of politicians to make informative speeches, as well as how competition among the media affects such incentives. We show that the higher the number of potential readers and/or the lower the cost of investigating, the more the candidates tend to reveal their motives. We also show that the readers’ purchasing habits play a crucial role in the model. More specifically, we show that if readers always buy a newspaper, media competition favors information disclosure; whereas if they are opportunistic and just buy a newspaper in case news are uncovered, competition is not so desirable. An erratum to this article can be found at     

‘Becoming familiar with a world’: a relational view of socialization

Ethnographic data have frequently been used to examine socialization, but rarely to ground theories of socialization. This paper is an exception. Interest in indigenous representations emerging in situations involving socialization has led to the building of a relational model of socialization, which contrasts with mainstream developmental models of this phenomenon. Socialization is generally defined in terms of cultural learning, the internalization of culture or culture acquisition, that is in terms of the individual's development. The present paper defines it in terms of becoming familiar with a new ‘world’, and a series of changes affecting the structure of the relationship between the human agent and this new world. These structural changes include immersion in a world that is at first strange; subjection to the authority of this world on the basis of acceptance of this authority; and involvement in the world's everyday life structures and activities through doing.     

Regression‐type models for extremal dependence

We propose a vector generalized additive modeling framework for taking into account the effect of covariates on angular density functions in a multivariate extreme value context. The proposed methods are tailored for settings where the dependence between extreme values may change according to covariates. We devise a maximum penalized log‐likelihood estimator, discuss details of the estimation procedure, and derive its consistency and asymptotic normality. The simulation study suggests that the proposed methods perform well in a wealth of simulation scenarios by accurately recovering the true covariate‐adjusted angular density. Our empirical analysis reveals relevant dynamics of the dependence between extreme air temperatures in two alpine resorts during the winter season.     

Organizational wisdom practices and firm product innovation

Review of Managerial Science - The manner in which organizational wisdom-related variables or practices (e.g., reasoning, intuition, virtue, prudence, and aesthetics) are related to firm product...     

《诗》“深则厉,浅则揭”解诂

从语言、文字、文化与桥梁发展史多角度考察 ,指出 :“厉 (、 )”是水中安置的石蹬 ,便于人们履石渡水 ;“揭”指高举着衣服渡水。从桥梁发展史来看 ,履石渡水的“厉”是“桥”的前身。“深则厉 ,浅则揭”是指遇水深处 ,本当揭衣而渡 ,却立石于水中 ,履石跨水 ;遇水浅处 ,本该履石渡水 ,却脱下衣服 ,用手举着渡水     

Bringing “A Different Femininity”: Immigrant Women from Bulgaria and Local Co-workers on a Factory Floor in Turkey

Qualitative Sociology - This article draws on life-course interviews with a group of Turkish immigrant women from socialist Bulgaria and locals who shared the same factory floor for approximately...     

Predicting the Daily Covariance Matrix for S&P 100 Stocks Using Intraday Data—But Which Frequency to Use?

This article investigates the merits of high-frequency intraday data when forming mean-variance efficient stock portfolios with daily rebalancing from the individual constituents of the S&P 100 index. We focus on the issue of determining the optimal sampling frequency as judged by the performance of these portfolios. The optimal sampling frequency ranges between 30 and 65 minutes, considerably lower than the popular five-minute frequency, which typically is motivated by the aim of striking a balance between the variance and bias in covariance matrix estimates due to market microstructure effects such as non-synchronous trading and bid-ask bounce. Bias-correction procedures, based on combining low-frequency and high-frequency covariance matrix estimates and on the addition of leads and lags do not substantially affect the optimal sampling frequency or the portfolio performance. Our findings are also robust to the presence of transaction costs and to the portfolio rebalancing frequency.