The Economic Efficiency of Sampling Size: The Case of Beef Trim

The economically optimal sample size in a food safety test balances the marginal costs and marginal benefits of increasing the sample size. We provide a method for selecting the sample size when testing beef trim for Escherichia coli O157:H7 that equates the averted costs of recalls and health damages from contaminated meats sold to consumers with the increased costs of testing while allowing for uncertainty about the underlying prevalence rates of contamination. Using simulations, we show that, in most cases, the optimal sample size is larger than the current sample size of 60 and, in some cases, it exceeds 120. Moreover, lots with a lower prevalence rate have a higher expected damage because contamination is more difficult to detect. Our simulations indicate that these lots have a higher optimal sampling rate.     

A Non-parametric Test for Generalized First-order Autoregressive Models

We derive a non-parametric test for testing the presence of V(X_i,ε_i) in the non-parametric first-order autoregressive model X_i+1=T(X_i)+V(X_i,ε_i)+U(X_i)ε_i+1, where the function T(x) is assumed known. The test is constructed as a functional of a basic process for which we establish a weak invariance principle, under the null hypothesis and under stationarity and mixing assumptions. Bounds for the local and non-local powers are provided under a condition which ensures that the power tends to one as the sample size tends to infinity.The testing procedure can be applied, e.g. to bilinear models, ARCH models, EXPAR models and to some other uncommon models. Our results confirm the robustness of the test constructed in Ngatchou Wandji (1995) and in Diebolt & Ngatchou Wandji (1995).     

The Structure of Mental Health: Higher-Order Confirmatory Factor Analyses of Psychological Distress and Well-Being Measures

Social Indicators Research - This paper addresses the question of whether psychological distress and subjective well-being are the opposite poles of the same axis of mental health or independent...     

Assessment of the Effectiveness of Radon Screening Programs in Reducing Lung Cancer Mortality

The present study was aimed at assessing the health consequences of the presence of radon in Quebec homes and the possible impact of various screening programs on lung cancer mortality. Lung cancer risk due to this radioactive gas was estimated according to the cancer risk model developed by the Sixth Committee on Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiations. Objective data on residential radon exposure, population mobility, and tobacco use in the study population were integrated into a Monte‐Carlo‐type model. Participation rates to radon screening programs were estimated from published data. According to the model used, approximately 10% of deaths due to lung cancer are attributable to residential radon exposure on a yearly basis in Quebec. In the long term, the promotion of a universal screening program would prevent less than one death/year on a province‐wide scale (0.8 case; IC 99%: –3.6 to 5.2 cases/year), for an overall reduction of 0.19% in radon‐related mortality. Reductions in mortality due to radon by (1) the implementation of a targeted screening program in the region with the highest concentrations, (2) the promotion of screening on a local basis with financial support, or (3) the realization of systematic investigations in primary and secondary schools would increase to 1%, 14%, and 16.4%, respectively, in the each of the populations targeted by these scenarios. Other than the battle against tobacco use, radon screening in public buildings thus currently appears as the most promising screening policy for reducing radon‐related lung cancer.     

Economic Modeling Triggers More Efficient Planning: An Experimental Justification

Consider a firm as an organization that needs to efficiently coordinate several specialized departments in an uncertain environment. Decision making involves collective planning sessions and decentralized operational processes. In this setting this paper explores the role of economic modeling through an experimental game. Results support the idea that economic modeling favors higher performance. Economic modeling facilitates the emergence of common knowledge and the decomposition of a group decision problem into individual decision problems that are meaningfully interrelated. This paper was presented at the Porquerolles Summer School on Cognitive Sciences, September 2001.     

西方理性主义时代的解释学——在语法和批判之间

早在理性时代和启蒙时代(17、18世纪),西方解释学的哲学化进程就迈出了重要的一步,而不是等到施莱尔马赫出现以后。理性主义时代的解释学集中体现在丹豪尔的普遍解释学、克拉登尼乌斯的教育解释学、迈耶尔的符号解释学以及宗教的系统内的虔信派的情感和应用的解释学。它们都从不同的角度突出了解释学的普遍性,具有深刻的时代特点。     

Alternate adjustments to external shocks in Hungary

A multisector computable general equilibrium model is used to evaluate Hungary's response to the external price shocks in the 1970s. The model incorporates characteristics of Hungary's reformed socialist economy. The results show that although the deterioration in terms of trade was important, the policies of insulation of the economy and increases in investment had a much larger detrimental impact on the trade balance. The existence of planned CMEA trade reduced the effects of the price shocks on the trade deficit. Export promotion by means of higher export subsidies would not have been effective to reduce the trade deficit in Hungary.