心理资本与农民工工资收入的相互影响——以浙江省为例

利用来自浙江省微观层面农民工调查的数据,采用联立方程计量方法,本文实证考察了心理资本与农民工工资收入之间的相互关系。结果表明,心理资本与农民工工资收入之间存在联立性。心理资本对农民工工资水平产生了正向的显著影响,同时相对工资水平也显著影响了农民工的心理资本。人力资本(健康状况和教育年限)不仅对农民工的收入获得具有直接效应,而且还可以通过影响农民工的心理资本对其工资水平产生间接效应。     

Housing price, elderly dependency and fertility behaviour

Sustaining declines in fertility have increasingly become an alarming issue in most of the world economies. Many governments have been making enormous efforts to alleviate such intertwined problems as falling fertility and soaring elderly dependency. What really makes fertility rates fall? Does housing price have a role (as many argue)? Most researchers addressed this issue from a demographic perspective, but have yet to fully unravel the mystery of human fertility behaviour. The paper aims to investigate the novel linkages between birth rate, housing price and elderly dependency, with the case of Hong Kong. It employs two key methods: (i) the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to co-integration procedure and (ii) Granger causality, to disentangle the complicated relationships, long-run and short-run. The empirical results show that a 1 percent increase in housing prices and elderly leads to 0.52% and 1.65% decreases in birth rate respectively. Besides, both housing price and elderly dependency Granger cause birth rate in the long-run. Our findings not only shed light on fertility behaviour, but also provide implications for policy change. That is particularly relevant to those economies whose low fertility situations need to be ameliorated.     

A Semi‐parametric Transformation Frailty Model for Semi‐competing Risks Survival Data

In the analysis of semi‐competing risks data interest lies in estimation and inference with respect to a so‐called non‐terminal event, the observation of which is subject to a terminal event. Multi‐state models are commonly used to analyse such data, with covariate effects on the transition/intensity functions typically specified via the Cox model and dependence between the non‐terminal and terminal events specified, in part, by a unit‐specific shared frailty term. To ensure identifiability, the frailties are typically assumed to arise from a parametric distribution, specifically a Gamma distribution with mean 1.0 and variance, say, σ². When the frailty distribution is misspecified, however, the resulting estimator is not guaranteed to be consistent, with the extent of asymptotic bias depending on the discrepancy between the assumed and true frailty distributions. In this paper, we propose a novel class of transformation models for semi‐competing risks analysis that permit the non‐parametric specification of the frailty distribution. To ensure identifiability, the class restricts to parametric specifications of the transformation and the error distribution; the latter are flexible, however, and cover a broad range of possible specifications. We also derive the semi‐parametric efficient score under the complete data setting and propose a non‐parametric score imputation method to handle right censoring; consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimators is derived and small‐sample operating characteristics evaluated via simulation. Although the proposed semi‐parametric transformation model and non‐parametric score imputation method are motivated by the analysis of semi‐competing risks data, they are broadly applicable to any analysis of multivariate time‐to‐event outcomes in which a unit‐specific shared frailty is used to account for correlation. Finally, the proposed model and estimation procedures are applied to a study of hospital readmission among patients diagnosed with pancreatic cancer.     

Non-parametric tests for the tail equivalence via empirical likelihood

In this paper, the problem of whether the left tail and the right tail of a distribution share the same extreme value index (EVI) is addressed and we propose two different test statistics. The first one is based on the result of the joint asymptotic normality of the two Hill estimators for the EVIs of both tails. And therefore, we can construct a quotient-type test statistic, which is asymptotic χ²(1) distributed after some standardization. The second test statistic proposed in this paper is inspired by the two-sample empirical likelihood methodology, and we prove its non parametric version of Wilk’s theorem. At last, we compare the efficiencies of our two test statistics and the maximum likelihood (ML) ratio test statistic proposed by Jondeau and Rockinger (2003 Jondeau, E., Rockinger, M. (2003). Testing for differences in the tails of stock-market returns. J. Empirical Finance 10:559–581.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) in terms of empirical first type error and power through a number of simulation studies, which indicate that the performance of the ML ratio test statistic is worse than our two test statistics in most cases.     

Multi-dimensional functional principal component analysis

Functional principal component analysis is one of the most commonly employed approaches in functional and longitudinal data analysis and we extend it to analyze functional/longitudinal data observed on a general d-dimensional domain. The computational issues emerging in the extension are fully addressed with our proposed solutions. The local linear smoothing technique is employed to perform estimation because of its capabilities of performing large-scale smoothing and of handling data with different sampling schemes (possibly on irregular domain) in addition to its nice theoretical properties. Besides taking the fast Fourier transform strategy in smoothing, the modern GPGPU (general-purpose computing on graphics processing units) architecture is applied to perform parallel computation to save computation time. To resolve the out-of-memory issue due to large-scale data, the random projection procedure is applied in the eigendecomposition step. We show that the proposed estimators can achieve the classical nonparametric rates for longitudinal data and the optimal convergence rates for functional data if the number of observations per sample is of the order \((n/ \log n)^{d/4}\). Finally, the performance of our approach is demonstrated with simulation studies and the fine particulate matter (PM 2.5) data measured in Taiwan.     

Perception of and reactions to job insecurity: The buffering effect of secure attachment

By bridging attachment theory and cognitive appraisal theory, this study explored the moderating role of secure attachment in one’s perception of (i.e. primary appraisal) and reactions to (i.e. secondary appraisal) job insecurity. Study 1 used individual-level data collected from employees nested in 42 states in the US and state-level unemployment rate derived from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. I found that secure attachment attenuated the negative impact of state-level unemployment rate on individual job insecurity. In Study 2 with data collected at two time points, I found that secure attachment mitigated the negative, lagged outcome of job insecurity on job satisfaction (but not affective commitment). Taken together, I found that secure attachment enabled individuals to positively appraise state-level unemployment rate and constructively cope with job insecurity. Results of both studies converge to support the proposed buffering role of secure attachment in one’s perception of and reactions to job insecurity.     

朝核问题与中国的战略选择

美朝双方在安全与战略利益以及目标诉求上存在的尖锐矛盾,最终使朝鲜走上了发展核武器之路.朝鲜拥有核武器不仅违背中国及周边大国对朝鲜半岛的基本原则,还为日本发展军事力量提供了借口,同时也为美国军事打击朝鲜创造了可能性.这对与朝鲜咫尺相邻的中国而言,国家安全利益受到严重威胁,因此中国坚决反对朝鲜拥有核武器,并投票赞成联合国安理会对朝鲜的有关决议,中朝关系开始出现一些微妙的变化.为和平解决朝核问题,中国始终积极推动六方会谈持续进行,承担起了国际社会所期望的负责任的大国重任.毋庸置疑,未来中朝两国还会继续保持和发展传统友谊.     

社会学理论本土化的反思

自社会学创立之初,中国也随后积极地加入了社会学的学科研究行列中,并在当时取得了相当大的成效.由于新中国发展过程中的曲折性,国内的社会学研究始终与世界的主流研究存在着一定的差距.在国内三代社会学家努力提倡的"社会学本土化"愿望中,社会学真正的本土化标志应该在于理论的本土化.但目前中国的理论研究还处于起步阶段,在历史发展的境遇和学科理论发展的逻辑中寻找突破口,应是新时期我们社会学理论本土化的反思新路径.     

王家大院建筑的传统文化特色

王家大院是晋商文化与官商文化在民居建筑中的完美体现,是融我国建筑南北之风以及多种美学理论于一体的山西民居建筑的典型代表,具有浓郁的中国传统文化特色。王家大院建筑所特有的文化内涵可观、可赏、可读,是自古以来人们对＂家＂之载体追求的高水平体现。     

思维与翻译

翻译表面上是一种语言转换活动,其本质却是一项思维活动。逻辑思维、形象思维和灵感思维对于翻译至关重要,两者有着密切的关系。