基于超总体模型的设计效应分解

本文基于超总体模型研究抽样调查中设计效应的计算问题。首先以随机效应模型为基础，明确了简单随机、二阶段、不等概率和分层抽样对应的超总体模型，进而通过所给模型推导出分层、类集、加权单因素设计效应的计算公式和多因素组合的设计效应计算公式并给出了对应估计量，公式表明：多因素同时存在的组合设计效应等于对应单因素设计效应的乘积。最后，对设计效应的理论值、估计值和真实值之间的关系进行了蒙特卡洛仿真，并利用相对偏倚、相对均方误进行了评价。本文的研究，对复杂抽样设计中正确计算、使用设计效应具有指导意义。     

Household time activities,food waste,and diet quality: the impact of non-marginal changes due to COVID-19

Review of Economics of the Household - In early 2020, a novel coronavirus quickly spread across the globe. In response to the rapidly increasing number of confirmed U.S. cases, state and local...     

国际商事仲裁裁决效力考辨

关于“国际性”与“商事”内涵的界定，已呈现出由国内标准向国际标准演进的趋势。此种趋势一方面导致了二者解释的逐步扩大，另一方面也促成各国对二者内涵的趋同认识。相比较而言，“裁决”内涵的界定受国内法影响较多，但仍应以“解决了纠纷”作为“裁决”的基本构成要件。建构在以上三个基本概念基础之上的国际商事仲裁裁决的效力，则主要是指裁决对当事人、各相关仲裁庭和法院所产生的保护力、拘束力和执行力，     

An omnibus lack of fit test in logistic regression with sparse data

The usefulness of logistic regression depends to a great extent on the correct specification of the relation between a binary response and characteristics of the unit on which the response is recoded. Currently used methods for testing for misspecification (lack of fit) of a proposed logistic regression model do not perform well when a data set contains almost as many distinct covariate vectors as experimental units, a condition referred to as sparsity. A new algorithm for grouping sparse data to create pseudo replicates and using them to test for lack of fit is developed. A simulation study illustrates settings in which the new test is superior to existing ones. Analysis of a dataset consisting of the ages of menarche of Warsaw girls is also used to compare the new and existing lack of fit tests.     

徐家围子断陷油气运移体系及成藏模式分析

在对含油气组合特征和成藏要素配置关系综合分析基础上，根据断陷盆地发育特征以及天然气藏形成的主控因素，重点分析了地震泵对油气纵向运移的影响，建立了该区油气藏成藏模式，本区发育的油气藏类型主要有构造气藏，岩性气藏和由构造、岩性二者共同控制作用的构造—岩性气藏、地层超覆油气藏以及基岩风化壳油气藏。徐家围子断陷两期构造运动进而形成了正反转构造，为油气提供了良好的构造圈闭及纵向疏导通道。沙河子组共经历了3 次生排烃高峰，第一次由于强烈的构造活动，没有聚集成藏，后两次在其他成藏要素的配合下，最终得以聚集成藏。     

基于企业社会责任的闭环供应链超网络均衡模型

文章为研究企业社会责任对闭环供应链总体效率及决策行为的影响,考虑到多层多成员多目标决策的闭环供应链网络中同层非合作竞争决策者,以利润最大、排放废气最小、风险最小为目标,构建了由供应商、制造商、零售商、需求市场和回收商组成的超网络模型.该模型利用均衡理论及变分不等式的方法分析各层决策者的独立决策行为及其相互作用,并通过改进的投影梯度算法求得均衡点.通过三个算例分析得出企业社会责任水平对产品的交易平衡和价格水平的影响.     

Can We Perceive Near Miss? An Empirical Study

Near misses are a special kind of reinforcement which increases one’s desire to play. The aim of this paper is to examine the perception of near misses in normal population. We used a slot machine simulation running on a PC, where participants had to play four rounds with different near miss ratios (0, 15, 30 and 45%). Our sample consisted of 159 individuals with mean age of 22.8 and with no or little gambling experience. For data analysis we used chi-squared goodness-of-fit test and exact binomial test. Despite the fact, that there was a notable effect of near misses results showed that the subjects could not perceive trials of them.     

Too Scared or Too Capable? Why Do College Students Stay Away from the H1N1 Vaccine?

Although college students were among the populations that had the highest frequency of infection for H1N1 influenza, only 8% of them received H1N1 vaccine this past flu season nationwide. During the peak of this pandemic, information about H1N1 vaccine was widely available. However, knowledge test and behavioral data indicated that most college students were not equipped with basic facts about H1N1 and the H1N1 vaccine. To investigate socio‐psychological factors that might have deterred this high‐risk population from learning about and getting the H1N1 vaccine, this study tested the utility of a risk information seeking model in addressing this health communication problem. Data collected from an online survey of 371 college students showed that respondents seemed to overestimate how much they knew about the vaccine. Risk information seeking, however, positively influenced their intentions to get the vaccine. Results suggested that to communicate effectively to this population, it is important to emphasize the difference between perceived knowledge and actual knowledge, monitor emotional responses to potential risks, and promote getting flu vaccination as a socially desirable behavior.     

隋唐道教术数学派与传统数学关系考论

关于隋唐时期道教在传统数学领域作出的贡献,学术界已有较多的探讨,然仍显不足。要言之,隋唐道教术数学派坚信术数与数学互为表里,通过"算"、"数"之共性将术数、数学融为一体,并以兼摄数学之术数求道证道。这些思想使得其自身在传统数学(包括天文历算)的理论和实践上作出了一定的贡献,也影响了传统数学的精神气质和发展趋势。而道教术数学派在术数、数学上的研究,对道教自身的发展也有着重要的意义。