Estimating the First- and Second-Order Parameters of a Heavy-Tailed Distribution

This paper suggests censored maximum likelihood estimators for the first‐ and second‐order parameters of a heavy‐tailed distribution by incorporating the second‐order regular variation into the censored likelihood function. This approach is different from the bias‐reduced maximum likelihood method proposed by Feuerverger and Hall in 1999. The paper derives the joint asymptotic limit for the first‐ and second‐order parameters under a weaker assumption. The paper also demonstrates through a simulation study that the suggested estimator for the first‐order parameter is better than the estimator proposed by Feuerverger and Hall although these two estimators have the same asymptotic variances.     

On a system of nonhomogeneous components sharing a common frailty

The components of a reliability system subjected to a common random environment usually have dependent lifetimes. This paper studies the stochastic properties of such a system with lifetimes of the components following multivariate frailty models and multivariate mixed proportional reversed hazard rate (PRHR) models, respectively. Through doing stochastic comparison, we devote to throwing a new light on how the random environment affects the number of working components of a reliability system and on assessing the performance of a k-out-of-n system.     

Jackknife empirical likelihood tests for distribution functions

It has been a long history for testing whether the underlying distribution belongs to a particular family. In this paper, we propose some jackknife empirical likelihood tests via estimating equations. The proposed new tests allow one to add more relevant constraints so as to improve the powers. A simulation study shows the effectiveness of the new tests.     

An optimal selection of two-level regular single arrays for robust parameter experiments

Efforts have been made in the literature to find optimal single arrays which work best for the robust parameter experiments. However, examples show that in many cases the optimal designs obtained by the existing criteria cloud not attain the maximum number of clear interested effects for robust parameter experiments. In this paper, through a similar way of Zhang et al. (2008) (ZLZA, in short), an aliasing pattern to measure the confounding between the interested effects and other effects for the case of robust parameter designs is introduced. A new criterion for selecting optimal two-level regular single arrays is proposed. In the consideration of the criterion, two rank-orders of effects are suggested: one is based on the interest of experimenters and the other is under the usual effect hierarchy principle. The optimal designs are tabulated in the appendix.     

Semiparametric Estimation Methods for the Accelerated Failure Time Mixture Cure Model

This paper provides an overview of two semiparametric estimation methods recently proposed in the literature for the accelerated failure time mixture cure model. We prove that the two estimation methods are asymptotically equivalent. A simulation is conducted to investigate the rate of convergence of the two methods. We apply these methods to fit the accelerated failure time mixture cure model to the survival times of leukemia patients receiving bone marrow transplantation.     

基本养老保险制度对个人退休行为的激励程度研究

退休制度改革的一个关键问题是基本养老保险制度对个人退休行为的激励程度。作者通过测算九大行业代表性个体在不同退休年龄的养老保险替代率和边际隐性税率,得到以下结论：我国现行基本养老保险制度对个人退休行为存在普遍的负面激励作用,即会增加提前退休行为出现的概率,并且这种负面激励作用存在着很大的行业差异性,低收入行业的职工面临着更严重的负面激励。在这些结论的基础上,作者对弹性退休制度的精算中性原则进行了反思,并建议我国在进行弹性退休制度设计的时候,既要消除养老保险制度的负激励作用,又要注意保护低收入行业职工的权益。     

论高校教工与学生党建的双向互动

高校党建以教工党建与学生党建的双向互动为创新思路,实现高校教工党建与学生党建的有机和谐发展。双向互动就是在一定的开放信息体之内,双方相与倾诉,相与倾听,循环交流,往复传达的境界,这种交往式的信息流动,能够达成一种良性共识,向更高的认知领域推进。高校教工党建与学生党建的双向互动是一个复合系统。高校教工党建与学生党建双向互动的现实基础在于：经济全球化浪潮,网络时代的到来,构建和谐社会。实现高校教工党建与学生党建双向互动的途径是：发挥高校里面党的领导核心作用;发挥教工基层组织的模范作用;发掘学生基层党组织的潜在活力;加强党员辅导员、班主任队伍建设;利用高校教学科研的优势资源;搭建网络世界广阔的互动平台。     

基于经济极限产量的油田生产优化决策研究

当油田开采进入中后期,含水率逐渐升高,开采难度逐渐加大,油田进入低产期。随着开采的逐步推进,产量将降低到经济极限产量,若继续开采,油田将出现负效益生产的不利局面。针对这一现状,以Arps双曲递减法、广义卡彼托夫公式法等油田产量预测模型为依据,对影响经济极限产量的因素进行综合分析;利用投入产出平衡原理推导出经济极限产量关于成本、油价的函数关系,并确定最优产量下的成本、油价临界值,降低经济极限产量。对延长油田开采年限、增加经济可采储量、提高产油量、增加经济效益等油田开发规划研究具有一定的参考价值。     

论诗绝句的集成与绝唱——陈融《读岭南人诗绝句》的批评史和文体史意义

陈融《读岭南人诗绝句》具有独特的文献价值：系统清理和记载岭南诗人诗事及有关史事,表现出明确系统的载记乡邦文献、传承地方文化意识;对某些珍稀文献和重要史实进行准确记录和中肯评述,留下重要的文献线索,澄清重要的历史事实,补苴了以往载记之不足。《读岭南人诗绝句》还表现出相当明确的批评观念：以爱古人而不薄近人的评判态度,力图全面详尽地展现岭南人的诗歌创作风貌;以明确的价值判断标准和诗学评骘尺度,表现出对岭南诗人诗作某些核心价值的深度认可或期待;以通达的眼光和明确的诗史意识,对各派诗人与各种人物采取兼收并蓄的态度,以存人事与史事之真实;注意记载和考辨与岭南诗坛相关的非岭南人物或事件,表现出明晰的中国文学与文化整体意识。《读岭南人诗绝句》是中国历代论诗绝句的一个精彩总结,不仅在岭南文学批评史、文体史和文学史上具有标志性意义,而且在整个中国文学批评史、文体史和文学史上也是前无古人、后无来者的成就,堪称中国历代论诗绝句的集大成之作。     

基于供应链中不确定性的生产计划研究

供应链管理环境下的企业,将面临复杂多变的市场环境,信息的多源性、多态性和不确定性,增加了其在供应链环境下制定生产计划的复杂性和难度。其中,供应链信息的不确定性表现形式主要有:下游需求的不确定性供应商的不确定性、计划的不确定性,以及生产的不确定性。为了降低企业生产计划的确定性应该做到以下几个方面:增强市场预测的准确度,直接从市场获取信息,减少中间环节;建立合理的生产管理制度,提高计划系统的信息化水平;生产过程的优化与控制;采用滚动式柔性计划方法。