Estimation of the cumulative incidence function under multiple dependent and independent censoring mechanisms

Competing risks occur in a time-to-event analysis in which a patient can experience one of several types of events. Traditional methods for handling competing risks data presuppose one censoring process, which is assumed to be independent. In a controlled clinical trial, censoring can occur for several reasons: some independent, others dependent. We propose an estimator of the cumulative incidence function in the presence of both independent and dependent censoring mechanisms. We rely on semi-parametric theory to derive an augmented inverse probability of censoring weighted (AIPCW) estimator. We demonstrate the efficiency gained when using the AIPCW estimator compared to a non-augmented estimator via simulations. We then apply our method to evaluate the safety and efficacy of three anti-HIV regimens in a randomized trial conducted by the AIDS Clinical Trial Group, ACTG A5095.     

中国城镇新增住房需求规模的测算与分析

本文围绕城镇家庭户自然增长、城镇家庭户机械增长和城镇存量住房拆除三项需求来源,设计了基于人口普查等公开统计数据定量测算城镇新增住房需求规模的系统性方法,对2001—2010年和2011—2015年间全国和各省份城镇新增住房需求规模进行测算与分析。在此期间新增住房供需关系经历了从基本均衡向供过于求的变化,同时存量住房拆除引致的被动需求取代城镇家庭户自然增长和机械增长引致的主动需求,成为新增住房需求的最主要来源。东、中、西部省份在新增需求规模、新增供需比、需求结构等方面表现出明显差异。本文还进一步对2021—2030年的发展趋 势进行了定量预测。由于三项需求来源均趋于下降,2021—2025年和2026—2030年间全国年均城镇新增住房需求规模预计将较2011—2015年间分别下降33%和53%。本文设计的城镇新增住房需求规模测算方法和预测思路能够为各级政府“十四五”住房发展规划编制、房地产企业战略制定等提供参考。     

基于HHM-RFRM的船舶航行风险评估方法研究

船舶航行风险是由各种风险因素交互作用产生。综合 HHM-RFRM 理论，构建船舶航行多维风险情景危险度测度模型，以风险因素耦合视角探讨船舶航行风险管理问题。在船舶航行多维风险情景危险度测度模型中结合贝叶斯定理，对船舶航行风险情景进行了定性与定量化过滤、评级。最后以大连港某从事商务活动的货船为例，验证了所提出方法的可行性。传统的风险评估方法只能评估单个风险因素对系统的影响，此评估方法克服了这一局限性，为船舶航行风险管理提供新的视角。     

英语访谈中零回指的研究

零回指是指用零代词充当回指词的回指形式,它具有代词的句法特征,但没有实际语音形式,对此回指的理解,直接影响到听者对话语的理解.旨在根据可及性理论,并结合语料中零回指先行语的句法位置,以解读英语访谈中零回指现象.通过分析语料中的395个零回指例子,发现零回指大多出现在近距离语境中;绝大多数零代词出现在主语/主题位置;零回指大多发生在无干扰性名词短语的语境中;零回指的使用具有简洁与明晰的修辞意义.     

PROVIDING GLOBAL PUBLIC GOODS: ELECTORAL DELEGATION AND COOPERATION

This study experimentally examines the effect of electoral delegation on providing global public goods shared by several groups. Each group elects one delegate who can freely decide on each group member's contribution to the global public goods. Our results show that people mostly vote for delegates who assign equal contributions for every group member. However, in contrast to standard theoretical predictions for our delegation mechanism, unequal contributions across groups drive cooperation down over time, and it decreases efficiency by almost 50% compared to the selfish benchmark. This pattern is not driven by delegates trying to exploit their fellow group members, as indicated by theory. It is driven by conditional cooperation of delegates across groups. Since one of the potential sources of the resulting inefficiency is the polycentric nature of global public goods provision together with other‐regarding preferences, we use the term P‐inefficiency to describe our finding. (JEL C92, D72, H41)     

Evidence-based practice in Chinese social work: overcoming language and developmental barriers

This scoping review followed Cochrane guidelines to comprehensively assess the use and understanding of Evidence-Based Practice (EBP) in Chinese social science literature. We conducted a research across three electronic databases and three major social science journals for the studies published between 2004 and 2016. Chinese social work literature demonstrates a precise understanding of EBP defined as a process, but it lacks comprehensive discussions about EBP that extend beyond basic principles and process definitions. We identified language barriers and developmental issues for social work in China that contribute to these incomplete discussions. We examined the importance of broadening and enriching the discussions around EBP, especially for Chinese educators, researchers, and clinicians involved with empirically supported treatments. We also consider the implications of our findings for the development of social work in China.     

互动视角下构式压制和承继的合力机制——基于羡余否定构式“好不X”封闭语料库的研究

构式与其组构成分间的互动关系一直是构式语法关注的核心问题之一。Goldberg在构式语法理论框架中提出了动词与构式的双向互动观，但在实际论述中却过于强调构式对动词的单向压制，降低了动词义对构式生成的贡献，忽略了对构式组构成分的系统研究。以构式与其组构成分间的互动关系为视点，从构式压制与承继的辩证关系出发，进一步阐释图示构式生成是构式与组构成分在互动压制和多重承继合力作用下的结果。同时，基于封闭语料库穷尽分析汉语羡余否定构式"好不X"的特征，结果表明：构式压制与词汇压制是双向互动的；图示构式特征的形成取决于构式对其组构成分的多重动态承继；图示构式基于互动压制承继合力机制的形成。     

老年患者临床诊疗中近亲属参与决策的伦理问题

老年人存在年龄大、共病多、身体机能整体下降的情况，在疾病的临床诊疗过程中，由于医学常识不足、沟通不够顺畅以及家庭经济状况或成员组成等因素的影响，很多受疾病困扰的老年患者可能存在不能顺利或自主作出医疗决策的问题或困难。文章阐述了医学伦理学在医疗决策中的意义，分析了临床中常见的医疗决策模式，从医学伦理学视角探讨老年患者在就医或疾病诊治过程中近亲属参与决策的现状。提出老年患者近亲属参与医学决策的必要性以及面临的伦理问题，并针对这些伦理问题提出相应的对策建议，以期能够帮助老年人解决实际困难，改善当前的医患关系，从而使老年人在就医中感受到人文关怀，真正实现社会的文明和谐。     

中国特色社会主义进入新时代的制度之基

中国特色社会主义制度之基的确立,大体经历了三个时期:中国资产阶级民主制度的行不通、新民主主义制度形态的逻辑演进,为中国社会主义制度的建立提供了充分的政治缘由和历史根据;中国社会主义基本制度是党和人民在相继取得新民主主义革命、社会主义革命和建设伟大胜利的基础上创立的;中国特色社会主义制度的创新发展,是中国特色社会主义在制度上的集中体现,充分展示了这一制度的特色与优势.深入理解和把握中国特色社会主义进入新时代的制度之基,具有重要的价值和意义.