Noninformative priors for the common mean in the bivariate normal distribution

In this paper, we consider some noninformative priors for the common mean in a bivariate normal population. We develop the first-order and second-order matching priors and reference priors. We find that the second-order matching prior is also an HPD matching prior, and matches the alternative coverage probabilities up to the second order. It turns out that derived reference priors do not satisfy a second-order matching criterion. Our simulation study indicates that the second-order matching prior performs better than the reference priors in terms of matching the target coverage probabilities in a frequentist sense. We also illustrate our results using real data.     

Objective Bayesian inference for the ratio of the scale parameters of two Weibull distributions

The Weibull distribution is widely used due to its versatility and relative simplicity. In our paper, the non informative priors for the ratio of the scale parameters of two Weibull models are provided. The asymptotic matching of coverage probabilities of Bayesian credible intervals is considered, with the corresponding frequentist coverage probabilities. We developed the various priors for the ratio of two scale parameters using the following matching criteria: quantile matching, matching of distribution function, highest posterior density matching, and inversion of test statistics. One particular prior, which meets all the matching criteria, is found. Next, we derive the reference priors for groups of ordering. We see that all the reference priors satisfy a first-order matching criterion and that the one-at-a-time reference prior is a second-order matching prior. A simulation study is performed and an example given.     

利他主义救助的法律干预

对利他主义救助进行法律干预,应着眼于提高救助收益或降低救助成本。可以设想的法律对策主要包括:设定关于利他主义救助的法律义务,对见危不救实施惩罚;为救助行为提供法律保护,包括减免救助人因疏忽大意而产生的赔偿责任,加重被救助人起诉救助人时的举证负担,以及惩罚被救助人的诬陷或讹诈行为;赋予救助人赔偿请求权,或由政府给予奖励。分析表明,赋予救助人以求偿权不如由政府奖励救助行为;对救助行为提供法律保护优于为救助行为设定法律义务。     

虚拟思维是实践思维的新形态

"用实践的眼光看待一切"的实践思维,是马克思哲学用来分析和把握世界的一种基本方法。它源自实践,随着实践的发展而发展,在不同时代表现出不同的形式。虚拟思维是当代人类实践活动的催生物,是实践思维在当代的新发展、新形态。     

盲人摸象与成竹在胸:分科治学下学术的细碎化与整体性

近代以来,分科治学,已成体制,纵横两面,相互隔膜。所做学问,或许符合后出外来的学科轨则,却不理解前人的习惯做派。诩为占领制高点的专家之学,渐成割据分封,画地为牢,而占山为王与落草为寇实无二致。至于所谓跨学科,则往往是坐井观天,或踉跄跳跃,以局部求通论,以归纳代贯通,势必以偏概全,看朱成碧。分科治学之下,学人的眼界日趋狭隘,没有成竹在胸,难免盲人摸象,无法庖丁解牛;刻舟求剑、缘木求鱼之事,日益习以为常,甚至天经地义。博而后约,以专致精,由精求通,整体之下探究局部,仍为治学取法乎上的不二法门。如此,才能接续前贤的未竟之业,以免日暮时分盲人骑瞎马行险道,将天边的浮云误认作树林,或以找漏洞、寻破绽、钻空子、对着干为治学的正道坦途。     

Noninformative priors for linear combinations of normal means with unequal variances

For normal populations with unequal variances, we develop matching priors and reference priors for a linear combination of the means. Here, we find three second-order matching priors: a highest posterior density (HPD) matching prior, a cumulative distribution function (CDF) matching prior, and a likelihood ratio (LR) matching prior. Furthermore, we show that the reference priors are all first-order matching priors, but that they do not satisfy the second-order matching criterion that establishes the symmetry and the unimodality of the posterior under the developed priors. The results of a simulation indicate that the second-order matching prior outperforms the reference priors in terms of matching the target coverage probabilities, in a frequentist sense. Finally, we compare the Bayesian credible intervals based on the developed priors with the confidence intervals derived from real data.     

"五都"选后岛内政局走向探析

2010年11月27日,岛内进行"五都"选举,国民党取得台北、新北、台中三席,民进党保住高雄、台南两市.由于岛内政治势力都对此次选举高度重视,因而选举结果对岛内政局及两岸关系的和平发展都将产生深远的影响.一是"蓝消绿长"态势趋缓,国、民两党实力趋于平衡.此次选举,国民党如愿守住三市,尤其打赢了关键性的"台北保卫战",有助于其稳住阵脚,止住实力急剧下滑的不利趋势;民进党方面虽然没有取得预定目标,但是保住高雄、台南两市,且得票率和得票数反超国民党,生命力和战斗力明显加强.二是蓝绿双双危机感加重,未来"保权"与"夺权"之争将异常激烈.国民党方面,其总得票数少于民进党,在北部的领先优势缩小,在南部的差距拉大;民进党方面,在气势如虹的状态下未能实现预期目标,在南部还一度出现了党内分裂的危机.因此,面对2012年大选,两党的危机感都在加重.三是岛内二元政治格局已成,第三势力发展空间有限,中间选民的选择将对选举产生越来越大的影响.四是和平发展两岸关系的潮流无法逆转,但是未来发展的变数仍多.此次选举结果有助于增强马英九继续发展两岸关系的决心,但在今后的选举中,两岸关系仍然可能成为一个敏感议题被进行政治操弄.五是此次选举,陈致中高票当选高雄市议员,江志铭当选台北市议员等等,显示"台独"势力在今后很长一个时期都不会自行消亡或沉寂,必须高度警惕.     

寻衅滋事罪的适用与改造

认定寻衅滋事罪的根本在于是否侵犯社会秩序法益。寻衅滋事罪在司法适用过程中存在司法行为的界定模糊、对“公共场所”的解释不一致等问题。在司法适用的过程中,应尽可能地在刑法条文的框架下合理解释口袋罪名,规范适用目的解释方法,适度限制实质解释和扩张解释的冲动。     

论和谐民族观

就民族工作来说,建设社会主义和谐社会,必须树立与落实和谐民族观,处理好民族问题,做好民族工作。要以科学发展观为指导,在中国特色社会主义的伟大事业中,创建平等、团结、互助、和谐的社会主义民族关系,从而为构建社会主义和谐社会提供坚实的民族基础。