Generalized Laplacian approximations in Bayesian inference

This paper presents a new Laplacian approximation to the posterior density of η = g(θ). It has a simpler analytical form than that described by Leonard et al. (1989). The approximation derived by Leonard et al. requires a conditional information matrix R_η to be positive definite for every fixed η. However, in many cases, not all R_η are positive definite. In such cases, the computations of their approximations fail, since the approximation cannot be normalized. However, the new approximation may be modified so that the corresponding conditional information matrix can be made positive definite for every fixed η. In addition, a Bayesian procedure for contingency-table model checking is provided. An example of cross-classification between the educational level of a wife and fertility-planning status of couples is used for explanation. Various Laplacian approximations are computed and compared in this example and in an example of public school expenditures in the context of Bayesian analysis of the multiparameter Fisher-Behrens problem.     

EDITH WHARTON'S SICK ROLE

In this article, we conduct a textual analysis of Edith Wharton's 1911 novel, Ethan Frome . We offer three readings. The first presents Wharton's account of illness through a framework developed foru decades later by Talcott Parsons. Wharton's sick role was less medico-centric than Parsons; it emphasized the importance of class, gender and community in defining and legitimizing the sick role. Our second reading explores the socially constructed nature of roles in illness. The sick role as portrayed by Wharton is not the social fact later conceived by Parsons, but a social construct with no determinate reference beyond that which the local community is willing to grant it. Our third reading examines the social context, particularly the power relations, within which this story of illness has been constructed.     

Influence of behavioural tactics on recruitment and reproductive trajectory in the kittiwake

Many studies have provided evidence that, in birds, inexperienced breeders have a lower probability of breeding successfully. This is often explained by lack of skills and knowledge, and sometimes late laying dates in the first breeding attempt. There is growing evidence that in many species with deferred reproduction, some prebreeders attend breeding places, acquire territories and form pairs. Several behavioural tactics assumed to be associated with territory acquisition have been described in different species. These tactics may influence the probability of recruiting in the breeding segment of the population, age of first breeding, and reproductive success in the first breeding attempt. Here we addressed the influence of behaviour ('squatting') during the prebreeding period on demographic parameters (survival and recruitment probability) in a long-lived colonial seabird species: the kittiwake. We also investigated the influence of behaviour on reproductive trajectory. Squatters have a higher survival and recruitment probability, and a higher probability of breeding successfully in the first breeding attempt in all age-classes where this category is represented. The influence of behaviour is mainly expressed in the first reproduction. However, there is a relationship between breeding success in the first occasion and subsequent occasions. The influence of breeding success in the first breeding attempt on the rest of the trajectory may indirectly reflect the influence of behaviour on breeding success in the first occasion. The shape of the reproductive trajectory is influenced by behaviour and age of first breeding. There is substantial individual variation from the mean reproductive trajectory, which is accounted for by heterogeneity in performance among individuals in the first attempt, but there is no evidence of individual heterogeneity in the rate of change over time in performance in subsequent breeding occasions     

WOMEN ATHLETES AS FALSELY ACCUSED DEVIANTS: Managing the Lesbian Stigma

As the behavior of women athletes is often interpreted to violate gender norms, women athletes are frequently devalued and stigmatized. The present study examines the manner in which such devaluation and stigmatization impact on women athletes and how these athletes manage the lesbian label attached to their sport participation. In-depth telephone interviews were conducted with 24 intercollegiate athletes from three Division I universities. Processes underlying athletes' responses parallel Becker's construction of the "falsely accused deviant" and Goffman's conceptualization of "stigma management." Factors leading to false accusation of lesbianism are discussed, as well as the various mechanisms utilized by athletes to manage the lesbian label.     

Will taxpayers ever like taxes?: Responses to the U.S. Tax Reform Act of 1986

Major policy changes like the 1986 Tax Reform Act (TRA) in the United States provide natural experiments to study attitudinal and behavior responses to law. Surprisingly, public evaluations of the TRA became increasingly negative after passage, while general support for the tax system became more positive in response to the changes. To explain this puzzle, we propose a dynamic model of taxpayer attitudes that is consistent with the observed loose linkage between logically-connected concepts. We briefly review the political context, objectives and impacts of the 1986 Tax Reform Act, and present several studies testing the impact of self-interest, prior beliefs, and social discussion on changes in attitudes and behavior.Results suggest that the complexity of taxes and difficulty in knowing objective impacts weakens the role of self-interest in attitudinal changes, thereby strengthening the role of prior beliefs and discussion. Evaluations of tax laws are most responsive to more politically-oriented influences.     

Estimation of noncentrality parameters

We propose some estimators of noncentrality parameters which improve upon usual unbiased estimators under quadratic loss. The distributions we consider are the noncentral chi-square and the noncentral F. However, we give more general results for the family of elliptically contoured distributions and propose a robust dominating estimator.     

ONE LUMP OR TWO: UNITARY VERSUS BIFURCATED MEASURES OF INJURY AT THE USITC

The most popular methodology used by the US International Trade Commission (USITC) commissioners to determine whether dumped and/or subsidized imports injure competing domestic industries has been rejected by reviewing bodies because it does not distinguish injury caused by unfairly traded imports from other demand or supply changes. We estimate injury to the domestic industry due to changes in unfairly traded import price and to other causes for 44 USITC dumping and/or subsidy investigations. Change in unfairly traded import price was typically not the most important cause of injury to the domestic industry. (JEL F13 )     

Effects of Medicaid managed care policies on mental health service use among a national probability sample of children in the child welfare system

Children in the child welfare system are dependent upon Medicaid to finance services for their considerable mental health needs. This study examines the effects of Medicaid policies on mental health service use among a national probability sample of children in the child welfare system. Data for this study came from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being, the Caring for Children in Child Welfare study, and the Area Resource File. Weighted multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to estimate effects of policy variables on children's use of mental health services, controlling for child-level covariates and county-level health resources. Children in counties with behavioral carve-outs under Medicaid managed care had lower odds of inpatient mental health service use. Medicaid managed care enrollment and variations in type of provider reimbursement did not affect use of mental health services. Older age, greater need for mental health services, and higher levels of caregiver education were associated with increased odds of service use. Restrictions on use of inpatient mental healthcare caused by behavioral carve-outs may disproportionately affect children in the child welfare system who have high rates of such use. Careful adoption of carve-outs is necessary to assure appropriate care for these children.