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21.
22.
John D. Emerson David C. Hoaglin Frederick Mosteller 《Statistical Methods and Applications》1993,2(3):269-290
Summary Meta-analyses of sets of clinical trials often combine risk differences from several 2×2 tables according to a random-effects
model. The DerSimonian-Laird random-effects procedure, widely used for estimating the populaton mean risk difference, weights
the risk difference from each primary study inversely proportional to an estimate of its variance (the sum of the between-study
variance and the conditional within-study variance). Because those weights are not independent of the risk differences, however,
the procedure sometimes exhibits bias and unnatural behavior. The present paper proposes a modified weighting scheme that
uses the unconditional within-study variance to avoid this source of bias. The modified procedure has variance closer to that
available from weighting by ideal weights when such weights are known. We studied the modified procedure in extensive simulation
experiments using situations whose parameters resemble those of actual studies in medical research. For comparison we also
included two unbiased procedures, the unweighted mean and a sample-size-weighted mean; their relative variability depends
on the extent of heterogeneity among the primary studies. An example illustrates the application of the procedures to actual
data and the differences among the results.
This research was supported by Grant HS 05936 from the Agency for Health Care Policy and Research to Harvard University. 相似文献
23.
John S. J. HSU 《Revue canadienne de statistique》1995,23(4):399-410
This paper presents a new Laplacian approximation to the posterior density of η = g(θ). It has a simpler analytical form than that described by Leonard et al. (1989). The approximation derived by Leonard et al. requires a conditional information matrix Rη to be positive definite for every fixed η. However, in many cases, not all Rη are positive definite. In such cases, the computations of their approximations fail, since the approximation cannot be normalized. However, the new approximation may be modified so that the corresponding conditional information matrix can be made positive definite for every fixed η. In addition, a Bayesian procedure for contingency-table model checking is provided. An example of cross-classification between the educational level of a wife and fertility-planning status of couples is used for explanation. Various Laplacian approximations are computed and compared in this example and in an example of public school expenditures in the context of Bayesian analysis of the multiparameter Fisher-Behrens problem. 相似文献
24.
Major policy changes like the 1986 Tax Reform Act (TRA) in the United States provide natural experiments to study attitudinal and behavior responses to law. Surprisingly, public evaluations of the TRA became increasingly negative after passage, while general support for the tax system became more positive in response to the changes. To explain this puzzle, we propose a dynamic model of taxpayer attitudes that is consistent with the observed loose linkage between logically-connected concepts. We briefly review the political context, objectives and impacts of the 1986 Tax Reform Act, and present several studies testing the impact of self-interest, prior beliefs, and social discussion on changes in attitudes and behavior.Results suggest that the complexity of taxes and difficulty in knowing objective impacts weakens the role of self-interest in attitudinal changes, thereby strengthening the role of prior beliefs and discussion. Evaluations of tax laws are most responsive to more politically-oriented influences. 相似文献
25.
The present studies examined children's and adults' preferences for gender- or age-based categorization using similarity and inductive inference tasks. Four-year-olds, 6-year-olds, and adults looked at pictures of people and decided which of two was more like a target (similarity condition) or which shared a novel age- or gender-related property with the target (inference condition). Age or gender-based matches were possible. The results are consistent with previous findings that gender-based classification decreases with age. However, they also demonstrate that children use gender more for judging similarity than for making inferences about novel properties. Distinct patterns emerge from the two tasks: 6-year-olds and adults in both conditions categorize more by age than gender; 4-year-olds categorize by gender more than age in the similarity task, but by age more in the induction task. Only adults differentiated by property in the inference condition. These findings suggest that the salience of gender categories cannot entirely be attributed to their inductive potential. Gender has a salience beyond what would be predicted by its power for directing novel generalizations. 相似文献
26.
Ramesh Raghavan Arleen A. Leibowitz Ronald M. Andersen Bonnie T. Zima Mark A. Schuster John Landsverk 《Children and youth services review》2006,28(12):1482-1496
Children in the child welfare system are dependent upon Medicaid to finance services for their considerable mental health needs. This study examines the effects of Medicaid policies on mental health service use among a national probability sample of children in the child welfare system. Data for this study came from the National Survey of Child and Adolescent Well-Being, the Caring for Children in Child Welfare study, and the Area Resource File. Weighted multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to estimate effects of policy variables on children's use of mental health services, controlling for child-level covariates and county-level health resources. Children in counties with behavioral carve-outs under Medicaid managed care had lower odds of inpatient mental health service use. Medicaid managed care enrollment and variations in type of provider reimbursement did not affect use of mental health services. Older age, greater need for mental health services, and higher levels of caregiver education were associated with increased odds of service use. Restrictions on use of inpatient mental healthcare caused by behavioral carve-outs may disproportionately affect children in the child welfare system who have high rates of such use. Careful adoption of carve-outs is necessary to assure appropriate care for these children. 相似文献
27.
Sarah Brown Karl Taylor 《Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A, (Statistics in Society)》2008,171(3):615-643
Summary. We explore the determinants of debt, financial assets and net worth at the household level by using survey data for Germany, Great Britain and the USA. To identify which households are potentially vulnerable to adverse changes in the economic environment, we also explore the determinants of a range of measures of financial pressure: the probability that a household has negative net worth; the debt-to-income ratio; mortgage income gearing; the saving-to-income ratio. Our empirical findings suggest that the poorest and the youngest households are the most vulnerable to adverse changes in their financial circumstances. 相似文献
28.
Individualised Support and Funding: building blocks for capacity building and inclusion 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
The paradigm in disability supports is shifting away from institutional services and professional control towards self-determination and community involvement of people with disabilities. The assumption that the best way to provide disability supports is for government to give money to agencies or services, rather than directly to people with disabilities and their support networks, is being challenged. This article reports on findings and themes from a Canadian study that investigated individualised funding projects from different parts of the world. Ten of fifteen of the most 'promising initiatives' were selected for more detailed study and analysis. Projects analysed were from Canada, the US, and Australia. Themes emerging from the study included the fact that values and principles mattered, a policy framework provided coherence and equity, infrastructure supports for individuals were separate from service system, the facilitator-broker role differed from case management, allocation of individualised funds was designed to be equitable and account able to the funder and person, and a 'learn as you go' philosophy maximised positive outcomes. This research project demonstrates that individualised support and funding, when embedded in the new paradigm of disability and community, builds capacity of individuals, families, and communities. 相似文献
29.
While shows like The X-Files and 24 have merged conspiracy theories with popular science (fictions), some video games have been pushing the narrative even further. Electronic Art's Majestic game was released in July 2001 and quickly generated media buzz with its unusual multi-modal gameplay. Mixing phone calls, faxes, instant messaging, real and "fake' websites, and email, the game provides a fascinating case of an attempt at new directions for gaming communities. Through story, mode of playing, and use of technology, Majestic highlights the uncertain status of knowledge, community and self in a digital age; at the same time, it allows examination of alternative ways of understanding games' role and purpose in the larger culture. Drawing on intricate storylines involving government conspiracies, techno-bio warfare, murder and global terror, players were asked to solve mysteries in the hopes of preventing a devastating future of domination. Because the game drew in both actual and Majestic-owned/-designed websites, it constantly pushed those playing the game right to borders where simulation collides with " factuality'. Given the wide variety of "legitimate' conspiracy theory, alien encounters and alternative science web pages, users often could not distinguish when they were leaving the game's pages and venturing into " real' World Wide Web sites. Its further use of AOL's instant messenger system, in which gamers spoke not only to bots but to other players, pushed users to evaluate constantly both the status of those they were talking to and the information being provided. Additionally, the game required players to occupy unfamiliar subject positions, ones where agency was attenuated, and which subsequently generated a multi-layered sense of unease among players. This mix of authentic and staged information in conjunction with technologically mediated roles highlights what are often seen as phenomenon endemic to the Internet itself; that is, the destabilization of categories of knowing, relating, and being. 相似文献
30.