The program effect of batterer programs in three cities

Recent meta-analyses and experimental designs of batterer program evaluations suggest little or no program effect. This finding may be compromised by a variety of analytical issues. Instrumental variable analysis addresses some of these issues, especially the relationship of program dropout to batterer reassault. This method of analysis was, therefore, used to test for program effect in a multi-site evaluation. The sites were three well-established batterer programs using a gender-based, cognitive-behavioral approach (n = 640). Completing a batterer program reduced the likelihood of reassault by 44% to 64%, depending on the specification used. Completing a 3-month program appeared to be as effective as completing a 5 1/2- or 9-month program. This moderate effect is an accomplishment considering the problems associated with the program participants and the inconsistency in the criminal justice system at the research sites. The findings remain tentative because of weak instrumental variables for reassault, but do confirm the need for more complex analyses of program effect.     

Psychiatric inpatients' experience of nursing observation. A United Kingdom perspective

1. Nursing observation is a key component of psychiatric inpatient nursing care. 2. Patients' experiences of being observed are strongly influenced by the attitudes and behaviors of the observing nurses. 3. Patients prefer to be observed by nurses they know and who talk to them.     

An interactive three-stage model for mutual funds portfolio selection

The aim of this work is to be a useful instrument for helping finance practitioners on the selection of suitable mutual fund portfolios. The portfolio selection problem is characterized by imprecision and/or vagueness inherent in the required data and more generally, in the context where investors have to make decisions. In order to mitigate these problems, a three stage model has been proposed based on a multi-index model and considering several market scenarios described in an imprecise way by an expert. The proposed fuzzy model allows the Decision Maker to select, by means of an outranking method, a suitable portfolio taking into account the uncertainty related to the market scenarios and the imprecision and/or vagueness associated with the model data.     

An individual-based model for competingDrosophila populations

An individual-based model forDrosophila is formulated, based on competition amongst larvae consuming the same batch of food. The predictions of the model are supported by data for single speciesDrosophila populations reared in the laboratory. The model is used to build a simple discrete model for the dynamics ofDrosophila populations that are kept over a number of generations. The dynamics of a single species is shown to give either a stable equilibrium or fluctuations which can be periodic or chaotic. When the dynamics of a species in the absence of the other is periodic or chaotic, we found coexistence or two alternative states, on neither of which the species can coexist.     

Model-based measurement of latent risk in time series with applications

Summary.  Risk is at the centre of many policy decisions in companies, governments and other institutions. The risk of road fatalities concerns local governments in planning countermeasures, the risk and severity of counterparty default concerns bank risk managers daily and the risk of infection has actuarial and epidemiological consequences. However, risk cannot be observed directly and it usually varies over time. We introduce a general multivariate time series model for the analysis of risk based on latent processes for the exposure to an event, the risk of that event occurring and the severity of the event. Linear state space methods can be used for the statistical treatment of the model. The new framework is illustrated for time series of insurance claims, credit card purchases and road safety. It is shown that the general methodology can be effectively used in the assessment of risk.     

Flexible SWAps for Strategic Policy‐making: Reflections on the Zambian Experience

This article offers an alternative view on the emergence of new forms of development co‐operation by analysing the emergence of SWAps in Zambia since the early 1990s. SWAps in Zambia emerged not as part of a grand design but in response to the changing environment in which aid agencies were operating. An examination of the relative success of the health and education SWAps and the spectacular failure of the agriculture SWAp suggests that a flexible approach is more effective than the imposition of a planning template. Furthermore, the failure of the agricultural SWAp has been followed by significant new forms of public/private partnership.     

Homosexual role separation: Implications for analyzing and modeling the spread of HIV

The analysis of the spread of HIV in homosexual populations must be based on knowledge of all factors which promote or inhibit transmission. Recently, data were reported from the Amsterdam cohort study that imply that sexual role separation and the changes therein should be taken into account in analyzing and modeling the spread of HIV. In this paper, a role separation mixing model is described and linked to data from the Amsterdam cohort. The model allows one to study the impact of homosexual role separation on the spread of HIV. The homosexual men are classified into four sexual subgroups based on the preference for: 1) no anal intercourse; 2) anal insertive only; 3) anal receptive only; 4) both insertive and receptive. The analysis accounts for variability and change in homosexual role behavior and loss to follow up. The results support the conjecture that there are large differences between the risks of receptive and insertive anal intercourse, with the latter carrying only minimal risk. The analysis indicates that the spread of HIV is mostly restricted to subgroup 4, the largest and sexually most active subgroup. In this subgroup, the estimated probability of HIV transmission from an infected insertive partner (in subgroup 2 or 4) to a receptive susceptible (in subgroup 4) is between 1 and 5 percent (assuming a closed cohort).