Managing an Aging Workforce and a Tight Labor Market: Views Held by Dutch Employers

Population Research and Policy Review -     

Predictability of demographic variables in the short run

In assessing the performance of population forecasts, it is useful to have a standard with which the forecast errors can be compared. Univariate time series models may provide such a standard. Mean forecast errors of time series models indicate to what extent the movement of a variable could have been predicted from its own past. These errors show the degree of predictability that is attainable, at least in a given period. In this paper three times series methods (exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins method, and structural time series models) are applied to Dutch data on births, deaths, marriages, immigrants, and emigrants. The variability of prediction errors between different periods is examined. The possibility that univariate predictions can be improved by using quarterly or monthly data instead of annual data is tested.     

The cross-national pattern of happiness: Test of predictions implied in three theories of happiness

Predictions about level and dispersion of happiness in nations are derived from three theories of happiness: comparison-theory, folklore-theory and livability-theory. The predictions are tested on two cross national data-sets: a comparative survey among university students in 38 nations in 1985 and a collection of comparable general population surveys in 28 nations around 1980. Most predictions of comparison-theory and folklore-theory are defied by the data. The predictions of livability-theory are all confirmed.     

The Influence of Advance Letters on Response in Telephone Surveys: A Meta-Analysis

Recently, the leading position of telephone surveys as the majormode of data collection has been challenged. Telephone surveyssuffer from a growing nonresponse, partly due to the generalnonresponse trend for all surveys and partly due to changesin society and technology influencing contactability and willingnessto answer. One way to counteract the increasing nonresponseis the use of an advance letter. In mail and face-to-face surveys,advance letters have been proven effective. Based on the proveneffectiveness in face-to-face and mail surveys, survey handbooksadvise the use of advance letters in telephone surveys. Thisstudy reviews the evidence for this advice and presents a quantitativesummary of empirical studies on the effectiveness of advanceletters in raising the response rate for telephone surveys.The major conclusion is that advance letters are also an effectivetool in telephone surveys, with an average increase in responserate (RR1) from 58 percent (no letter) to 66 percent (advanceletter), and an average increase in cooperation rate (COOP1)from 64 percent (no letter) to 75 percent (advance letter).     

Productivity of Older Workers: Perceptions of Employers and Employees

What determines the perceived productivity of the older worker and how does this perception compare to the perception of the productivity of the younger worker? In this study we present evidence based on data from Dutch employers and employees. Productivity perceptions are affected by one's age and one's position in the hierarchy. The young favor the young, the old favor the old, and employers value the productivity of workers less than employees do. However, there are also remarkable similarities across employers and employees. By distinguishing the various dimensions that underlie the productivity of younger and older workers, we tested whether soft qualities and abilities—e.g., reliability and commitment—are just as important as hard qualities—cognitive and physically based skills—in the eyes of both employers and employees. It appears that both employers and employees, young and old, view hard skills as far more important than soft skills.     

Overcoming the Problems of Inconsistent International Migration data: A New Method Applied to Flows in Europe

Due to differences in definitions and measurement methods, cross-country comparisons of international migration patterns are difficult and confusing. Emigration numbers reported by sending countries tend to differ from the corresponding immigration numbers reported by receiving countries. In this paper, a methodology is presented to achieve harmonised estimates of migration flows benchmarked to a specific definition of duration. This methodology accounts for both differences in definitions and the effects of measurement error due to, for example, under reporting and sampling fluctuations. More specifically, the differences between the two sets of reported data are overcome by estimating a set of adjustment factors for each country’s immigration and emigration data. The adjusted data take into account any special cases where the origin–destination patterns do not match the overall patterns. The new method for harmonising migration flows that we present is based on earlier efforts by Poulain (European Journal of Population, 9(4): 353–381 1993, Working Paper 12, joint ECE-Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics, Geneva, Switzerland 1999) and is illustrated for movements between 19 European countries from 2002 to 2007. The results represent a reliable and consistent set of international migration flows that can be used for understanding recent changes in migration patterns, as inputs into population projections and for developing evidence-based migration policies.     

Recovering the feminine other: masculinity,femininity, and gender hegemony

R. W. Connell’s path-breaking notion of multiple masculinities (Connell, 1995) and hegemonic masculinity (Connell, 1987, 1995) have been taken up as central constructs in the sociology of gender. Although there has been a great deal of empirical research and theory published that has built upon and utilized Connell’s concepts, an adequate conceptualization of hegemonic femininity and multiple femininities has not yet been developed. To redress this, the author presents a theoretical framework that builds upon the insights of Connell and others, offers a definition of hegemonic masculinity and hegemonic femininity that allows for multiple configurations within each, and that can be used empirically across settings and groups. The author also outlines how hegemonic masculinity and hegemonic femininity are implicated in and intersect with other systems of inequality such as class, race, and ethnicity.

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European Regional Populations: Current Trends, Future Pathways, and Policy Options

Europe is currently experiencing an ageing population and slowing population growth of both the total and working-age populations. These trends are likely to continue. Even though population ageing will affect all European regions, different regions will be affected in different ways. Even under favorable conditions, 35–40?% of all NUTS2 regions will face a labor force decline. If economic conditions are poor, some regions may continue to grow, but 55–70?% of the regions will see a labor force decline by 10?% or more. In most regions of Eastern Europe, the labor force may decrease by more than 30?%. To keep regions prosperous (maintaining competitiveness) and to avoid worse inequality (maintaining cohesion), policy-makers must find ways to cope with these challenges through new fiscal and social policies, though policies directly affecting demographic and migratory trends may also be needed.